JML Week 4 in the CFL >>>

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

5-3, +2.36 Units

No lines out yet (the Greek is usually the first on Tuesdays)...but I'm going to take my best guess at what they will be. I did that last week, and had two big discrepencies between mine, and Vegas' take on the games...I had Tor -7 (Vegas had -3)...I had BC -2 (Vegas had +3.5!). I really think the CFL is the only sport where you can catch Vegas with a bad line, as I don't think they put the resources into it like the other big leagues.

JML Pointspread Guesses:

Montreal -1 Two pretty even teams who will most likely battle for the 2nd seed in the East. Montreal got their first win, but that was over the weak Ticats. Winnipeg showed nothing against the Eskies, and go on the road into tough Montreal. Slight edge to Montreal at home. I would need +4 either way to play this game.

BC -16 Best against worst. BC should roll huge at home. I would need -10 to play BC, and +22 to play Hamilton.

Edmonton +2 Riders came back to earth like I thought they would, and the offense looked horrible after finally playing a team with a good defence. Edmonton stuck with the Bombers like i thought they would, and even managed the outright win. I think Sask is still the best team here, but not by much in Edmonton. Don't like this matchup...I would need the Riders to get 4 to play them on the road...I won't play Edm unless they get 8.

Calgary +7 Stamps have looked awful their past two games, but now they return home, and will be rested. Toronto looks great, but will have a new QB. I will play Calgary getting 14 or more, or Toronto only giving 3.

We'll see what Vegas gives us...

[Angelus]

The Greek has:

Montreal -3
BC -16
Edmonton -2
Calgary -2

[Meestermike]

I like your line estimates JML ...

Hopefully I can improve on last week's dismal personal performance by yours truly.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Thanks guys...yeah, I checked Greek first thing.

From those openers, it looks like the only ones that seem off would be the Argos & Riders. Argos is a big play for me getting 2 points. Riders would be a play at +3. Wow. I know Calgary is at home...but this is not a good defensive football team, Burris is REALLY struggling, and it doesn't look like Akili is an option, as he's looked even worse. That Argo defense is the best in the league...no way should they be getting points. The best in the East getting points from the worst in the West? This line would be a bigger mistake than BC getting the 3.5 last week. Wow. Maybe it's because of McMahon getting the start...but he is a good QB, and I look for him to have a strong game after getting all the Reps this week.

I will definitely be on Toronto, no-brainer play IMO.

....and will most likely make a second play on Saskatchewan. The Riders actually didn't play awful, I watched the whole game...Joseph just had a brutal night. 4 of BC's TD's came right off of turnovers, giving Dickenson the ball inside the 20. When Dave had a long field, the Sask defence played well, and contained him. I think the Sask offence bounces back against a much weaker Edmonton defence, and the very good Rider defence pressures Ray all night. I think it's a case of the books taking to much stock in last week's final score. The Riders were over-valued because of a blowout against the weak Stamps, and now they are under-valued because of one lop-sided loss against the leagues best, in a game that really wasn't that lopsided!

If I could get those 2 getting a FG, I would be happy as a clam.

GL!

[rjp]

Hamilton isn't that bad JML.

Take the +16.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by rjp

Hamilton isn't that bad JML.

Take the +16.

From what I've seen they are! lol. I would consider it @ 20, but on the road against by far the league's best team...no thanks. This isn't American football...in the CFL, 16 points is nothing when games usually total 55+. BC does have some injury concerns at QB however with Dickenson out with a concussion, and Pierce probable with the injured throwing hand.

[rjp]

JML, I understand that, but this game has the lowest listed total of all four. Likely due to Hamilton's lack of respect, but +16 is a 54% bet!

I honestly don't know jack about the CFL, but I tear up the WNBA betting lines like this from a strictly statistical standpoint.

Oh, and there are no money lines listed yet, so how often do you figure the Lions win this game? 80%? 90%?

[Meestermike]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

If I could get those 2 getting a FG, I would be happy as a clam.

GL!

Here's 5Dimes reaction JML
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Montreal Alouettes - Week 4
Thu 7/19 451 Winnipeg Blue Bombers +2½ -110 Over 48 -110
7:30PM (EST) 452 Montreal Alouettes -2½ -110 Under 48 -110

Hamilton Tigercats at B.C. Lions - Week 4
Thu 7/19 453 Hamilton Tigercats +16 -110 Over 48 -110
10:30PM (EST) 454 B.C. Lions -16 -110 Under 48 -110

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Edmonton Eskimos - Week 4
Fri 7/20 455 Saskatchewan Roughriders +2 -110 Over 50 -110
9:00PM (EST) 456 Edmonton Eskimos -2 -110 Under 50 -110

Toronto Argonauts at Calgary Stampeders - Week 4
Sat 7/21 457 Toronto Argonauts +3 -110 Over 48 -110
7:00PM (EST) 458 Calgary Stampeders -3 -110 Under 48 -110

Personally, I'm really liking the Argos at +3, the Alouettes for only -2½, as well as being moderately impressed at the HAM\BC total of 48- I like the Under here and will sit & contemplate if the line moves up at all.

As well, I can see rationale in EDM only having to give up 2 at home and their total staying nicely under 50. Last 5 straight times at Commonwealth behemoth stadium, the final totals for these 2 teams have been well under their respective numbers which includes their 2004 playoff game.

The side on BC is too rich for me for $$$ on either team.
Last year: Sep 30 BC-Won at Hamilton, 28-8
and then 3 weeks later at home they just squeaked out a win at:
Oct 21 BC -Won vs. Hamilton, 23-17

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by rjp

JML, I understand that, but this game has the lowest listed total of all four. Likely due to Hamilton's lack of respect, but +16 is a 54% bet!

I honestly don't know jack about the CFL, but I tear up the WNBA betting lines like this from a strictly statistical standpoint.

Oh, and there are no money lines listed yet, so how often do you figure the Lions win this game? 80%? 90%?

I hear ya. From the numbers I can see it having value. 16 is a ton. And if I was forced to play this game, on this number, it would be with Hamilton (especcially with the BC QB problem). But it just seems from my experience of watching this league for the past 30 years, and I absolutely have no stats on this, but when the powerhouse CFL team meets the bottom-feeder CFL team, at home, they almost always win by 20+, unless something freaky happens like injuries or weather.

Just think there is better value on a couple others, so I'm laying off. Hope it hits for you!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by Meestermike

Here's 5Dimes reaction JML

The side on BC is too rich for me for $$$ on either team.

Thanks for the 5D, MM.
Pinny still seems to be the best with Tor +3 -105 / Sas +2.5 -107.

Yeah...I'm staying clear of BC/Ham as well....lots of points, starting QB decisions on both sides...that games a mess.

[rjp]

+16 -113 at Pinny and down to +15 at Olympic.

5Dimes and Bookmaker still have +16 -110. Drop it like it's hot.

+15 -110 is still good--it's a roughly 53.65% bet. I mis-typed earlier--+16 is a 55% bet.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Put my plays through today...but I'm staying away from the Thursday games. For my two plays this week, IMO I'm getting the better teams, and most importantly the far superior defences in both games...both getting a FG...and although I like the outright win by the road dogs in both of these games, I'll sure take the free points. I've stated my reasoning already, so no need to re-hash that. This Toronto line is just as bad of a mistake by Vegas as them unbelievably giving points to BC last week, and really is a joke IMO. Anyway... GL with your plays this week everyone, and enjoy the games!!

Saskatchewan +3 -112 vs Edmonton - 2 Units

Toronto +3 +100 vs Calgary - 4 Units

[rjp]

Why are there so many 2 points scored in the CFL?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Well, that Argo game sucked. It became a horrible play on Friday when Toronto's 2 top receivers, Miles & Bruce were injured in practice, and we listed as out. Mcmahon had like 3 rookie receivers to deal with and looked horrible. Thems da breaks....shoulda bought the play out Saturday, when I found that out, but I didn't.

rjp...there is a lot of single points because there is no touchbacks in the cfl, so for missed field goals, or punts into the endzone, the punt returner has the option of running it out (and risking bad field position) or giving up a single point. There are also alot of 2 point safeties given up volunterily in the cfl...kind of a quirky thing about the league. Because the field is longer, some teams feel that if you are inside your own 15 yard line or so it is better to run back and give up 2 because if you punt it, the other team will likely get the ball inside the 50 yard line, which is essentially already in FG range (and not far to go fo a TD). If you give up the safety, you get a free kick from the 40, and could pin the other team back, and get the ball back with good defence. Kinda weird but happens alot when a team is pinned deep in their own end.

[PaulM]

even with miles and bruce i still dont know if mcmahon woulda done much better cause he sure looked bad..even short passes he was over and underthrowing..that toronto d though sure played well to keep em in the game for 3 quarters..