Overall (4-7) -1.8 Units
Top Plays (3-1) +3.8 Units
Regular Plays (1-6) -5.6 Units
Today, was an up and down day in the NFL w/ some close calls and missed opportunities. The Texans game was about as close as it gets to a win. That game goes to OT, and we have a high probability of covering. I have looked at the Monday night game from many angles, and I have what I believe to be the best pick of the season thus far. The line opened at +1 for the Dolphins. There was limited line movement either way early in the week meaning that the "Sharps" were likely not pounding the Jets. Then, as the week progressed and we moved into this morning the line started to jump around in favor of the Jets, moving to -3 at many books. Yet, despite the jump several books notorious for taking "Sharp" money are holding strong at '+1. This combined w/ some statistical advantages makes this a Top Play for me. I have Miami winning the game outright. Miami has converted slightly more than 50% of their 3rd down attempts, as opposed to the Jets who have converted just 35% of their 3rd down attempts. Also, Miami's defense is allowing just 2.94 YPR, which should make it difficult for the Jets to rely on Thomas Jones and Leon Washington to set the pace early and allow Mark Sanchez to settle into a rhythm. My one concern is Miami's inability to defend the pass early in the season, allowing an average of 8.4 YPA. If Sanchez gets hot and stays hot, which I don't predict will happen, there may be reason for concern. GL and enjoy the WINNER!!!
**Top Play** (2 Units)
Dolphins +3
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