Monday 2/18 Faders

[Stifler's Mom]

ytd 235-252 (-70.72 units)

Xavier +2
Texas A&M +5
Gonzaga -6.5

2 units each

[Stifler's Mom]

Yay Xavier.

St Mary's -7.5 (-105) for 1st half

2 units

[Stifler's Mom]

Wow, really had to sweat out that St Mary's 1H play. Hopefully this one is as nice...

St Mary's/Pepperdine under 80 (2nd half)

2 units

[gsad]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

Wow, really had to sweat out that St Mary's 1H play. Hopefully this one is as nice...

St Mary's/Pepperdine under 80 (2nd half)

2 units

looks like an offense only practice broke out.

[Stifler's Mom]

I know. I figured St Mary's would slow down the tempo a little, and also the rate at which they were draining 3's would drop as well. Granted they were always wide open, but they really shot the lights out tonight. The only thing they slowed down was the rate at which they played defense....which was little to none in the 2H.

They never did slow it down either on offense. I guess they had to get their 100 points.

It annoyed me a little that St Mary's was defending in the back court and got some cheap ones off steals when they were up 30+ in the 2nd half too.

That 2H plays hits way more times than not though, IMO. It just didn't tonight

[Stifler's Mom]

LOL, San Diego never had a hope in hell of winning that game, yet they cover the relatively short number by bombing up a few threes in the last few minutes and hitting em to make it close, and some lovely Gonzaga free throw shooting around mid 2nd half when they could have basically gone up about 15 and put it away.

Really, how many minutes of that game was San Diego losing by 6 or less? Like 4? Maybe 5?

That's why they're fades though.....cause this season has just been straight ****ed up. Picking the right side means nothing on the scoreboard this year.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by Stifler's Mom

LOL, San Diego never had a hope in hell of winning that game, yet they cover the relatively short number by bombing up a few threes in the last few minutes and hitting em to make it close, and some lovely Gonzaga free throw shooting around mid 2nd half when they could have basically gone up about 15 and put it away.

Really, how many minutes of that game was San Diego losing by 6 or less? Like 4? Maybe 5?

That's why they're fades though.....cause this season has just been straight ****ed up. Picking the right side means nothing on the scoreboard this year.

stif- i am the first guy to back you on your bad beats, but this wasn't one of them. i watched the whole game and Gonzaga was up 6-8 points for most of the 2nd half. And USD was i believe 5-13 or so in the first half at the FT line, so it went both ways. I don't really think either side was the right play here. It's dangerous laying 7 points on the road vs. a team that is certainly capable from your conference. This game hovered within 2 points of the number for pretty much the last 10 minutes. Gonzaga would go up 9 and then USD would cut it to 5 or 6............

congrats on shaving 20 off your deficit in about 3 days....

[Stifler's Mom]

I wasn't really saying either loss on the late games last night (Gonzaga side and Pepperdine/St Mary's 2H total) were bad beats, but rather that I think both of them would cover more times than they didn't, after watching the games, yet with the way this season has gone, I of course didn't get either.

Basically, SD never had a shot to win that game. They never led, if i remember correctly. Not once. Nor did they really every even legitimately threaten to take the lead.

A general rule of thumb I TRY to go by is to NOT play a dog of under +10 in hoops if I don't think they have a truly legit shot of winning outright. Similar to the "pick the winner" thing I use in the NFL. It's just something I heard a long time ago, and it's helped me lay off dogs that look "juicy" at about +7.5 or so, but usually don't end up covering, especially road dogs in that price range. It's certainly not as effective as the pick the winner thing in the NFL, but never the less, it does seem to hold true plenty.

Unfortunately, I sometimes forget that rule and fall victim to the old "backdoor fave cover" by the fouling 17 times in the last 30 seconds thing. That, and I see far too many dogs having a shot to win than I should.

Anyway, SD never ever had a chance of taking that game outright, nor do I believe they would beat Gonzaga outright more than maybe 10% of the time (at best), so I feel like I did the right thing by taking Gonzaga minus the points.