Alvarez vs Hatton

[V3r1f13d]

Well, Alvarez is -1200. No thank you.
Hatton at +750 has to box his ass off against a pro mexican croud . No thank you.

I am going to go out on a limb, give Hatton the benefit of the doubt and say he can go over 9.5 rounds and run with the +160. He's not dumb and he doesn't fight like Ricky. The guy isn't going to go for the KO. He has 16KO's out of 47 fights. He has only been KO'd once, and that was 9 years ago!!!

Hatton to box, survive, dance, and avoid Saul's power at all costs. He knows his only chance is to win a CLEAR decision. He might duke it out a little. I don't think Saul can chase people very well either. He is a stationed fighter.

So let's play the dog and run with the Over 9.5 +160
The under is -190
I'm not going to place on a 2 to 1 with absolutely no backing other than "Derrrrr, Alvarez is up and coming and is strong, he KO's people, derrrrr".

No, not my style.

Waiting to see how the line plays out. Will post and play the day of the fight.

Still waiting to hear from experts as well, but this is my take on it.

[V3r1f13d]

Alvarez came in overweight.
Ricky told his brother to call the fight off if Canelo can't make weight.
He has 2 hours to cut it (2 hours ago, weigh in should be any time now) OR Hatton can either call the fight off OR get 30% of Canelo's purse.

My Over line shot up to +180 as soon as that news dropped.

Awaiting outcome.

On a side note, where the hell are all the fight fans on this board at?
What the hell are you guys watching? The NBA? Wtf...

[V3r1f13d]

Came back 1.4lbs over. Fight is still on.
Hatton to take 30% of Canelo's purse.

My play still stays the same.
Waiting for it to move more in my favor.

Placing a unit on it tomorrow afternoon, at whatever it's at.

[akatdrake]

Ver, I was thinking the same things about the fight fans around here!

Question - Though I appreciate a great match, I don't know too much about the sport in general. You said he could cancel the fight, take a percentage of the purse, etc, are these standard rules or are they somehow entwined into the fight contract??

Any thoughts on this upcoming Syllakh/Despaigne fight? Odds are pretty close. I'll be switching from channel to channel...

[V3r1f13d]

My book doesn't have anything on the fight tonight. I won't be able to watch it either, but I have no clue what the lines are. I haven't seen either of those guys fight though.

Each fight has its own contractual weight limit and penalties, but almost everyone gives the opponent the right to opt out of the fight if the other person comes in over weight. It's dangerous. Not only did that guy come in heavy, but the other fighter more often than not came in drained. So it's a really bad situation.

For example, when Corrales could have opted to not fight Castillo when he came in overweight in their rematch. He wanted to please the crowd, came in weight drained and got KTFO. Then there was a rubber rematch and Castillo came in heavy AGAIN, fight was called off and everyone went home. Major fight was replaced by interviews of people bashing Castillo.

Or you can opt to pay a fine per lb you are over.
Plus the sanctioning body fines you ON TOP of that.

It's really strict and for good reasons in my opinion.

[V3r1f13d]

The first site I got the info from was incorrect. Canelo was hit with 20% total.
That's 10 to Hatton (35K) and 10 to the commission.

[V3r1f13d]

Not going to move around too much more.
Not a high profile fight and the vs odds are blown out of proportion so I placed.

Over 9.5 (+180)
1 to win 1.8

[akatdrake]

Good luck tonight.

Thanks for the explanation. I understand about the right to refuse to fight - I think it's good for the game as well. Have you seen the movie The Fighter? I just watched it the other day and (if you haven't seen it) the main character decides to please others by taking a late-add to fight rather than postponing it, he ends up getting KTFO too.

Good luck on your play.

[V3r1f13d]

Thanks.
Boxing dogs hit less often than dogs in other sports, but I have to play them sometimes...

Nope, haven't seen the movie but I've seen ads for it. I probably watch about one film a month and it's usually weird foreign indy films.

[V3r1f13d]

Over clears.
It actually cleared a lot easier than I thought it would.
I know Alvarez couldn't KO people who box, but I didn't even have any scares.

Canelo doesn't have "bad" defense necessarily. He's just not quick. He is a very grounded and strong fighter. That will always open you up to shots. My opinion, he is not even close being ready to fight the top of the division. They are moving him up and a good pace.

Anyways, hell yeah I won my play.

[akatdrake]

Great work!

I didn't get to see the fight but saw a fight recap. Apparently Hatton had a rough first couple of rounds and a nasty cut? Seems the guy can sure take a beating!!

[V3r1f13d]

No, it really wasn't that bad. Nothing in the first couple rounds set the rest of the night apart. He had a rough night all together, didn't win a single round. There weren't any times that he was really staggered though. He stayed outside, boxed, but got hit with power shots on the edge. He would get bombed on when against the ropes but would slip out quickly.

For a +180, this one cleared like a -110