[recovering77]

Onto some of my own leans.

KC -1 Vs. Cleveland.
Love how Cleveland is coming off a huge win vs Pittsburgh. Cleveland has covered 4 in a row ATS, and KC has lost 3 in a row ATS. KC coming off a loss to the lowly Buffalo Bills. One thing I noticed last week. There were 3 -1/+1 lines last week. The away team won and covered all 3 games, KC being one of the teams that lost. This is a dumb logic, but my law of averages says KC is due to cover this week. Years ago I saw a stat that KC was something like 13-1 at Arrowhead in December. That hasn't followed through the past 2 years, but I still think it's a tough place to play. I'm really shocked when I see public percentages on KC though. It makes too much sense to take Cleveland.

Tenn -4 vs Miami
So Miami is 5-0 in December the past 2 years huh? Miami has everything to play for huh? This will be a definite play if Kerry Collins starts. I love fading undefeated trends. This trend was introduced last week, and it followed through. I like how Tenn has been playing, but last week they almost looked too good. Kerry Collins is 0-6 as a starter, and I would love to have him at -4 going against the hot Dolphins.

Pitt -1 Vs. Green Bay
This is one of those "must win" game situations. After many of the public took a beating on Thursday playing Jax in that spot, I think they go the opposite route and take GB this time. Green Bay is HOT, Pitt is not, losing SU to Cleveland, and having so much criticism on them. I believe it was Hines Ward that said to forget about the playoffs, even though they are technically still in it. So why is a team that states themselves that they are out of the playoff race favored against one of the hotter teams in the league? GB covered as a HEAVY public favorite last week, and I think they lose this time. I also like the UNDER in this game. Every Pittsburgh game that they have played without Polamalu has gone over this year, until last week. I think the Pitt defense gives Rodgers fits and Pitt wins a low scoring game.

Cincy +7 vs. San Diego
This was a stronger play for me til the passing of Chris Henry. The public loves to bet a team that has inspiration, especially after Cincy covered the week that coaches wife died. Also, most of the public is aware that Cincy covered every game this year as a dog until last week. This is mainly just going to be a fade of San Diego, who have won 8 games in a row and covered as a heavy public dog last week. Cincy also getting blown out last week, and the fade of the 15-0 December record is making me like this. I like the key 7 number as a teaser buster.

Leans:
Chicago- This team has not covered in FOREVER. I really think they are due against a team that laid a whoooping on the Detroit Lions last week.

Philly - Shocked to see Philly giving so many points to a team that looked absolutely great on MNF. Philly is a big public team though, so I probably will lay off as this line may be inflated because of that and how they played on primetime SNF.

Oakland - Backup QB theory. That's pretty much it. Denver losing last week doesn't help though.

I'm not playing Saturday, but I lean Dallas. New Orleans going for the undefeated Season, and Dallas known for their Decembers. I like the key number 7 here for a potential teaser buster.