UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin

[akatdrake]

June 11, 2011
Rogers Arena
British Columbia, Canada

Junior Dos Santos -190 vs Shane Carwin +155
Kenny Florian -300 vs. Diego Nunes +220
Jon Olav Einemo +200 vs. Dave Herman -260
Demian Maia +100 vs. Mark Munoz -130
Dustin Poirier -350 vs. Jason Young +250
Chris Weidman -280 vs. Jesse Bongfeldt +210
Nick Ring vs. James Head
Donald Cerrone -400 vs. Vagner Rocha +300
Yves Edwards -105 vs. Sam Stout -125
Darren Elkins vs. Michihiro Omigawa
Krzysztof Soszynski -220 vs. Igor Pokrajac +175
Aaron Rosa -190 vs. Joey Beltran +155

Staying away from the main event here because I don't expect this to go to a decision at all. If you can find either fighter by KO, take it, or an ITD bet. I like Dos Santos because the guy's cardio is off the charts, and Carwin's is not. Carwin also takes this fight on short notice due to Brock's surgery.

Kenny Florian drops down to featherweight and is a -300 favorite? Really? Diego is 18-1 and I'll definitely be on him. I expect Ken-Flo to get a little name recognition and the line inflate toward him. I'll keep a close eye on it though.

I'll also be on Jan Olav Einemo at that price. He comes over in his UFC debut with some really heavy hands, someone who will have some recognition - I expect him not to disappoint vs Pee Wee Herman.

Donald Cerrone is notorious to start slow, so Rocha holds a decent price there as well.

Really a great card coming up in a couple of weeks!

[DukiesBaby]

Junior Dos Santos -190 ????

this **** should be -350 or higher....


I'm all over this like Homer Simpson on Beer & Doughnuts!



Kenny Florian -300 vs. Diego Nunes +220

I agree with you on this a little bit, but fighters who drop weight classes to fight only drop for the weighin, when they are actually fighting they are back usually around they weight they walk in, which for florian is a bit heavier than nunes, which is an advantage, but i dont like florian either, its not like someone of randy couture skills droping to 205 from heavy weight.. be an interesting fight, but i probably will stay away cause most people who drop down in weight class usually win, but this might be the case in which your right about 18-1 nunes..


Chris Weidman -280

This guy is a bad mofo.. i think he handles this fight, and dominates from begining to end...



Mark Munoz -130

I going Munoz here, Anderson Silva & Maia only went to a decision cause silva didnt take the fight seriously, didnt want the fight, didnt care, I think this is the fight that got under dana white's skin, and a 5 round decision with silva looks good on paper, it actually was nothing to even look at, Munoz loves to finish fights, He should make easy work of Maia and i think by way of knock out in 1st round or early 2nd... i have feeling line is skewed because of that silva decision...


Interested in watching 2 fights but probably wont wager on them


Beltran vs Rosa Beltran "the Mexicutioner" Guy looks like he is right outta the Cartel haha 240LB MEXICAN? damn... Rosa up and coming South paw, pretty well rounded fighter accoriding to some you tube videos, has heavy hands too like to brawl... this should stay standing unless rosa decideds to take a new game plan and take the big mexi down... which he doesnt like to do is be on the ground... Im not sure but i think it was Matt Mittrione or how ever he spells his name, who took the big mexi to the ground wrestled him and won in a unanimous dominating decision...


Poirier vs Young 2 145lb heavy hand fighters, Young has 3 losses all by submissions, well good news for young, Poirier wants to do the same thing he does stand and pound your face in.. could be fun to watch, small compact fast fighters.. GO USA



I think we are in store for a decent card.. so many different weight classed being tossed in this one

[akatdrake]

I agree about the Maia/Silva decision here, but Maia has some good wins on his record... Kendall Grove, Dan Miller, Chael Sonnen, Nate Quarry, Jason MacDonald, Ed Herman... Munoz also coming off two straight wins over CB Dollaway and Aaron Simpson. I like this matchup, but it's pretty much a toss-up for me.

Dana really wants KenFlo to win because he's a better matchup for Jose Aldo, I think... gives his challenger some name recognition and they can promote a huge fight. I really like Nunes as I cashed on him a few fights ago as a heavy underdog, but KenFlo as that big of a favorite? I'm not really sure - looking more at the fight.

I agree with you on JDS

[akatdrake]

Since lines are turning, I figure I should post what lines I got last week:

Diego Nunes +220

Jon Olav Einemo +200

Nunes line pretty much the same but the Einemo line has moved down to +165 right now, so I'm liking the spot I'm in.

Main event getting closer by a few cents too. More analysis coming before Saturday. :)

[akatdrake]

Looking more at the card, I think those two bets are going to do it for the card. I might get a spur-of-the-moment one out there, but it wont be posted.

Good main event. Should be good to watch!!!

[akatdrake]

Some good fights already on the undercard on facebook. That Beltran/Rosa fight was really fun to watch and in the end it looked like Beltran's conditioning was much better and was able to finish Rosa in the third. Omigawa got freaking robbed, like highway robbery big time - unanimous decision the other way? Better striker, landed more shots, ish.

[akatdrake]

Adding a shot in the dark:

Einemo by KO, TKO, DQ +600

[akatdrake]

Junior Dos Santos -190 vs Shane Carwin +155
- Everyone and their mother was on this fight in the distance, and even though I'd like to say I should have/could have/would have gone the other way, there was no way I was seeing this happen. Herb Dean almost stops this late in the first round due to strikes, as JDS was all over Carwin, but the fight ends up going the distance.

I was very surprised to see Carwin's inability to get off many power shots. JDS was out boxing Carwin, setting up some power shots with the left jab. Carwin went in for the takedown a few times, was successful a couple of times, but couldn't hold JDS on the ground for very long. Carwin looked gassed by the end of the first, and I'm sure everyone will be on him because of that, but I thought it was his heart that had him last until the third-round whistle. JDS gets the title shot against Cain - and that might be one of the very best heavyweight matchups of all-time. Both can strike, both have excellent cardio, but the one question will be if Cain can/wants to take JDS down and, can he keep him there?

Kenny Florian -300 vs. Diego Nunes +220
- I was all over Nunes here, as he has a very bright future, but he gassed midway through the second and Florian, being the great veteran he is, kept pressuring it. Nunes flailed around in the third but only landed a couple of nice shots. I thought the judges were a bit off with the unanimous decisions, and one 30-27 - thought it would be much closer.

Jon Olav Einemo +200 vs. Dave Herman -260
- By fight-time, Einemo was bet all the way down to +120! I had a bet on him to win, and by KO, TKO, DQ and very nearly hit the shot in the dark late in the second. I actually fell asleep for a bit (weekend overnights at work) so I missed this fight, but hearing the replays, I guess it was a helluva fight as Herman gets the better of Einemo in the second.

Demian Maia +100 vs. Mark Munoz -130
- Eventhough Munoz wins, Maia will be a force to reckon with here, he was surprisingly able to withstand some punches, and dish a lot more out. Munoz said he was surprised at Maia's offensive abilities, and I'd have to agree with him.

Dustin Poirier -350 vs. Jason Young +250
- I tell you what, this Jason Young guy is going to be good! Poirier wasn't as impressive as his win over the then-heralded Josh Grispi, but still made Young hurt with some vicious strikes that had Young dazed more than once. I was impressed more by Young in the loss than Poirier in the win, but both have bright futures.

Chris Weidman -280 vs. Jesse Bongfeldt +210
- Only saw bits and pieces of this fight, but Bongfeldt had a couple of chances to overcome Weidman, but was unable to do so in front of his country's crowd.

Nick Ring vs. James Head
- Both of these guys are similar fighters, and it was Ring who was able to outlast and pressure Head to the rear-naked in the third. Head tapped quickly, but it wasn't surprising due to the constant pressure by Ring. He won this fight from top to bottom.

Donald Cerrone -400 vs. Vagner Rocha +300
- Missed this fight too.

Yves Edwards -105 vs. Sam Stout -125
- I'd have to assume Stout won KO of the night here because he KTFO'd Edwards, who was down for a long time afterward - into the interview with Rogan. Stout was bet all the way up to -170 at some places, but Edwards continues hit up-and-down MMA career. Stout is still young, at 27, and you think if he didn't rely so much on his hands, he might be a title-contender in the future.

Darren Elkins vs. Michihiro Omigawa
- I thought this was highway robbery. Omigawa was able to go in-and-out, side-to-side, force the jab on Elkins all night long. Though Omigawa's striking isn't the best part of his game, he was able to cut up Elkins face the entire fight. I had this 3-0, MAYBE 2-1 Omigawa, and even when Buffer was calling out the decision, you could see Elkins face moan in defeat. When he was thus awarded the UNANIMOUS decision (WTF?), he shrugged his shoulders, the crowd boo'ed, and Omigawa was left stunned.

Krzysztof Soszynski -220 vs. Igor Pokrajac +175
- I didn't even update this on the initial post, but Sos ended up fighting Mike Mazzadaro (sp?), and was able to dominate him from start to finish. Mike came into this fight on three days notice, and had to move up in weight class and only weighed-in at 201. Sos was gracious for him to take the fight, but disappointed that he couldnt finish the wrestler.

Aaron Rosa -190 vs. Joey Beltran +155
- Boy, this was a fun fight to watch! I don't know why Rosa was favored, because he was clearly the less-talented fighter, but he's a veteran. Beltran was able to land more, and the two had a couple of memorable exchanges. Not the most crisp, and more of a drunken bar brawl, but Beltran was able to outlast Rosa and eventually TKO'd him.

0-3, -3 units but very very close to a positive day. Glad I wasn't on Omigawa, or I'd be furious.