Early Line For Saturday -- Dayton -6.5 @ St. Louis

[Nigel Tufnel]

In the wake of the SLU/GW debacle, I thought I would post this....So, I guess if Dayton can reach the 27 point mark, they have a shot at covering this spread...I'm guessing this line goes WAY up....but its the road conference team.

Thoughts?

[Stifler's Mom]

My guess would be that the public will over react to the suckyness of St Louis last night and pound the living **** out of Dayton, and yes, drive the line up.

The value will probably end up being on STL once is all said and done at game time though....as I have to believe they can't possibly be as bad as last night, and they'll be out to prove that, and will probably play much better and at least hang in the game.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Well, after last night's debacle, I'm a little gun shy to even offer my opinion. SLU has historically been a pretty good home team...but after watching last night...egad. Of course, after shooting 7-48, you'd think things would even out a little bit. Dayton's defense (even though URI scored some points on them) is much, much better than GW's. Nothing surprises me anymore in college hoops...can't say I'd be totally shocked if they kept it close. How do 18-22 year olds, on the 17th ranked team in the country, mentally deal with playing a team that scored 20 points just two nights earlier against a subpar conference team? I have no idea.

Xavier is giving Fordham 20 points tomorrow. I'm going to keep an eye on that one. Sean Miller was as pissed as I've ever heard him after the Bonaventure game...I'm predicting Xavier's players will be ready to lay a whupping on somebody...and Fordham hasn't been playing all that well of late.

St. Bonaventure is giving LaSalle 2 points up in Olean...I think there could be some value in taking the Bonnies at home. Schmidt is doing a good job up there trying to revitalize that program and I think the Bonnies will have some confidence after keeping the Xavier game fairly close.

But, as of right now, I expect nobody to listen to anything I have to say...lol.

[fitter]

Agree w/you on X Nigel, but am wondering why anyone would touch the SLU game after their last showing. Do they come out pissed and try to redeem themselves after a huge embarrassment, or do they really just plain suck! Why take the chance....look for other values....just my input.

[Stifler's Mom]

Because of the possible huge line value on STL. Had STL been mildly competitive vs GW the other night, this line would have probably been like STL +1.5 or something. It's now +4.5 to +5.5 depending on the book. Might still be able to grab a +6 out there somewhere (i'll be trying to, lol)

So there's 90% on Dayton, and the line has dropped as much as 2 points? A definite indicator that sharper players feel there's value on STL as well.

IMHO, you just can't base your opinion of a team on one game, but the public does, and you gotta jump on line value that comes as a result of public overreaction when it's there....which is normally right after a ****ty performance.

Sometimes you'll get burned, but you gotta just accept it and move on.

Or, like you said, you could just be safe and completely avoid that team all together, lol

[Nigel Tufnel]

Originally Posted by fitter

Agree w/you on X Nigel, but am wondering why anyone would touch the SLU game after their last showing. Do they come out pissed and try to redeem themselves after a huge embarrassment, or do they really just plain suck! Why take the chance....look for other values....just my input.

I'm sorry if you misunderstood....I have no intention of doing anything with the SLU/UD game. I just said that in college hoops, nothing surprises me, so I wouldn't be shocked to see SLU stay within the number or even pull out a win...but I'm certainly not putting any money on SLU today. Just too many factors that can't be gauged in that one...how will SLU react? What is their mindset? What will the UD player's mindsets be?

Don't want anything to do with it...sorry for the confusion.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

Because of the possible huge line value on STL. Had STL been mildly competitive vs GW the other night, this line would have probably been like STL +1.5 or something. It's now +4.5 to +5.5 depending on the book. Might still be able to grab a +6 out there somewhere (i'll be trying to, lol)

So there's 90% on Dayton, and the line has dropped as much as 2 points? A definite indicator that sharper players feel there's value on STL as well.

IMHO, you just can't base your opinion of a team on one game, but the public does, and you gotta jump on line value that comes as a result of public overreaction when it's there....which is normally right after a ****ty performance.

Sometimes you'll get burned, but you gotta just accept it and move on.

Or, like you said, you could just be safe and completely avoid that team all together, lol

one other point on this game/line. SLU is at home today. Which apparently is big for them seeing they have scored 20, 39 and 40 points in their L3 road games. They are an awful road team and were before last night as well. But this one is at home and DAY is coming off a really really big win. Letdown spot if there is one for DAY. I wouldn't play this unless i could get as you said stif, close to 6, but at close to 6, it's worth a play if you are so daring.

[Franchise]

As a big UD fan I have seen several of their games. While this would be a potential letdown game I think people are overestimating the URI game. They have already beaten 2 Top 15 teams this season (at the time of the game). Dayton has been solid on the road going 3-1 and this is easily the worst teams they have played. Although none of those games would have covered this number. That being said I would be very surprised if the fundamentally sound and defensive led Flyers would lose the game especially with Roberts coming off his worst game of the season (7 TO's). When I play a dog I like to believe they can win and I just don't see it here. The game At Richmond on Jan 26 is a great spot to play against the Flyers though.

The information I have heard on St Louis is one of their problems is the two leading scorers are very frustrated with Majerus because he is trying to rebuild instead of put together the best season possible. This has led to the inconsistent and declining level of play as the season has worn on.

[fitter]

Agree Nigel...nothing surprises me with this CBB season...sort of a continuation of the CFB season. Didn't mean to imply anything...just stating my opinion. I'll be watching the outcome of the SLU game though, and see if the last game was really just a bad game (although they seem to travel badly), or other things. Some of those have been posted here. Be interesting to see. BOL Nigel. ( I still cannot fathom 7 1st H pts, and 20 total...you'd seem that the would make that by mistake!!)

[CuseFan10]

I think it's probably a game to just stay away from even if you might be getting perceived value with Saint Louis - which I agree there is. With 100 games on the slate, I just think that's one to avoid.

[wsox08]

Nigel: was curious to see if you had any thoughts on Richmond +14.5 at St. Joes.