[Stifler's Mom]

ytd ats 71-75 (-21.20 units)
dog ml's 16-31 (-6.56 units)
teasers 0-3 (-9.20 units)
parlays 1-1 (+2.00 units)
total 88-110 (-34.96 units)

Atlanta Falcons +5 (+100)

3 units

I know this goes against my own "system" of taking the dog on the ML at spreads of under 7, but I'm passing on the ML play tonight cause I think this line is inflated. I see a chance of a Saints SU win/non cover here, as I believe the game will be close, and I don't wanna risk being burned by a late Saints drive for the win on the ML play. The payout wouldn't be much different if I do it my usual way (2 units ATS at +5 +100 and 1 unit ML at +180) and Atlanta wins outright (+3.80 units instead of +3.00 units), and the loss is exactly the same (-3.00 units) if they lose/don't cover anyway....but if Atlanta covers, but loses, the profit is only +1 unit instead of +3 units doing it this way.

In other words, I'm having a hard time justifying taking the ML play for 1 unit considering the little bit extra it will make for me as compared to the 2 unit potential loss if ATL covers but loses, instead of just playing that unit on the +5 (+100) spread.