UFC 129: GSP vs Shields

[akatdrake]

Rogers Centre
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
April 30, 2011

UFC Welterweight Championship
* Georges St. Pierre (21-2) -400 vs. Jake Shields (26-4-1) +300

Over 3.5 -155
Under 3.5 +125

GSP boasts an eight fight win streak, with his last loss by Matt Serra via strikes back in April of 2007. GSP is the number one PFP fighter in the game right now, he is almost 30 years old, and looks to have a few more solid years left in him. When GSP came to the UFC he was very crisp with his punches, and his athleticism is off the charts. He is one of the most gifted, technical fighters out there and boasts no weaknesses in his game - except that now, he's fighting someone he's never seen before, and will be shouldering the load of 55k screaming Canucks.

Jake Shields has an incredible 15-fight win streak, with his last loss via unanimous decision back in 2004! That being said, his competition level is much lower than the opponents GSP has fought, with a couple of exceptions... he beat Yushin Okami and Carlos Condit in one night, and his other wins have come over the likes of Paul Daley, Robbie Lawler, Dan Henderson, and Martin Kampmann. Since coming over from Strikeforce and EliteXC, Shields UFC-debut win over Kampmann was less than impressive, earning a split-decision that could have easily went the other way. Shields is however an excellent wrestler, grappler and a master of Gracie Jiu-Jitzu.

The last couple of fights that GSP has been in have been rather boring. Versus Josh Koscheck, GSP broke Kos's right orbital bone in possibly the first jab of the night, onto a five-round, total domination, putting on a boxing clinic and outpointing Kos for the easy win. The previous two fights versus Dan Hardy and Thiago Alves consisted of five-rounds of GSP's lay and pray... he is so athletic and technical that you really don't stand a chance on the ground. HOWEVER, if there is one person who can submit you on his back - it's Jake Shields. GSP is not a ego-maniac - you won't see him be like a Nick Diaz and know Paul Daley is a great boxer, and thus want to stand wit him... he has no problem abandoning one strategy and going to the next because he excels at everything. People forget GSP was heralded for his hands when he came into the league, and has basically used his superior athleticism to beat you at what you're the best at.

I see GSP winning by a decision, so the o3.5 -150 has some value. Shields has survived an H-Bomb from Dan Henderson, so we know he's got a chin - and defensively, he's a great fighter. But offensively, can he do enough to take the title away? If there is one bet that has a boxer's chance, it's Jake Shields by submission - which you can find around +700. If I'm taking Shields, I'm taking him inside the distance.

UFC Featherweight Championship
Jose Aldo (18-1) -500 vs. * Mark Hominick (20-8) +350

Over 2.5 +115
Under 2.5 -145

Randy Couture (19-10) +250 vs. Lyoto Machida (16-2) -350

Over 2.5 -115
Under 2.5 -115

Benson Henderson (12-2) -140 vs. * Mark Bocek (9-3) +110

Over 2.5 -155
Under 2.5 +125

Vladimir Matyushenko (25-5) +100 vs. Jason Brilz (18-3-1) -130

Lots of money coming in on Brilz

Over 2.5 -210
Under 2.5 +165

* Rory MacDonald (10-1) -125 vs. Nate Diaz (13-6) -105

Over 2.5 -155
Under 2.5 +125

Kyle Watson +160 vs. * John Makdessi -200
* Sean Pierson +160 (11-4) vs. Jake Ellenberger (23-5) -200
Pablo Garza +140 vs. * Yves Jabouin -170
* Ivan Menjivar -190 vs. Charlie Valencia +155
* Claude Patrick -150 vs. Daniel Roberts +120
* Jason MacDonald -115 vs. Ryan Jensen -115

This will be the largest crowd ever for an MMA fight, as 55,000 screaming crazy Canucks will pack the Rogers Centre to watch their golden boy, GSP, and nine other Canadian-born fighters duel in The Octagon. (Canadian-born fighters have asterisk-* next to their name)

Other thoughts: last time we saw Matyushenko, we saw an older, smaller fighter get beat up by Jon Jones with those vicious elbows in the first round. This guy is a veteran fighter who's got a great chin and a good wrestler, and Brilz is also no slouch. I'm looking for a great fight here.

We'll see how once 10-0 Rory MacDonald responds after getting KTFO vs Carlos Condit back at UFC 115, and Nate Diaz isn't as talented as his brother, but has some notable fights in the Welterweight divison.

I believe Sean Pierson is a live dog, because of Ellenberger's taking this fight on such short notice, replacing Brian Foster. Pierson has heavy hands and has won six in a row.

[DukiesBaby]

4/30/2011 8:25 PM UFC Fighting 1501 Rory MacDonald/Nate Diaz* Under 2½ +157



5 dimes has this line... this is a 3 round fight, and they giving +157 that this goes to a decision...


I'm gonna bite on the under for both these fighters have finished fights, and been finished before, i dont see a drag out fight between these 2.. and +157 to finish fight by 2min 30 sec mark in round 3? in a 3 round fight? count me in boss.



4/30/2011 9:30 PM UFC Fighting 1201 Randy Couture* +270 vs Lyoto Machida


Randy is old and needs to retire, but facing a fighter who is a counter attacker, might benefit the old man ran, randy cuts weight to make 205 but walks around alot bigger than lyoto does, and if this fight ends up on the ground the size/wrestling of randy will be a huge advantage, lyoto wants this match to stay standing i think, and randy's fight end up to the ground always at some point.. plus i thought this line would be Lyoto -400 or higher.. so im on a hunch vegas is backing randy this fight, as will i.



4/30/2011 11:00 PM Props Fighting 1009 St-Pierre wins inside distance* +130


This is the best line for GSP backers, u get +130 and u get GSP to win, but just cant go to a decision, i think u give GSP 5 rounds to finish a fight, he most of the time is gonna do it, GSP not ever getting to watch shields fight benefits GSP in that he will train as if he might be an underdog, a focused GSP & a HEALTHY one is definitely gonna get my money, My prediction for this fight is a Late round 2 or Early round 3 GSP ground and pound referee stopage...




Not much opinion on any of the other fights... maybe the Brilz vs Matuyshenko fight goes the distance, but @ -295 doesnt seem like good odds

[akatdrake]

I'll definitely be on Randy Couture this fight. His and Lyoto's style are very different - Randy likes to pound you up against the cage with dirty boxing and Greco Roman wrestling, and Lyoto loves to use his quickness and heavy hands to get in, throw, and get out. He stands very unorthodox with his chest toward the opponent, rather than his front foot. I am very surprised how far this line is, though. Lyoto would be a fun fighter to watch up against Jon Jones, but he first has to get through a fighter who has said this, regardless of the result, is the last fight he will take. He wants to focus on acting more - and does not want a title shot against Bones.

That being said, you can bet your ass he wants to go out on top. I think he trains hard for Lyoto, as he always does, but he will have to push the pace and that will definitely leave him open. We know Randy has a chin, and definitely has the knockout power, and has said recently he's still working on his striking. I'll probably wait until fight-night to make the pick, however.

About GSP, I just don't see him finishing inside the distance, and if he does - it's his striking, and pounding on Shields similar to he did against Koscheck. Shields has a chin, so KTFO seems out, and Shields has excellent sub-defense, so that seems unlikely as well. I see it five rounds again. I hope I'm wrong, as most MMA fight fans don't like the technical aspect of his game, but if you understand how athletic he is and how difficult the ground game is, and how he makes it look so easy - it's sure fun to watch.

[DukiesBaby]

i just think shields is being hyped like belfort was, and i wasnt buying it vs silva, and this feels like the same thing, The UFC has to hype GSP's opponents as much as they do silva because both fighters are simply the best, i would love to hear matt hughes take on who wins this fight, cause last time he predicted a GSP fight was vs matt serra and he said "GSP is gonna kick his f***ing ass" i think the same here, we are getting an over hyped fighter from another league.. here is one thing you look at GSP u say that guy is the best, why because he has beaten everyone he has faced, top notch guys... james shields, he beat dan henderson congrats thats a good fighter, but robbie lawler ? get the f outta here with that bum... GSP beats legends and pretty convincingly, As for his shields chin, ya some people have those iron jaws, but even those fighters have a button, but i also recall gsp has fought some of the best sumbission artist out there and he was supposed to knock them out yet he suprised everyone by submitting the unsubmittable.. it should be an entertaining fight i hope it goes a few rounds, but i still think we are in for another Over hyped challenger....


btw akatdrake do you watch the ultimate fighter show on spike wednesday nights?

[akatdrake]

Dukies, I do... Just haven't watched the most recent one (last night)... will have to bring it up later after work.

[akatdrake]

Damn Dude - just watched the last couple episodes and wow. A compound fracture in your freaking PINKY finger??? Ish. Talk about a bittersweet win!

[akatdrake]

Straight Bets:

Ryan Jensen -115 - going to fade Jason McDonald off a long layover + injury + weak minor league fights. Don't like Jensen's cardio, but will take this value here.

Mark Bocek +110 - Like the hometown, underrated fighter against the guy who just missed weight. Like to see the line close to Bocek tomorrow.

Randy Couture/Lyoto Machida o2.5 -115 - Machida looks big compared to Couture. I don't think Couture wins, but I think he holds out for a decision. Let's see him put one last hurrah out for the fans, regardless of win/loss. Both can take a punch.

GSP/Shields goes to decision +100 - sticking with my analyzation on the fight. Though I see a slight advantage to GSP's striking, I think the most logical is a decision.

Leaning Daniel Roberts, but Claude on a 12-fight win streak; leaning Pierson because Ellenberger takes fight on short-notice, but can we see another Chris Leben-like fight? I think so.

[DukiesBaby]

Originally Posted by akatdrake

Damn Dude - just watched the last couple episodes and wow. A compound fracture in your freaking PINKY finger??? Ish. Talk about a bittersweet win!

Brock lesnars team is full of a bunch of talkers, and wanna be's there some serious ass whoopings coming for a few of them cocky guys, i think the black wrestler that fought the first fight is a bad dude man, he might just run away with this, so strong compared to others...


lesnar and the "chicken ****"

what a way to motivate ur team

[akatdrake]

Recap:

Main event was what I expected - GSP not taking to the ground, stuffing the (few) takedown attempts by Shields, and out-pointing him ala Koscheck.

Aldo/Hominick - fight of the night honor, huge gross-looking hematoma on Hominick's forehead about the size of a baseball, also got his right cheek swollen, and left eye mangled. Hominick kept coming with his precise jabs and straights. Aldo looked very beatable, was inconsistent with his leg kicks, and looked gassed after the second round. Hominick poured it on late, but didn't do enough.

Machida/Couture - crane-style front kick to the face surprised most everyone, including Couture. Lost a tooth in the process, sending Couture into retirement as Machida hails the legend in post-fight talk with Rogan.

Henderson/Bocek - Henderson really imposed his will against the home-town fighter, Bocek was ineffective for most of the fight and Henderson was able to do a lot. He will probably get a title shot sometime, but in the 155 log-jam at the top, he's got to wait a while. Edgar/Maynard will defend against Guida/Pettis, then you've got Henderson and Jim Miller to talk about...

Matyushenko/Brilz - lots of money before the fight on Brilz, and boy did the Janitor take that money and run. One-two straight combo downs Brilz in the first half-minute.

My pick analysis: I wasn't strong on Brilz or Jensen yet bet them both and lost both. Not very good discipline for me. Surprised by the Machida crane-kick - as was everyone else - but saw this going to a decision. Very spot-on with GSP's fight, and should have upped this bet. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.