Nigel Needs Some Input on Wed Game....

[Nigel Tufnel]

Haven't been around much...and haven't had the time I usually have to watch and cap games with work and three little ones. But I saw a line tonight that just boggles my mind, so before I jump on it, I'd like to get a little feedback here.

First, I firmly believe in the theory, if it looks too good to be true, it probably is. I also HATE taking road favorites in college basketball....BUT

Memphis -13.5 @ Cincy

I just don't get this one. I would have thought this line would have been between 19-24...no kidding. UC doesn't have a home court advantage this year. They've lost at home to Belmont by 11 and Bowling Green by 2. Their home wins are Western Carolina by 2, Coastal Carolina by 15, Fairfield by 5 and South Carolina Upstate by 12. Memphis has some solid neutral court wins and won @ UConn by 11.

I just can't envision a scenario where UC stays within 15 of Memphis. Could last week's 5 point loss @ Xavier have given UC some undue credit with this line? Anyone who saw that rugby last week @ Xavier shouldn't take anything useful away from that debacle.

It smells fishy, it looks like a trap....but UC is just not good. Memphis has the athletes, size and depth to win this game by 25.

Please help before I take this one hook, line and sinker.

Thanks.

[CuseFan10]

My thoughts are virtual verbatim of your sentiments. It should be 18-19, IMHO.

[Shamrock]

you're right, i'm looking into this..........

[homedawg]

vegas opened this game at mem -15 and now down as low as -13 ... mem may take it easy with GT on deck....

[Nigel Tufnel]

Originally Posted by homedawg

vegas opened this game at mem -15 and now down as low as -13 ... mem may take it easy with GT on deck....

Could be....I just have to wonder if Memphis can't beat UC by 15+ while taking it easy on the Bearcats.

[Shamrock]

That is the only thing i can come up with, HD. The fact that 8-0 GT is on Saturday, plus this being their first true road game.

Other than that, all signs point to 15+ vic.

Mem 8-0, 80PPG, 62 against, convincing wins all year, returning all starters, added rose.

Cincy, 4-5, 65 PPG, 66 against, rebuilding, squeeked by fairfiled, western carolina, SC upstate, outright losses to belmont and BG, no convincing victories. Played X well last weekend, but I attribute that to X not playing as well rather than Cincy being good.

I think Richmond is better than Cincy and Mem handled them by 17.....

That being said, the line, plus the line movement is shady.

I will probably add 2-3 units on Memphis....

[CuseFan10]

Originally Posted by homedawg

vegas opened this game at mem -15 and now down as low as -13 ... mem may take it easy with GT on deck....

Nice sarcastic HD jab there!!! Haha.. And a fair point. But Cincy has no size, and Memphis should outrebound them by a HUGE margin. HUGE.

Also, Cincy's best player is 6'1'' Deonta Vaughn and should get abused by Rose and Anderson. They put Chris Douglas-Roberts, with his incredible length, on Williamson and how is Cincy going to score in this one? I just don't see it. This is a HUGE mismatch everywhere on the court, IMHO. Vaughn might not crack Memphis's rotation, and that big stiff Hrycanuk will foul out in 20 minutes and then Cincy will have no one left over 6'7'' to play.

Also, Gentry got hurt in the Xavier game, so does anyone know his status? If he's is limited or can't play, they are further ****ed.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Gentry will be playing tonight. But I agree with everything you said, Cuse. Plus, if UC's center, Adam H., missed about 10 layups against Xavier, how is he going to do with the defensive pressure Memphis' frontline will pose? You have to think he'll be an absolute non-factor.

The only way I can see UC keeping this within 15 points is if they have some kind of crazy 3 point shooting game....its possible, but look at these stats for UC.

3-point FG pct......... .321
Field goal pct......... .408
Free throw pct......... .657

Where is it going to come from tonight to hang with Memphis. Memphis beat them last year 88-58...this year's Memphis squad is just as good, if not better...UC's squad is just as bad, if not worse.

[joepa66]

UC played their half of the year last week vs. X......can't see them keeping up with Memphisto either......GL Nigel!

[Nigel Tufnel]

Heh....why not. I see no reason why Memphis shouldn't cover this line. Haven't been playing much lately so I'll have to dig up my record when I've got a little more time.

Memphis -13 -- 5 units

A little larger play than usual...but I think the Tigers roll tonight.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Wow...what an ugly half by Memphis...they've got to have nothing but GT on their minds...credit to UC....wait.... ...ok, I feel better now. They didn't back down. Well, if I'm going down, I'm going down in a blaze of glory. Hoping UC blew their load with that late 1st half run and Calipari wakes up the troops at halftime.

2nd Half

Memphis -7 -- 3 units

GL!

[CuseFan10]

God, their free throw shooting is unbelievably bad.

[homedawg]

Originally Posted by CuseFan10

Nice sarcastic HD jab there!!! Haha..

I had no interest in this game. When I saw : Nigel Needs Some Input on Wed Game, I took the time to cap this game. I gave my input, simple as that. No sarcasm, I respect Nigel.. I thought this forum was about sharing information.......No regret!

[CuseFan10]

Originally Posted by homedawg

I had no interest in this game. When I saw : Nigel Needs Some Input on Wed Game, I took the time to cap this game. I gave my input, simple as that. No sarcasm, I respect Nigel.. I thought this forum was about sharing information.......No regret!

It is, you nailed it. Nice job.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Well, lost 2 units tonight...could have been worse. I will tell you this...Memphis pisses me off. They win by 10 points tonight and gave UC 3 free points with dumbass technical fouls when they were up by 14 in the 2nd half.

Earlier this year, I took Memphis in the 1st half against Oklahoma. Memphis was rolling them and then got 2 technical fouls in the first half. The line was like Memphis -3.5. They were up 10-12 and got those techs...it totally gave OU the momentum. Memphis ended up covering the 2nd half easily and covered for the game...but that lack of discipline is going to bite Memphis in the ass at some point.

Dorsey is a stud...I'm sure he gets bumped a lot...but he doesn't need to cry like a baby and get a technical foul after he hits a bucket....then Calipari cries like a baby when Dozier misses a left handed hook shot. 3 UC free throws. Sure, it doesn't affect the outcome of the game...it only affected the lines and my wagers....but if Memphis doesn't get some discipline, that **** may come back to haunt them in March, when it matters the most...and not just affect the line...but affect the outcome of the game.

You were right, HD. If it looks too good to be true....God, I hate road faves. My buddy's philosophy is this...its really hard to take a dog, regardless of the points (unless its something crazy like NY Jets +23 in a blizzard), if you don't think there is any chance of them being able to win the game outright....there may be something to that.

GL to everyone the rest of the way tonight....Saturday looks like it could be really interesting with all those great games.