Tulsa looks worse than they are. They have a significantly better defense than Houston, but obviously a worse offense. Their offense is 3rd best on a ypg basis in CUSA and the 2nd best defense.
I have faded Houston a few times this year, but have also played a couple of winners...vs. OSU and TT. ConfUSA has some really crappy offenses this season.
In addition to that, the line looks ridiculously low for a team (Houston) that is 7-1 ATS and in the top 25. Houston blasted Tulsa last season 70-30 which I am sure Tulsa remembers...and Houston. Public is pounding Houston at almost a 9 to 1 ratio yet the low line went even lower.
As far as capping I look at the following.
1. Weird lines....like above.
2. Dogs at home.
3. Fade teams off big wins or heartbreaking losses.
4. Fade teams with big games next week vs. mediocre competition this week.
5. Public Dogs....fade big time. Public away faves....look to fade.
6. Early in season play against teams that have been hyped big time....as in Mississippi, Okla State this year. Look to play teams that sucked last year and return most starters.
I play dogs mostly and usually this means I play against the public. The public tends to play favorites and overs. If the public is on an under.....look closely at the over.
Statistically, yards per play I think mean more than anything. If a team avg more ypp rushing and gives up less ypp rushing than the other team, I look to play them. I also think teams with a critical injury going into this week are worth a look. Vegas knows the pub will look at playing the other team and teams tend to play with some extra conviction.
that is just some of it. I try not to make it too difficult or time consuming.
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Go Boilers!
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