Stiff - I would never lay anything on any poker event. It's a complete stab in the dark as you said, and you are essentially just betting on some pro's luck to best a field of what will probably be 8-10K. It's hard enough for any established pro to win the event in the first place, nevermind picking the one out who does it.
I would immediately toss out Cunningham and Hachem for a few reasons. While I think Cunningham is one of the best 5-10 players in the world, the liklihood of him making back to back Final Tables in fields of 8k+ is simply next to nothing. As for Hachem, he played fantastic in last year's entire WSOP, and has even played well throughout the year (Aussie Millions, WPT stuff, etc) but I can't expect the guy to navigate all these people again.
Like I said, I would never even bother playing someone to win the tourney (maybe maybe maybe the props where you pick 1 guy out of a grouping of 5 or the heads up plays), but even those are just dumb luck if you happen to pick the right guy or not.
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