UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard III

[akatdrake]

October 6th
Houston, Texas

Fight Card
-----------------------------------------------------
Frankie Edgar -150 vs. Gray Maynard +120
Jose Aldo -320 vs. Kenny Florian +240
Chael Sonnen -260 vs. Brian Stann +200
Melvin Guillard -350 vs. Joe Lauzon +250
Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan

Demian Maia vs. Jorge Santiago
Anthony Pettis -280 vs. Jeremy Stephens +210
Joey Beltran vs. Stipe Miocic
Darren Elkins +120 vs. Tiequan Zhang -150
Eric Schafer vs. Aaron Simpson
Steve Cantwell vs. Mike Massenzio


Fight card has the makings to be a great one with the Garcia/Phan fight moving up... Garcia takes this fight on short notice as Matt Grice pulls out about a month ago. Edgar/Maynard 2 I had Edgar as a dog, but now the books have gave him respect after their awesome fight on Jan 1st. Thought Aldo would be higher than -320 as he will become Jon Jones/Anderson Silva/GSP-esque in terms of dominance. My guess this moves up toward fight night. UFC wants Florian as a champion, and I'm sure he gives Aldo a run for his money, but let's face it - less talented and we haven't even seen Aldo's BJJ yet. There's been no-need... he's just dominated on the ground. Florian may want to test it, as he's a heavy featherweight, but he'll be sorry. Some of you may have thought Aldo looked less Aldo-esque last fight over Mark Hominick, even beatable, but he was sick and still put that nasty hematoma on Mark's forehead.

Chael Sonnen has great wrestling, probably the best in the division... Stann's defense is adequate, but we haven't seen Stann on the ground lately. Sonnen takes it to the ground and grinds out a decision, ala GSP.

I like Aldo/Sonnen parlay, Nam Phan and Damien Maia, Joey Beltran and Aaron Simpson again.

[akatdrake]

Of Sonnen's 11 losses, eight have come via submission... Stann holds one sub win in his 11 wins, beating Mike Massenzio via triangle late in the third round of a non-title fight. Stann fought a pretty decent wrestler in Phil Davis at UFC 109 early 2010, and lost a three-round decision. I say pretty decent in that Davis might have the second best ground/wrestling game in the division.

It's obvious I'm looking at Sonnen here, as he wants to get back to a title shot vs the Spider.

[DukiesBaby]

I'm rolling with a wicked 3-spot this upcoming fight night...


Jose Aldo* -350
Chael Sonnen* -265
Nam Pham* -210


Risking 3 units to win 4.84 units




looking into possibly making some more parlays with the following guys mixed in and around too....


Steve Cantwell* -155
Anthony Pettis* -300
Demian Maia* -280
Melvin Guillard* -365
Gray Maynard* +115



could be a big day if things go my way

[DukiesBaby]

forgot to add, im gonna make a $10 2-3 spot on college football try win $40-$70 off it and if i hit im gonna seriously consider throughing all the winnings down on


Jose Aldo wins via submission +1142


i have a hunch this fight is gonna end with florian tapping out just came to me as i was browsing over all the prop bets

good luck this week drake

[akatdrake]

Few thoughts... really like Guillard tomorrow, as he's an entire tier above Louzon. I'm hesitant to put Pettis in those parlays, but the rest look good. I'm hoping for a good main event - probably going to stay away from the fight.

I just hope Florian can cause Aldo to use his BJJ - because he's never needed to so far in MMA. Apparently the dude is a master BJJ'er but yeah, we've never seen it. Florian has size as an advantage, but he's not really thick - just strong. But I don't see Aldo letting him get to the clench. Aldo by KO has to be a better bet, I think. I wouldn't ride a whole lot on him via sub, but that's just me.

Good luck!!

[akatdrake]

Aldo/Sonnen/Guillard +107 for two units

Damian Maia
Aaron Simpson/Schafer o1.5 +117 for one unit

[akatdrake]

Liking Elkins and Beltran, but most likely will be spur of the moment bets and not posted.

best of luck guys!

[akatdrake]

Well, missed most of the undercard, but was thankful to hit that 1* parlay.

Really surprised Guillard got his butt kicked by Lauzon but the rest of the card went pretty much the way I thought it would.

Was surprised Pettis has improved his wrestling, but with that comes a loss in his flashy attitude. Thought he barely won that decision over Stephens. Maia wasn't impressive, and let Santiago have plenty of opportunities to take advantage but unfortunately Santiago just was on the defensive the whole night. Being on top and controlling the match won Maia the decision.

The Phan/Garcia fight was Fight-of-the-Night, and boy does Garcia put on a show. Reminds me a lot of Ricardo Mayorga from about six or seven years ago... poor guy has a chin, lots of heart, but really lacks in the gameplan. He wanted to slug with Pham, but got outpointed as the two have vastly different striking styles. Pham was able to pull off more shots, and though I haven't seen the stats, probably landed quite a bit higher percentage.

Sonnen/Stann fight when pretty much the way I saw it... Sonnen is just the best wrestler in MMA, bar none. Calling out Spider Silva was his only move, and beating him would really make for a villian champion in the UFC and since Brock was dethroned, the UFC doesn't really have a villian anymore. He'd be good for the company. Stann, though a man's man, a guy you root for, just is too one-sided. Didn't do enough on the ground, attacking or defending, and Sonnen was able to pass his guard pretty easily on multiple occasions. I hope Stann keeps fighting, but he'll have to vastly improve his ground game to be anything more than a tier-2 in that division.

Same thing with Aldo. He's just too fast, too powerful, beats you at any game he wants to play, ala Spider Silva and GSP. This dismantling of Florian cements him as the number 3 pound-for-pound fighter in MMA. Florian was thought to be able to muscle smaller fighters around with his clench game, but Aldo was able to come at angles much like Dominick Cruz, keep KenFlo off-guard with those devastating leg kicks, and just outpoint his way to victory. At one point I thought Dukies Aldo by Sub bet was going to come in the fourth or fifth round, but it wasn't meant to be.

You know, what do you say about Frankie Edgar? The guy just knows how to win. The guy has tremendous heart. Getting romped in the first round much like their meeting on January 1st, I thought it was going to be over quick. Things kept going on, and then bam bam bam in the fourth round come the right hooks that Maynard could do nothing about. Unfortunately for Edgar, he'll have to keep training and stay on his toes because the winner of Ben Henderson/Clay Guida will keep Edgar active... I think Henderson is a better matchup, because he's got some KO power, but Edgar/Guida is going to be a boring wrestling/grappling fest.

Was right on my lean about Elkins, but off on Beltran. Average card, lost about one unit.