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Originally Posted by GamblinMan03
Giuliani vs Clinton. I honestly cant see Paul closing on that much ground he is behind.
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I cant believe you would say that. Here is a look at history on early leaders.
A look back at nearly 50 years of early primary polls suggests that Republican front-runners are often a good bet to capture the nomination, but the picture is more mixed for leading Democrats.
In seven open Republican contests since 1960, the early front-runners held on to win the party nod six times.1 By contrast, early Democratic poll leaders won four out of eight open contests between 1960 and 2004. In early 2003, Sen. John Kerry was tied with Sen. Joseph Lieberman, but fell behind Gen. Wesley Clark and Vermont Gov. Howard Dean at different times later in the year before eventually getting the final nod from Democrats.
Unfortunately for Republican aspirants in this cycle, no candidate can benefit from the GOP's traditional early leader tenacity for the simple reason that no single frontrunner has been established. Until recently, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain had been running neck-in-neck in Republican horse race polls. Although recent nationwide polls show Giuliani slightly outpacing McCain among likely GOP primary voters, some election watchers are skeptical about Giuliani's chances, given his relatively liberal views on social issues.