This may be shortsighted and "typically public" thinking by me, but I look at the better team getting only a field goal and I can't help but play the Colts.
Even for a prime time game, I can't see the fan energy in Jax being much of a factor so that arguably puts the 12th man/home field advantage a little lower on the factor list.
Colts are hot and have a knack for making that big 4thQ play - enough to cover that FG and worst case scenario, push the number.
MJD is a bit of a worry here - virtually unstoppable which may force Indy to put 8 in the box and open up single coverage for Garrard downfield. That said, I think the Colts offence strikes early to tries to take away the Jags run game and make them throw the ball.
If this becomes a game dominated by the passing game, Indy will roll. Clark and Garcon have been outstanding lately, minimizing double-team opportunities against Wayne on the outside. Addai has also taken advantage of his opportunities in recent games.
Laying the heavier juice (-121 for 3pt spread in my book) hurt a little, but I think Indy moves a little closer to 16-0 tonight.
GL to all and Happy Holidays.
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