Well since I'm likely gonna be snowed in for the next 36 hours, I'll join the discussion.
I've added another angle to my capping this season, and it's helping me out. I used to just see a shady line and automatically go against it, but now I take into account recent ATS record into this, and it helps me weed out a lot of shady lines that aren't shady. Anyways....
I'm late on the colts game. I took the colts and over, but too late for that. Talking about this game gives a good lead into the GB/Pitt game though. I dunno the record (not that you can exactly track it) of teams that are in "must win" situations, but I imagine that it is not good. We'll discuss this further in the Pitt game.
I'll go with my view on the games you pointed out underdog since you asked.
Bills +7 vs. Pats
This is what I eluded to in the beginning of my post. In the past it would automatically be the Bills. I took them in week 1 and hit pretty big. I actually like NE to cover in this spot. Everyone is aware that NE is 1-5 on the road. This line seems a bit high for a team that has lost 3 in a row ATS against a team that has covered 3 of it's last 4, coming off a win at Arrowhead. The thing I need ot factor in is gameday weather. New Englands 59-0 win over Tenn in the snow bowl earlier this year will be on people's minds. I don't think it will be a high scoring game if it snows, but I bet the public will take the over anyways.
Rams +13 vs. Texans
This is a huge line to be giving on the road. Houston was definitely due for a cover losing 3 in a row ats until last week. Game is scary though, it is a large line, St louis got blown out last week, Houston blew Seattle out, and St Louis's team has the swine flu. I'm not touching this game, nor do I have a lean.
Lions + 12.5 vs Arizona[/B]
You would really think that oddsmakers adjusting the lines over the years would have Detroit actually covering for a season. Detroit is 3-9 ATS this year. The fact that Arizona looked so bad last week is why I can't get a feel really for this game either. This game really depends on the QB situation as well. The O/U is set very high on this game, therefore I like the over. If the game goes over, who does this favor?
Panthers +9 vs Minny
This is one of the games I really like on Sunday. Minny coming off an impressive stomping vs Cincy. Carolina still with a backup QB, who is ineffective for the most part. So basically all Carolina has is the run game, which Minnesota is one of the best in the league at stopping. I feel this is a good spot to fade the covering machine that has been the Minnesota Vikings. It's a SNF game with high consensus, and last week the square eagles covered on SNF.
Redskins +3 vs. NYG
Two teams going in opposite directions. Washington has looked great lately, and has covered 5 games in a row, and the Giants are 1-7 ATS in their last 8. This line looks fishy, but it's not. Washington coming off a blowout of Oakland, NY getting abused by Philly in prime time spotlight. First game Washington covered, and it went over. The only thing that throws me is I hate betting against a team that got slaughtered last time they were on Primetime. Last game washington played on MNF the public was alllll over Philly, and washington did as expected, lost and did not cover. Over is 6-1 in Washington's last 7. The Giants last 2 games went over as well. First meeting between these 2 went over. I like Giants and UNDER, but being a local, I know the weather is going to be really bad this weekend, and I don't know if it will carry over to Monday.
Another interesting trend I read on another forum is that if the public loses on a SNF, they win MNF, and vice versa. The system is something like 12-1 so far this year. Since I like Carolina a lot on SNF, the system play would be NYG for Monday.
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