Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars: the oddsmakers do not know what to do about this game, so they opened the lines with a PK on each side and let the market work. The Jaguars are 6-5 this season and currently have one foot in the last wild card that gives access to the playoffs, but with Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the footsteps, I doubt they can keep this lead...
However, the motivation for this game should be enough to start with a win a series of 3 home games. And knowing that they receive after the Texans, Miami and Indianapolis in the next few weeks, imagine the moral boost of facing the Colts with a 7-5 record?
Houston has lost the last game and is a team with low morale, because the losses always cost in emotional terms, but can still mathematically reach the last spot of the playoffs, the problem is going to do 3 road games and two of them quite complicated, against Jaguars and Dolphins. Knowing that they play much better away from home, were my first choice, but after reviewing the other factors, I think it is wiser to stay out, because these Texans in the moment of truth have failed...
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons: Without QB Matt Ryan, the Falcons had a FG advantage in the opening lines, courtesy of the oddsmakers. The Eagles on the road have acted with a bit lower than expected and on the last 4 games only managed to win 2 of them ... The prioblem is that the Falcons are not is good shape either and perhaps this is a good match for an Under, because both teams in the rushing game will have their best players sitting out on the sidelines. However, one never knows how the Falcons passing game will really work on this game, so I'd rather stay out of this game.
Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals: I will not play the Lions with Stafford having that arm injury not fully recovered. Going against Detroit -13 against a team as good on the offense like the Bengals are is always a snack, the problem is that these Bengals only played their best game against the best teams on the league.
Against the Bears, who are in the same division of the Lions, Cincy won big, but on the last game against the Browns, division rivals, they played just the minimum required to win the game and that has been almost the norm when the Bengals face lowly teams. In theory, Lions +13 would be a good pick, but the circumstances of the injury on the arm of Stafford, force me to leave this game aside.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers: it's curious to see Bucs +6 going to Bucs +4, but that is explained because if I'm not wrong, Panthers' QB will be out for this game game and therefore, it is complicated to have a good read on the Panthers. Tampa Bay is a very weak team and perhaps, the best pick for this game is the Under 40. Were not the fact that I do not know very well these two teams and that I've already too many plays for this week and maybe I could take that risk ... The problem is that Tampa Bay can score always a few points per game, ranging between 14 and 21 points, and sometimes games between low scoring teams can open up and we end up with an over... Many unknowns to take risks that I find unnecessary ...
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