Nigel's XU @ Auburn Breakdown and Pick

[Nigel Tufnel]

I'll have to search for my record...not been good...probably down about 8-9 units. I'm going to go ahead and hit this one early.

Xavier -9.5 @ Auburn -- 5 units

Ok, so here's my long winded breakdown of this one....read at your own risk. XU comes into this game riding high off of beatdowns at the hands of K-State and Virginia. The KState game was at US Bank Arena, so while it was in Cincy, there wasn't a huge crowd (being on 12/31) and it certainly wasn't at the Cintas. Virginia...well, that was just a beatdown. XU was up 61-30 at half and won 108-70. Everything went right against UVA, so a letdown could be coming against Auburn...well, I don't think so. Here is why: X is 11-3 this year. The three losses came @ Miami, OH, @ Az State and against Tenn. Miami was an early season abberation..even though Miami is a solid enough team. AZ St. was a 22 point drubbing....not making excuses, but it was a timing game in a long season. XU had come off a rugby type game against rival UC and won by 5 on Wednesday night...Josh Duncan was injured...they hopped on a plane and had to play Az. State on Saturday afternoon. Az State had a week off to prepare for X....it was a scheduling nightmare for X. They got crushed. Against Tenn, X had a 4 point lead with 3:48 left in the game...they simply choked down the end and Tenn wanted it more. Anyone who saw that game saw two high quality teams trading punches the entire game....Tenn took it at the end. Since the Az. State/Tenn back to back losses, XU killed Delaware State...they then crushed KState and Virginia. XU now rolls into Auburn.

XU hasn't won a true road game this year. They lost @ Miami and @ Az. State...that is why I think this is an absolutely HUGE game for X. They want a road win going into A10 conference play. This year...the A10 is pretty tough...XU will want a true road win going into conference play. Further, X has really upped its schedule this year...XU had a pre conference schedule that was a Big 6 tour....

XU beat IU on a neutral court in Chicago (Big 10)
XU lost to Az State in Az State (Pac 10)
XU beat UC in the Crosstown Shootout (Big East)
XU beat KState on a neutral floor (Big 12)
XU beat Virginia at home (ACC)
XU lost to Tenn at home (SEC)

This game is a chance for XU to beat 5 of 6 Big 6 conference schools in their pre conference schedule....that means a lot to a team like XU. Add to that...Auburn is 9-2 with all 9 wins coming against teams with 200+ RPI. Auburn is down to 6 scholarship players due to injuries. With the injury of Josh Duncan in the Crosstown Shootout, XU has gotten a lot of quality play from big man Jason Love. In their last two games, XU has had 7 players in double digits. XU has 5 guys that average double digits in points.

Auburn is not deep...they are injured and have 6 scholarship players...XU wants a chance to say they beat 5 of 6 in the Big 6 in their pre conference schedule. XU is still pissed off that they gave Tenn the game in the last 3 minutes. They want revenge against an SEC team....Auburn is going to be the sacrificial lamb.

IMHO, I see an Auburn team with 6 scholarship players playing against an XU team that is confident and wants two things: 1) a road win; and 2) to say they beat 5 of 6 Big 6 schools.

I like XU tomorrow by DDs....I'll grab this while its still in single digits. I think XU will wear Auburn's depleted squad down....and I can't stress how important it is to XU to have a strong road showing....esepecially against an SEC team.

I certainly don't think XU wins this game in the same fashion they did against KState and Virginia...but I do see them wearing down Auburn...plus, XU is one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country. Hence, I see XU winning this game by 15+.

Good luck.....

[FlushingHearts]

Great write up... I'm on X as well... they are rolling and Aub is injury depleted.

GL

[SuperSkins]

Nice writeup. GL with the play

[manmythlegend]

tailed u on this one so.....

[Stifler's Mom]

Awesome write up. I was on the fence with taking X or not (I felt it was the right play, but I despise road chalk, lol), and your write up was enough to make me confident in taking em.

Thanks, and great work

[wsox08]

Originally Posted by manmythlegend

tailed u on this one so.....

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

Awesome write up. I was on the fence with taking X or not (I felt it was the right play, but I despise road chalk, lol), and your write up was enough to make me confident in taking em.

Thanks, and great work

agree with both of these guys.. Thanks

[Nigel Tufnel]

Thanks guys...glad we could all cash. Auburn played well the first 5 minutes of each half and just wore down after those first 5 minutes. I like this X team....but I think they are going to run into some trouble in the A10. They fall in love with the three (hard not to when they are shooting over 60% from 3 in the last 3 games) and as much as I love X, honestly, KState, Virginia and Auburn are not very good.

Maybe I'm not giving X enough credit...they have seemingly put on clinics in the last 3 games...I guess I just don't want them to get full of themselves...because while they're good, they're very beatable.

Should be interesting to see how they do in what should be a rough A10....that sounds really funny....a tough A10...lol. But with UMASS, URI, St. Joe, Dayton, Charlotte....it won't be the cakewalk its been in the past.

GL guys!!

[CuseFan10]

The A-10 is a very solid conference this year, I agree. Should probably send 3 teams to the tourney minimum if the right teams play well and get the respect they deserve. I actually don't even think sending 4 is an outrageous statement, but it has to play out.

Nice hit on your boys

[Troubleduke]

Nice Call