UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit

[akatdrake]

Feb. 4th, Las Vegas, Nevada

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Fight Card
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Carlos Condit vs. Nick Diaz
Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum
Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce
Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen
Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks
Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier
Jorge Lopez vs. Matt Riddle
Alex Caceres vs. Edwin Figueroa
Matt Brown vs. Chris Cope
Dan Stittgen vs. Stephen Thompson
Rafael Natal vs. Michael Kuiper

Haven't done well in my last two events, but I'll attribute that to late bets and not actually thinking a lot of things through.

I like this card, but it would have been better if GSP was fighting. Would have been interesting to see if Diaz was able to throw GSP off his game and get him to slug. With Condit coming to town, Diaz will get a war, and it will be an interesting fight. Both have excellent chins and striking. I'll probably pass on the main event or put it in a parlay, but haven't decided.
The Nelson/Werdum is an interesting matchup - I don't think Nelson gets in Werdums guard, and I think Nelson tries to keep it on the feet. Interesting that the last time Werdum fought a striker (Overeem), it was a pathetic display of Werdum falling to the ground and trying to entice Overeem to get in his guard. Overeem had none of that. I suspect we'll see more of the same, unless Werdum thinks he can strike? Nelson might try to wrestle Werdum but getting close to the world-renowned BJJ expert (possibly the best in the world) is a recipe of disaster.

[akatdrake]

It will be interesting to see what Koscheck's game plan will be vs Pierce. Koscheck has fallen off the board in that division when he's tried to strike - and he's a good one, but has gotten away from his great wrestling skill.

Both Scott Jorgenson and Ed Herman have been fighting well lately. Both will look to keep it going.

[AddictedToBetting]

Roy "Big Country" Nelson +120

Risking 5 units to win 6 units

GL

[akatdrake]

Good luck atb! I have Roy +135 right now. I just don't see Werdum doing much against Roy, but for some reason I cannot pull the trigger on him. A lot of the other fights, the lines are pretty jacked. Ed Herman -300 and Matt Riddle -400? Clifford Starks looked pretty focused on the weigh-in, and an impressive 8-0, and Henry Martinez took the fight on short notice but having Riddle that big of a fave? Ick.

Nick Diaz -210 to win one unit

I really only feel comfortable with this bet. Other lines are skewed and though I want to bet on Scott Jorgensen and the run he's on, Berao is something like 27-1 in his career. Not going there. Also said I wouldn't bet on anyone I hadn't seen fight before, so that cuts down on the plays.

[akatdrake]

0-3 last three UFC events, definitely on a downward spiral in this sport. Unfortunately most of the faves hit today (I think only dog was Condit) and I was on the wrong one! Oops.

Lots of people dissing Diaz here for retiring, but you know he'll probably start professional boxing. Watching the Countdown episodes, he looks like a troubled young man who has social anxieties and doesn't like the notarity of being an "on-stage" professional fighter. The guy wants to kick some ass. He's a tremendous athlete and a prideful human being. He comes off cocky and brash, much like the thug mentality he's portrayed as, but he's a heck of an athlete.

No doubt the GSP/Diaz fight would have been one of the highest grossing fights for the UFC so they lose that, and the sport loses a tremendous fighter. Good luck with what you decide to do from here Nick.