Statistically the Dolphins and Panthers are almost identical in rushing offense. The Dolphins are #7 in NFL run D, allowing 97 3.7 ypc. Tha Panthers are #25 allowing 128 and 4.6 ypc. The Panthers have the better pass D allowing 186 while the Fins allow 239 and are ranked #27. However both have allowed 11 tds through the air. Difference in game will be who is more effective on the ground and as always, turnovers. I think the only reason Carolina is favored is because they are at home, and if Ronnie Brown wasn't hurt and the Panthers didn't just beat the Falcons, nobody would want top play them. Those factors are already built into the line, so I think the advantage goes to Miami...
Other leans this week
Patriots TT over- Pats home and off a loss, you can bet they are gonna be looking to pile it on. Don't forget the 16-9 in all actuality blowout loss @NYJ earlier in the season. Like Belichek needs any more motivation. The Jets defense is not what everyone thought it would be, and the Pats offense is playing at the top of their game. Pats off a loss this season put up 26 vs Atlanta and 59 vs Titans. I don't think it's a stretch to see them break 30 vs the Jets in this spot. My only concern is the weather here, haven't even checked it yet. I would also think that (though I never play them) NE in a teaser is just about as good a play as I see on the board.
Bills/Jags over- Bills can't stop the run, and get blown out 2ndh because of it. Jax-pts 4th quarter is probably a winning wager. Fading the Bills in the 4thq would have been a jackpot this season. At the same time the Jags D is not that good and have allowed more pts than the Bills have. Not sure how Buffalo reacts to the Jauron firing, news about changing direction next season etc. The guys who care will probably look to show they deserve a roster spot. At the same time I could see them losing by 10. IMO over is the best option....
Saints/Bucs over- Maybe even Bucs+ pts and tt over. Saints keep turning the ball over, and some day it will bite them in the ass. Someday lol.
__________________
Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...
|