89th Academy Awards Betting Odds and Picks to Win
Date/Time: Sunday, February 26th, 8:30 PM EST
Where: Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, CA
By Mike, Entertainment Handicapper, Predictem.com
With the Academy Awards just days away, below is a rundown of each of the nominees up for the four main acting awards along with the candidates for tops in movie and director. Odds in parentheses are provided by Bovada Sportsbook, where you can wager on sports, entertainment, online poker and casino games from the comfort of you own home! You will receive a generous 50% bonus up to $250 FREE too!
La La Land (1-7) – Received 14 total Oscar nominations, tied for the most in history with All About Eve and Titanic, both of which went on to win Best Picture (though of the 51 films to ever receive more than 10 nominations, less than half (25) have gone on to take home the top movie prize). It is easy to see why La La Land is such a big favorite, as it has already won for Best Picture at every major award show including the Golden Globe, Critic's Choice, BAFTA, DGA and PGA Awards.
Moonlight (5-1) – Has the highest Rotten Tomatoes rating of all the nominees, which unfortunately doesn't bode well for Moonlight, as the only twice in the past 23 years has the most critically acclaimed movie gone on to win for Best Picture. Took home the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Drama, which also hasn't equaled much success in recent years, with just four times in the past 12 years either the Golden Globe winner for Best Comedy OR Best Drama having gone on to win the Academy Award for Best Picture.
Hidden Figures (18-1) – Marks the fourth year in a row a NASA related movie has been nominated for Best Picture, following Gravity (2013), Interstellar (2014) and The Martin (2015), though Hidden Figures will be looking to become the first of any space movies to actually take home the award for the top movie with others in the past having come up short such as Apollo 13 and The Right Stuff.
Manchester by the Sea (20-1) – Deserves extra praise for not having a single person in the movie butcher the Boston accent, something that has been seemingly impossible to pull off throughout the history of movies and television and most attempting it eventually sounding like a mutant offspring of Southie inbreeding. Looking to keep the Massachusetts title town theme going and become the second straight movie to take place in the state to win Best Picture after Spotlight took home the award last year.
Fences (66-1) – Will be attempting to become just the third movie ever to win Best Picture that is based upon a winner of the Tony Award for Best Play, with the last being Amadeus in 1984. If Fences ends up taking home the prize for the top film, surprisingly it would be the first time ever that a movie with Denzel Washington in the cast will have won the award.
Arrival (75-1) – The extraterrestrial thrilled starring Amy Adams garnered eight Oscar nominations, which is tied for second most along with Moonlight, though despite a strong cast featuring previous nominees such as Adams, Jeremy Renner and 2007 winner for Best Actor Forest Whitaker, Arrival didn't earn a single nomination for acting.
Hacksaw Ridge (75-1) – If Hacksaw Ridge is able to win the Oscar for Best Picture, it would be the 19th war themed film to earn the award. The Hurt Locker was the last to win in 2009 and is the only one of its kind to have won since The English Patient in 1996 (though the streak should have started in 1998 with Saving Private Ryan, but in the worst snub in Oscar history it lost out to the heavy politicked and cheatily promoted Shakespeare in Love).
Hell or High Water (125-1) – The second highest rated movie according to Rotten Tomatoes, Hell or High Water yet finds itself with easily the worst odds of any movie up for Best Picture. A powerful performance by Jeff Bridges as a Texas Ranger attempting to track down two bank robbing brothers played by Ben Foster and Chris Pine may not win this year's award for top movie, but is still well worth your time and a viewing.
Emma Stone, La La Land (1-6) – For the past fourteen years in a row the Oscar winner for Best Actress has also won the Golden Globe award for the same, which bodes well for Stone having already won the Globe for a lead role. With La La Land expected to take home the award for Best Picture, Stone will be looking to break a recent trend in that only once in the past eighteen years has the winner of Best Actress come from the movie that won for top film.
Natalie Portman, Jackie (4-1) – The original favorite to win for Best Actress when odds were first released, Portman has since been passed by Stone as La La Land and everything associated with it gaining award season momentum. Portman already took home Best Actress for Jackie at that Critic's Choice Awards, though the winner of such has gone on to win the Oscar for the same only five times in the past nine years.
Isabelle Huppert, Elle (9-1) – The most nominated actress in Cesar Award history, which is given yearly to the best in French film, and is just one behind Gerard Depardieu for most all time, who leads all with 17 nominations total. Won this year's Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama, which puts her in the same trend category as Emma Stone with a Globe winner for Best Actress also taking home the Oscar for the same the past 14 years in a row.
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (40-1) –For her work in Florence Foster Jenkins, Streep added to her all time Oscar record with her 20th career nomination, and will be looking for her fourth time trophy after having previously won for her supporting role in Kramer vs. Kramer back in 1980 and lead roles in Sophie's Choice (1983) and The Iron Lady (2012).
Ruth Negga, Loving (45-1) – Past recipient of the Shooting Star Award at the Berlin Film Festival, with other winners including Daniel Craig, Rachel Weisz and last year's Oscar winner for Best Supporting Actress, Alicia Vikander. Negga was part of the cast of the 2012 Best Picture winner 12 Years a Slave, but unfortunately her scenes were cut from the final version of the film.
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (1-2)- Will be looking to win his first ever Oscar for his performance in Manchester by the Sea after already having taken home the award for the same at the Golden Globe and Critic's Choice awards. Winning the Golden Globe bodes well for Affleck, as the 12 of the last 13 years someone who took home the Globe for Best Actor also went on to win the Oscar as well..
Denzel Washington, Fences (EVEN MONEY) – Has as many Oscar nominations (seven) as the other four nominees combined and is only one to ever have won an Academy Award in the past after taking home Best Actor in 2001 for Training Day and Best Supporting Actor for Glory in 1990. Already won the SAG award for Best Actor, the winner of which has gone on to win the Oscar for the past 12 consecutive years.
Ryan Gosling, La La Land (18-1) – Between his nomination in 2006 for Best Actor for his work in Half Nelson and this year's for La La Land , Gosling sandwiched in a series of roles in various critically acclaimed movies such as Lars and the Real Girl, Blue Valentine, Drive, The Ides of March and The Big Short. He will be looking to become just the third actor in 16 years to win Best Actor for a role in a movie that also went on to win for Best Picture.
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (33-1) – Garfield has seen his stock rise substantially in recent years, and not just in Hollywood as he also earned a Tony Award nomination for Best Feature Actor in 2012 for Death of a Salesman. Of Garfield's last four non-superhero related movie roles, all four have scored over 80% on Rotten Tomatoes, and two of them, The Social Network in 2010 and now Hacksaw Ridge, also earning Garfield his first ever Oscar nominations.
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (100-1) – This is the second nomination for Best Actor that Mortensen has received in the past decade, after having been up for the award back in 2007 for his lead performance in Eastern Promises. Will be a fan favorite to win for not only the giant underdog odds but also for his role as Aragorn in the legendary Lord of the Rings trilogy of movies that went on to win 17 total Academy Awards including in 2003 when The Return of the King won all 11 Oscars it was nominated for.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences (1-30) – Davis is the biggest favorite of any actor/actress/movie up for a major award at this year's Oscars, and it's easy to understand why after already having won the SAG, Golden Globe and Critic's Choice award for her role in Fences. The last seven years in a row the SAG and Critic's Choice award have agreed on the winner for the Best Supporting Actress, and in all seven of those years the same person went on to win the Academy Award.
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (8-1) – Began her career with small roles in numerous stereotypical 90's TV shows such as Baywatch, Step by Step, Home Improvement before being cast as one of the main characters in the surprising hit Dawson's Creek. The nomination for Manchester by the Sea was her fourth in the past eleven years, starting with a supporting nod for Brokeback Mountain in 2005 and followed by lead noms for her work in Blue Valentine in 2010 and My Week With Marilyn in 2012.
Naomie Harris, Moonlight (15-1) – The Oscar nomination for Harris was the first of her career, making her the only one of the five up for the statue to be making a rookie appearance at the awards. Harris is also nominated this year for a Razzie Award, given yearly to the worst in film, for Worst Screen Combo as part of 'The Entire Cast of Once Respected Actors' in Collateral Beauty.
Nicole Kidman, Lion (33-1) – This is the fourth time Kidman has been nominated for an Academy Award, but the first time she has been up for a statue for a supporting role, having previously been nominated for the lead roles in Moulin Rouge and Rabbit Hole and having taken home the trophy for Best Actress in 2002 for The Hours.
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (50-1) – Previous winner for Best Supporting Actress back in 2011 for her role of Minny Jackson in The Help. Spencer is part of the cast of two movies nominates for Academy Awards this year, the best picture nominated Hidden Figures along with Zootopia, which is expected to take home this years' prize for Best Animated Feature.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (1-7) –The winner of the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor has won the Oscar for the same nine years in a row, but that streak will come to an end this year with this year's Globe winner, Aaron Taylor Johnson, not even nominated for an Academy Award. The next best trend is the winner of the Critics' Choice and SAG awards having been awarded to the same person as the Oscars for seven of the last nine years, of which Ali has already won both and looks to be a lock to take home the Academy Award as well.
Dev Patel, Lion (6-1) – Starred in Slumdog Millionaire in his first ever movie role, which won eight Oscar awards including Best Picture, but of the ten total nominations garnered for the film Patel was surprisingly not one of them. For his part in Lion, Patel became just the third ever Indian actor to earn an Oscar nomination, joining Sir Ben Kingsley and Merle Oberon.
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (14-1) – The veteran actor is the only one of the Best Supporting Actor nominees to ever have won an Academy Award, after having previously taking home the prize for lead actor in Crazy Heart in 2009, and has more career nominations with seven than the other four actors combined.
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (18-1) – Was seen acting in a middle school play by acclaimed director Wes Anderson, who would soon there after cast Hedges in his first role that made the big screen in Moonrise Kingdom. Two of Hedges' last three movies have been nominated for Best picture, Manchester by the Sea and another Anderson film, The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (18-1) – While Shannon received the Oscar nomination for his work in Nocturnal Animals, it was his costar Aaron Taylor-Johnson who was nominated and went on to win the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor for his work in the same film.
Damien Chazelle, La La Land (1-30) – Over the past thirteen years the winner of the DGA award for Best Director has won the Oscar for the same twelve times, and Chazelle has already taken home the DGA along with the Golden Globe, SAG and Critic's Choice.
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (10-1) – Jenkins earned the nomination for Moonlight in just the second movie he ever directed in his career, while also earning an additional nom for Best Adapted Screenplay, an award that Jenkins is a heavy favorite to take home on Oscar night.
Kenneth Longergan, Manchester by the Sea (10-1) – Longergan will be looking to see his movie become with fourth in eight years to win Best Director, Movie and Original Screenplay, the trio of which were recently pulled off by Birdman (2015), The King's Speech (2010) and The Hurt Locker (2009).
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (40-1) – This is Gibson's first Oscar nomination in 21 years after having won for Best Director in 1996 for Braveheart, which was one of the five awards the movie would win that year including the top prize for Best Picture. Hacksaw Ridge is just the fifth cinematic movie that Gibson has directed in his career and the first in ten years.
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (50-1)- After gaining his first ever Oscar nomination for his work on Arrival, Villeneuve will attempt to continue his mastery of the sci-fi genre by directing the heavily anticipated sequel to Blade Runner followed by a reboot of the 80s favorite Dune.
For those involved in Oscar pools, below is a list of all the awards presented and a predicted winner for each:
Best Actor – Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Best Actress – Emma Stone, La La Land
Best Adapted Screenplay – Moonlight
Best Animated Feature Film – Zootopia
Best Animated Short Film – Piper
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Best Cinematography – La La Land
Best Costume Design – La La Land
Best Director – Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Best Documentary Feature – O.J: Made in America
Best Documentary Short – Extremis
Best Film Editing – La La Land
Best Foreign Language Film – Toni Erdmann
Best Live Action Short Film – Ennemis Interieurs
Best Makeup – Star Trek Beyond
Best Original Score – La La Land
Best Original Screenplay – Manchester by the Sea
Best Original Song – City of Stars, La La Land
Best Picture – La Land
Best Production Design – La La Land
Best Sound Editing – Hacksaw Ridge
Best Sound Mixing – La La Land
Best Supporting Actor – Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Best Supporting Actress – Viola Davis, Fences
Best Visual Effects – The Jungle Book
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