UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber II

[akatdrake]

July 2nd
Las Vegas, NV

UFC Bantamweight Championship
Dominick Cruz (17-1, 0-0 UFC) vs. Urijah Faber (25-4, 1-0 UFC)

Wanderlei Silva (33-10-1, 1 NC, 3-5 UFC) vs. Chris Leben (25-7, 11-6 UFC)

Tito Ortiz (15-8-1, 14-8-1 UFC) vs. Ryan Bader (12-1, 5-1 UFC)

Carlos Condit (26-5, 3-1 UFC) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (14-0-1, 1 NC, 5-0, 1 NC UFC)

Matt Wiman (13-5, 7-3 UFC) vs. Dennis Siver (18-7, 7-4 UFC)

Melvin Guillard vs. Shane Roller
Rafael dos Anjos vs. George Sotiropoulos
Brian Bowles vs. Takeya Mizugaki
Aaron Simpson vs. Brad Tavares
Anthony Njokuani vs. Andre Winner
Jeff Hougland vs. Donny Walker

Already have a bet in on Leben - as the last couple of fights for the Axe Murderer have showed he's lost a few steps. Still has some knock-out power, but Leben's chin is strong and walks like a zombie through them. Tough as nails. Obviously Bader and I like the fight between Condit and the Zombie. That has the makings for a brawl as well. Siver/Wiman will be a good kickboxing match, and I'm excited to see if Guillard keeps his game up to get further in the 155 title picture.

Looks like a pretty decent card there.

[DukiesBaby]

To be completely honest i like every single underdog on this card...


Tito +400 i might be a sucker but i believe tito when he says he is in best shape of his life EVER and i really dont think bader is as good as i thought he was before....

Uriah +105 is just gonna flat kick ass, this has been his ultimate goal in his career 1 day be a ufc champ, i heard him say it back when he started, that one day he wanted to be a ufc champ... well when your dream is only 1 victory away i expect him to really bring his best fight ever to the table... im all over him in this fight


Leben +150 This fight can go either way and probably will end by ko / tko , in a 50/50 fight like this i think youth and +150 will sway me to the leben side



Condit +100 this too me is a no brainer, i think condit will win this via unanimous decision, cant really see it ending any other way.. looking at a possible condit wins by decision prop


Shane Roller +230 Melvin looks like the obvious pick here, BUT he always loses by getting choked out, and well shane roller does exactly that, he chokes people out, rear naked, guillotine if this idiot melvin keeps leaving his neck out there like he usually does, this is gonna end same way him tapping... im gonna probably play the matchup here

[akatdrake]

I don't think Tito is live at +400, but maybe a little higher. He's old, and he got stymied by Matt Hamill... he is not able to take people down at will, and right now Bader is a superior wrestler and grappler than Tito is. Bader is far younger. Sure he's coming off that ridiculous loss where he did next to nothing against Jones, but Jones is going to be around much like Anderson Silva. Most people are going to look bad. Tito has never had KO power, but Bader does.

I hope Urijah wins, because I think he's just a way more marketable fighter than Cruz is, but I am leaning to Dominick. I liken Cruz's style to a Clay Guida in that he's go go go, but he's better at head and body movement, can submit and knock you out. Urijah is huge for 135 but he looked very lackluster against Eddie Wineland... maybe that's helping in his favor, but I expect to Cruz to leg-kick Faber to death much like Jose Aldo did. I'll probably stay away.

I'm with you on Leben, that's for sure. I like him, but I don't like him saying he's fighting his "idol," in Wanderlei. Remember when Pat Barry fought Cro-Cop? He freaking hugged and kissed him in the ring and that gave him a loss ala rear-naked in the third round. HOWEVER, I'm taking Leben because of a stone-cold chin, and if anything - finding this fight inside the distance would be a lock. (Though we thought the same of JDS/Carwin.)

This Condit/Korean Zombie fight is going to rule, so I'm going to stay away, most likely - but I'd lean to Condit.

You've given me some things to think about. Guillard has made a name for himself later in his career, again like Clay Guida, but you're right about Roller. He does submit people and he has some KO power :)

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

I have spent the last week or so trying to convince some brain dead people why there is no way in hell Cruz is going to lose this fight. So I will just advise you guys to lay on Cruz, and leave it at that. You are getting about -600 in value.

Another note I will leave...

Simpson - Tavares will be the same as Simpson - Leben but with a different result. Tavares WILL be taken down guaranteed, and does NOT have the cardio to keep getting back up and keep his KO power.. nor to keep continuing defending the take down. Simpson wins by easy UD, or gets the finish if the kid gives up on himself.

[akatdrake]

Hero, you need to post more. I like the thoughts and analysis. It's usually only me and Dukies for UFC, and Verified comes for boxing fights.

I agree with you on Cruz, I just don't see how Cruz loses this fight either. My buddy and I were trying to predict it, and I just don't see Faber outpointing Cruz, nor knocking him out.

I don't know enough about the Simpson/Tavares fight at all.

[akatdrake]

My card:

Chris Leben +145

Thinking I like Simpson, Cruz, and Roller as well.

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

Unreal.

I spent about 30-35 minutes typing up a response, and it logged me out when I hit reply. And the entire post was gone when I hit back............... talk about being pissed.

Oh well, good luck everyone.

My plays are Cruz, and Simpson each to win 1k.

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

Damn, the Simpson fight went exactly how I had described it on my post that didn't post up. Oh well.

Simpson with the easy 30-27.

[V3r1f13d]

Hell yeah.
Tito gets the W.

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

Wow... one guy had it 48-47??? I had it 49-46 myself, and could definitely understand the 50-45, but 48-47!? That's why you can't leave it to the judges.


Nonetheless, another fantastic MMA card. Winning doesn't get MUCH easier that that. GG's

[DukiesBaby]

No way.... uriah won that fight, that was a bs decision, he had 1st 3rd 4th round easily...


uriah was the agressor the whole fight, and landed all the punches that did damage, judges are joke...



good card though some great finishes even on the under card, TITO TITO TITO CASH THAT +400



I KEEP WATCHING THAT CONGO FIGHT FROM LAST WEEK OMG THAT COMEBACK KNOCK OUT WAS SO SIICK

[akatdrake]

Dominick Cruz (17-1, 0-0 UFC) vs. Urijah Faber (25-4, 1-0 UFC)
* Both of these guys are go go go, but Faber couldn't establish anything and for every shot he had, Cruz had two or three pop-ins and -outs. I had round one and two to Cruz, three and four to Faber, round five was a toss-up lean to the champion. Sal D'Amato needs to get his head out of his ass because 50-45 was ridiculous.

Unfortunately for the UFC, Cruz won, but he's not a marketable guy. Faber clearly has a huge following and though Cruz is making a name for himself - he'll have to have earn his keep to get a card by himself.

Wanderlei Silva (33-10-1, 1 NC, 3-5 UFC) vs. Chris Leben (25-7, 11-6 UFC)
* My only posted bet cashes, and I could have gotten it at +160/170 at fight-time, but I'll take it. Clearly Silva's chin is gone, and should probably follow Liddell and Couture into retirement.

Tito Ortiz (15-8-1, 14-8-1 UFC) vs. Ryan Bader (12-1, 5-1 UFC)
* I was shocked when this happened. I have a man-boner over Bader, but he's clearly overrated right now, doing nothing to Jon Jones and an old Tito. Good to see the Huntington Beach Bad Boy win, congrats to those who hit the big dog!!!

I was super impressed with Anthony Njokuani, he was crisp, fast, displayed some of that Bones Jones athleticism and really outclassed the one-dimensional Andre Winner. I'll be looking at Njokuani's name in further fights.

Aaron Simpson almost got caught a couple of times against Tavares' power, but pretty much had his way with his superior wrestling. Thanks to Hero's advice, I made a couple of unposted bucks.

You have to think Guillard's name gets thrown into the title shot picture now, don't you???

[akatdrake]

Dominick Cruz (17-1, 0-0 UFC) vs. Urijah Faber (25-4, 1-0 UFC)
* Both of these guys are go go go, but Faber couldn't establish anything and for every shot he had, Cruz had two or three pop-ins and -outs. I had round one and two to Cruz, three and four to Faber, round five was a toss-up lean to the champion. Sal D'Amato needs to get his head out of his ass because 50-45 was ridiculous.

Unfortunately for the UFC, Cruz won, but he's not a marketable guy. Faber clearly has a huge following and though Cruz is making a name for himself - he'll have to have earn his keep to get a card by himself.

Wanderlei Silva (33-10-1, 1 NC, 3-5 UFC) vs. Chris Leben (25-7, 11-6 UFC)
* My only posted bet cashes, and I could have gotten it at +160/170 at fight-time, but I'll take it. Clearly Silva's chin is gone, and should probably follow Liddell and Couture into retirement.

Tito Ortiz (15-8-1, 14-8-1 UFC) vs. Ryan Bader (12-1, 5-1 UFC)
* I was shocked when this happened. I have a man-boner over Bader, but he's clearly overrated right now, doing nothing to Jon Jones and an old Tito. Good to see the Huntington Beach Bad Boy win, congrats to those who hit the big dog!!!

I was super impressed with Anthony Njokuani, he was crisp, fast, displayed some of that Bones Jones athleticism and really outclassed the one-dimensional Andre Winner. I'll be looking at Njokuani's name in further fights.

Aaron Simpson almost got caught a couple of times against Tavares' power, but pretty much had his way with his superior wrestling. Thanks to Hero's advice, I made a couple of unposted bucks.

You have to think Guillard's name gets thrown into the title shot picture now, don't you???

[xHeroOfTheDayx]

Faber did not with that fight. Not in a millions years. The way the UFC point system is set up (albeit fu8ked), that was Cruz's fight the whole way.

Also, a 50-50 round NEVER goes to the challenger. To be the champ, you're expected to beat the champ. You'll definitely get no favors. Which is what makes Cruz so valuable.. you'll need to finish him to beat him, because you won't outwork him.

-------------

I have no idea how Simpson was under -300. He's toast once he faces the elite, but he has tons of value while he's facing these stepping stones. You'l get 110% dedicated from him, since he's 36, and cannot afford to slip up again. Look for a lot more lay n' pray from him, because it's the only chance he's got. Actually, a pretty good one until he faces the elite.

I knew Tito was live, but there was no way I could go against Bader there. I would of lost a LOT of money on that fight if I could of got Bader around -300. Thank god I couldn't haha.

Nice hit with Leben. Great value for a live dog in a slug fest. You were only paying for Silva's name there. Nice find!

[akatdrake]

Thanks for the thoughts Hero. I'm looking forward to the Fedor/Hendo fight!!