Hi Golf-Guy
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Originally Posted by Golf-Guy
1. KENNY PERRY! I have been backing him the past 3 tournaments he has been in because I remember how dominant he could be when he is on (colonial and bay hill 2 years ago). I think he is not worth backing ever again. He's not the same player and can't finish anything. At the buick in the final round he was driving it 330 and in the fairway each drive but was either missing greens from 100 yards or putting it to 40 feet. this past week he couldnt hit a fairway for his life! Do you still have faith in this guy?
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Yes, I still have faith in him to win again, even though he will be 47 in two weeks' time (it didn't stop Fred Funk winning the Players Championship at 48). The fact that he has finished in the top-15 in each of his last five events shows the big turnaround in his game back to the level of 2005, but in terms of winning, there is a distinctive feature about Perry: he does not win from off the pace.
Of his nine PGA Tour wins, in only one of them (1994 New England Classic) did he not hold the lead at the start of the final round (or, looking at it the other way around, in five of the last six times that he has held at least a share of the lead heading into the final round, he has managed to convert that into a win). Furthermore, in five of his last six wins, he has held the lead in the tournament in the 2nd round and the 3rd rounds, as well as after the 4th round.
So, Perry is a very good example of a player who is (i) an extremely good front runner, but (ii) a player who does not control the ball well when 'pressing' in the final round. You comment on this at the Buick Open, and it has been evident in the last two weeks as well, but by contrast I would argue that he
is still the same player as he was ... a player who does win from off the pace.
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Originally Posted by Golf-Guy
2. I have had success in the past backing players that I believe are up and coming, geoff ogilvy and zach johnson for instance. This season I like several players to win soon. Michael Sim, Mathhew Goggin and Anthony Kim. On the euro tour I like Martin Kaymer and Andres Romero (pre british meltdown). What is your criteria for selecting players during their early years and little to no course experience?
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I've also backed Anthony Kim and Martin Kaymer on a number of occasions this season and I'm convinced that those two, in particular, will have won a Tour title by the end of next season.
What young players lack on these Tours is experience, obviously, and that filters through their tournament play in two main ways: (i) they don't have course experience if the Tour event is being played at a regular stop; and (ii) they don't have the patience of the more seasoned pros.
The combination of these two effects is poor course management (in comparison to their seasoned peers) and higher-than-normal volatility in scoring (which is compounded by the poor course management). So these are players who will have lots of high finishes, but also lots of missed cuts. As a result, I am much less concerned about poor results from a young player than a more seasoned pro (and this should be evident from my selection of Camilo Villegas this week).
The other way that I take account of these effects is to (i) not back these types of players if they are course rookies when the rest of the field has plenty of course experience (again, this makes Villegas a valid selection with the Canadian Open being played on the new course at Angus Glen); (ii) not back them in particularly strong fields (Romero may appear to counter this rule, but he did finish very highly in the British Open a year ago); and (iii) only back them on the more open courses where strategy (and thus course management) is less important (points (ii) and (iii) are also relevant to my selection of Villegas yesterday). The final point can simply be an 'experience' factor, but if there is one thing in common amoung the young, up-and-coming players, it is that they hit the ball a very long way ... and not always straight! Ball control and course management is something that they will learn with experience as Tiger did and then I will start to back them less selectively.