UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch

[akatdrake]

UFC 127 Penn vs. Fitch - February 27th 2011
Acer Arena, Sydney, Australia

Main Bouts:
Jon Fitch (23-3) -210 vs. B.J. Penn (16-7-1) +165
Michael Bisping (20-3) -320 vs. Jorge Rivera (19-7) +240
George Sotiropoulos (14-2) -400 vs. Dennis Siver (17-7) +300
Chris Lytle (30-17-5) -280 vs. Brian Ebersole (46-14-1) +210
Chris Camozzi (14-3) +165 vs. Kyle Noke (18-4-1) -210

Preliminary Bouts:
Ross Pearson (11-4) -160 vs. Spencer Fisher (24-6) +130
James Te Huna (12-4) +240 vs. Alexander Gustafsson (10-1) -320
Riki Fukuda (17-4) -130 vs. Nick Ring (10-0) +100
Mark Hunt (5-7) +200 vs. Chris Tuchscherer (21-3) -260
Maciej Jewtuszko (8-0) -155 vs. Curt Warburton (6-2) +125
Tom Blackledge (10-6) -200 vs. Anthony Perosh (10-6) +160
Tiequan Zhang (12-1) -300 vs. Jason Reinhardt (20-1) +220

Completely hosed the Strikeforce card from last night (thought it was tonight). At first glance, I like Tuchscherer, Lytle, Sitiropulous, and Fitch. I do not like the main card, but as for the disappointment with the last UFC card, you never know.

[akatdrake]

Note: edited lines above. Just in case anyone noticed the odds on Camozzi/Noke switched - I had Camozzi the favorite in my original post and he was the dog. Oops.

My gut instincts is that Penn is over the hill. Fitch has been surpassed for title shots because he's a boring fighter. Will grind on you and get a decision win. If Penn allows the fight to go to the ground, he doesn't stand much of a shot. Also, Penn limping at the weigh-ins... injury? Getting inside Fitch's head? I'm laying off. There's a great deal of value in Penn as the dog here, because he's a former title-holder, but I believe this line should be more in Fitch's favor because of Penn's name. Fitch has been boring, but impressive lately, and Penn has looked like crap in his last few fights. This will be a boring headliner. Lean Fitch -210

Rivera is rewarded with this fight as being a loyal UFC-er. Most people don't believe he stands much of a chance, save a fighter's. Bisping is the all-around better fighter and the likelihood of this event is Bisping out-points Rivera into a decision win. However, the one hole in Bisping's game is the right straight/jab. The one thing Rivera has going for him is a hell of a right straight/jab. Puncher's chance? Yes. Likelihood? No. Lean Bisping -320

The same thing can be said for Dennis Siver here. He's a great kick-boxer, but is basically getting paid to lay down for George Sotiropoulos. Once Sotiropoulos get's it to the ground, kiss Siver goodbye. Only hope for Siver is hitting Sotiropoulos with a vicious knee or kick early to end it. Lean Sotiropoulos -400

Don't really like the lines here in this fight. As you guys know, I like to lean dogs and I really don't see too many barking today. Passing the card.

[V3r1f13d]

I think Penn is too small for Fitch.
The only live dog I see is Rivera. Other than that all the faves should take it.

GL.
I'll have it on on my second TV. I switch the audio as soon as boxing is over.

[akatdrake]

Thanks Verified...

Made a small, three-unit parlay on

Sotiropoulous/Bisping ~ to win around 2 units