Who needs to do what in the next week+?

[FlyersFan]

This is a Cusefan special here, but curious what people's thoughts were on certain teams/conferences. Play wraps up in most of the garbage conferences this coming Saturday, so this is the last week of play for greats like the MAAC, Sun Belt, BigSouth, Patriot, Horizon, Ohio Valley, Southern and even the MVC.


I think UAZ punched their ticket today with the win over WSU at WSU. They have 4 games left and have to split but get a freebie at OREST and then have the LA schools coming to the desert. With their schedule and RPI .500 in the Pac10 should do it for sure. Especially since the losing streak coincides with the loss of their PG Wise. Pac10 will get 6 teams and maybe 7 (call me crazy). That is by far the toughest conference from top to bottom. Outside of OREST there are no free wins even at home in that league.

DRAKE punched their ticket today with a win over BUTLER, if their was any doubt. I really don't think the MVC is a 2 bid league this year, though. ILLST is 2nd and doesn't have a quality win to its name (Cincy is a stretch, IMO)

A-10 this week proved it's a 1 bid league, IMO. Rhode Island's 20-7 is phony and they just took it in the ass twice at home this week in games they needed to win for the resume.

KENTST went a long way in solidifying a spot for sure with a road win at StMary's. 22-7 but really no quality wins other than that one. But i don't see how you can include StMary's without including KENTST now and i think StMary's is going to get in which means KENTST should as well.

WAC took a beating on Saturday and IMO is a 1 bid league i don't care how many phony 20 win teams you have. When first place Boise gets destroyed on its home floor by Sienna that says a lot about that conference. NEV not even competitive at SIU, HAW gets waxed by freeking UCRiverside. 1 Bid, enjoy the fight for it guys.

SOALA should have cemented a spot barring a collapse with the sweep of WKY and a win on the slate over MISSST. WKY on the other hand i think is very suspect. Lost both games to the only decent team by a mile in their league in SOALA, and no quality wins on their slate. They define "bubble team", IMO, and as stupid as this ESPN bracket **** is, they are one of the few teams that could have used a bracket buster matchup against a team like St.Mary's/Kent/Butler etc.....but they didn't play one.

BAYLOR.....they are going to broadcast that win in November over ND loudly. They did beat KST tonight at home, but other than that they haven't beaten anyone other than a very suspect TXAM team that i am still trying to figure out how they are ranked. I think they need to take care of business and win 2 of their next 4 games and then win a game in the tourney over somebody decent. I think they are going to be one of the teams scraping for one of the last spots on Selection Sunday unless they get hot. Games left at Colorado and TortillaTech, then home vs. Mizzou and TxAM. Probably will end up getting a bid in the end, but losing 6 of L8 doesn't help.

OlePISS...once was a lock for the tourney, now have lost 5 of L7 and one of those wins was over Presbyterian. I personally think they need to win 3 of L4 conference games and then win a conference tourney game or maybe even 2. Signature win is probably Clemson if there is one.

ARK....same boat as OlePiss, IMO. Has to win 3 of L4 conference games and then win a conference tourney game or 2. SEC just isn't all that solid this year outside of Tennessee and maybe Vandy and MISSST. Their signature win is over BAY at BAY i believe, which may be a plus if they are one of the last teams battling for a spot with BAY.

Mountain West Conference........is a 1 bid league, IMO, unless BYU loses the conference tourney. UNLV hasn't beaten anyone this year and their only marquee wins are over BYU and UNM in conference play. Then they go on the road to BYU and lose by 30+. I do think they probably give BYU a bid based on a close game vs. UNC and Michigan State and a win over Louisville, though, Louisville wasn't the same team they are now. Plus they will most likely have won the conference.

UMD............wow...are they working hard on not making the tourney. A bad home loss vs. VTECH this week when they blew a 10 point 2H lead and then the road loss to Miami(fl)....how far does that win at UNC take them because they haven't beaten anyone outside of that game. I really think they have a lot of work to do and the ACC is maybe even a 3 bid league this year (duke, clemson and UNC). They have to beat Clemson at home and win one of their 2 road games, then make a little noise in the ACC tourney, IMO to have a shot. If not Hello NIT.

BigEast......i honestly think they end up getting 8 teams in unless somebody collapses out of the WVU/PITT/MARQ/SYR stable. Maybe even 9 with Villanova coming on. Problem is unlike the Pac10, the big east is top heavy. The bottom half of the big east is as bad as the WAC, IMO. So lots of free wins. Bad losses like SYR at SoFLA may come back to haunt them.

one thing helping the power conferences is that i really don't think the "mid-majors" are going to have that many teams to offer other than if conference tourney upsets occur. In years past the MVC may have gotten 3-4 teams....they are 2 tops this year and the only way they get the 2nd team is based on past performance. I think that barring upsets we are going to see teams like a 19-12 Arkansas team get in where they may not have in year's past. but then again, it all depends on the ability of the Drakes, Butlers, KentStates, SOALA's BYU's to win their conference tourneys.

and finally....................

my NIT-eyes. I really don't think they are a NCAA caliber team and the loss to IU at home last week+ ago really hurt. They absolutely must beat both Wisconsin (Sunday) and then Purdue in a week and a half to have any hopes. Then i think they have to make the semis of the big10 tourney. Very close road losses at Tennessee and UNC and win over Syracuse help. But losing a 10 point lead and getting wallopped by Butler by 20 doesn't help, nor does getting pasted by TexasAM. They are another team that right now is out, but can certainly play their way in during the next 2+ weeks.


just some random thoughts. way too much to cover and im not into making a "64 team field" in advance because it really is useless (though probably fun) and changes daily as evidenced by a team like OSU who is out now but could very well be well in after the next 10 days.

getting to be crunch time and i need a break and im done gambling till the tourney but still love this time of the year...

[CuseFan10]

This thread brings a tear to my eye, haha.. I'll post my 65 later tonight. This last week really jumbled things up with Miami coming on strong and Maryland fading. The A-10 had a legit shot at four bids at one point and now I'd say two, maybe three, will be the number. The Big East and Pac 10 could send 18 teams and no one should blink an eye. The ACC is flat out awful this year, and the B-12 is a cut and dry six after Baylor's win last night and Big 10 is cut and dry after we find out what OSU does today and against Purdue. SEC has four in easy with probably one more spot of for grabs between Kentucky and Florida (Ole Miss is done, IMHO).

The Mid Majors are really lacking this year. WCC is obviously getting their two, MWC will probably get two, MVC will get two (only because SIU is going to win that conf tourney), CONF USA should only get 1 IMHO, and the Sun Belt and Horizon have their big dogs of Butler and South Alabama.

I'll try to break it down with RPI/SOS numbers later on.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by CuseFan10

This thread brings a tear to my eye, haha.. I'll post my 65 later tonight. This last week really jumbled things up with Miami coming on strong and Maryland fading. The A-10 had a legit shot at four bids at one point and now I'd say two, maybe three, will be the number. The Big East and Pac 10 could send 18 teams and no one should blink an eye. The ACC is flat out awful this year, and the B-12 is a cut and dry six after Baylor's win last night and Big 10 is cut and dry after we find out what OSU does today and against Purdue. SEC has four in easy with probably one more spot of for grabs between Kentucky and Florida (Ole Miss is done, IMHO).

The Mid Majors are really lacking this year. WCC is obviously getting their two, MWC will probably get two, MVC will get two (only because SIU is going to win that conf tourney), CONF USA should only get 1 IMHO, and the Sun Belt and Horizon have their big dogs of Butler and South Alabama.

I'll try to break it down with RPI/SOS numbers later on.

lol....knew you would be the first to respond cuse....

how in the world is the A-10 going to get more than 1 team in........

[Nigel Tufnel]

Well, Flyers, you earlier compared Dayton's at large chances to NJIT or whomever. But truth be told....Dayton is 34 in the RPI with a SOS of 39. If they can beat Xavier and St. Joe at home, to .500 in league or even a game above .500, win one game in the A10 tourney, then they may very well be in as an at large. Not to mention that they beat Louisville and Pitt in non conference play. That's a lot of "ifs" but their at large chances aren't completely gone. They also get the injury losses consideration too.

X is in...if X doesn't win the conference tourney, then there are obviously 2 teams in. A lot depends on these last couple of weeks and the A10 tourney.

Any combination of Xavier, A10 tourney winner if not X and UMass, St. Joe, URI or Dayton are possible, albeit not likely.

I'm interested to see if X can get a 2 seed. Current RPI of 6 with SOS at 18. I think if X wins out, they are a lock for a 2 seed at 30-4 and a top 5 RPI likely. If X can win out with the exception of @ St. Joe's, then they may still have a shot at the 2 seed.

Should be fun.

[CuseFan10]

The A-10 RPI numbers are VERY STRONG and they are overall the 7th rated conference (meaning first of the non-BCS). Xavier and UMass ar firmly in right now, IMO (unless UMass chokes - they are 32 RPI and 28 SOS), and when looking at Dayton (33 RPI, 39 SOS) the committee has to take into account the loss of Wright. The problem with Dayton is that they are 5-7 in conference and they simply don't deserve to make it because of that alone.

The A-10 gets 2 minimum, three possible IMHO. Couple weeks ago they had a lock on four bids I thought but they've blown it.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by CuseFan10

The A-10 RPI numbers are VERY STRONG and they are overall the 7th rated conference (meaning first of the non-BCS). Xavier and UMass ar firmly in right now, IMO (unless UMass chokes - they are 32 RPI and 28 SOS), and when looking at Dayton (33 RPI, 39 SOS) the committee has to take into account the loss of Wright. The problem with Dayton is that they are 5-7 in conference and they simply don't deserve to make it because of that alone.

The A-10 gets 2 minimum, three possible IMHO. Couple weeks ago they had a lock on four bids I thought but they've blown it.

see i guess i don't get it. UMASS is 17-9 and 6-6 in a very average league, IMO. Their only decent win was at SYR and SYR is a fringe team. They lost to X at home who, IMO, is the only legit team in that conference. DAY does have injuries and as an Ohio guy i would love to see X and DAY make it. But DAY is 5-7 in conference and has lost 6 of L8 games or something like that. And we have seen in the past where some years RPI really matters and other years it doesn't. UMASS' SOS isn't going to be helped by their L4 games. I think that if DAY or UMASS make a run deep in the A-10 tourney they are in. But if they lose in the first round or 2, no way they make it in my world.

I mean seriously...look at the schedules for the top half of the A-10 and find me the quality wins......STJOES beat Villanova and that's about it. DAY did have wins over PIT and LOU but PIT had just had all those injuries themselves and LOU clearly wasn't the LOU they are now. But good wins none the less.

I guess i really don't get conference RPI because most of those teams beat a bunch of nobodys

[CuseFan10]

FF- Much of what you say I d o agree with. It's hard to put a team like Dayton in with a .500 conference record, and there's simply no way on Earth they get with an under .500 record. The only reason the A-10 is getting so much consideration is because the ACC sucks and really only has 4 deserving teams with Maryland's collapse.

Those A-10 teams, IMHO, are better than like Houston and/or UAB. If Houston gets in, it's a crime. They are the epitome of soft scheduling and haven't beaten one good team all year. Leaving Syracuse out last year better have set a precedent that you need to play people, and Houston has no business even getting consideration if you ask me.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by CuseFan10

and Houston has no business even getting consideration if you ask me.

....maybe one of the worst schedules in any league....they did play UAZ at home and were taken to task for much of that game. They lost to the only 3 even semi-decent teams on their docket. KY win shouldn't garner much consideration because that was a completely differnent KY team.

I am also not one who puts weight on a win based on the name on the jersey. If you beat LOU in November without Padgett, so what. If you beat KY in mid December, so what.

[wsox08]

American East: (1) UMBC
ACC: (5) UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Miami
Atlantic Sun: (1), Belmont
A10:(1 or 2) Xavier, St. Joes?
Big East:(8) Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn, Marquette, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Syracuse?
Big Sky: (1) Portland State
Big South: (1) Winthrop
Big Ten: (4) Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State
Big 12: (5)Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas AM, Baylor?
Big West: (1) Fullerton/Northridge
CAA: (1) VCU
CUSA: (1) Memphis
Horizon: (1) Butler
Ivy: (1) Cornell
MAAC: (1) Niagara/Rider/Siena
MAC: (1) Kent State, (add another team if Kent doesn't win conference tourney)
MEAC: (1) Morgan State
Missouri Valley: (1) Drake
Mountain West: (1) BYU
Northeast: (1) Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: (1) Austin Peay
Pac 10: (5) UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Arizona/ASU
Patriot: (1) American
SEC: (5) Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Arkansas
Southern: (1) Davidson
Southland: (1) Lamar
Summit: (1) Oral Roberts
Sun Belt: (1) South Alabama
SWAC: (1) Alabama State
WAC: (1) Boise State
WCC: (2) St. Mary's, Gonzaga

I have 57 here ( think)..

A10 is tough. UMass won at Syracuse, at BC, but loses to StJoes twice, and at Temple, and home vs. Fordham are bad losses.
Rhode Island has played themselves out of the tourney by losing 4 of last 5.
I guess if I had to I would put Xavier automatically, and maybe just the team that wins the conference tourney in.

ACC: Maryland has played themselves out of the tourney recently.

BigTen: At this time I don't have OSU in but if they go to Indiana and win and either beat Purdue/MSU at home then I might change my mind.

Baylor is up in the air. I would slip them in after they just beat KSU, but losses to OK twice, and Texas twice don't help.

Arizona has had a tough schedule and I would put them in over ASU but ASU beat them twice so I'm unsure about that.

[FlyersFan]

wsox- one thing i can tell you almost certainlyis the Pac10 is a 6 bid league and maybe a 7 bid league and deservedly so. ASU belongs with a sweep of Arizona, a win over Xavier etc......both ASU and UAZ will get in barring a collapse. Then it is a battle between CAL and ORE to see if either team can make a huge run and get in.

OSU is currently playing themselves out of the tourney more and more as today goes on. I don't really want them to make it anyway because they won't win a game and are just wasting a spot.

Agree with a most of those..., but no way the ACC and Pac10 get the same amount of teams. ACC as cuse said really stinks and the Pac10 is IMO the best conference in hoops. There is not a conference in the NCAA's that has less freebies than the Pac10. Outside or OREST, they have 9 teams capable of beating anyone.

what about the Illini.........

[wsox08]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

wsox- one thing i can tell you almost certainlyis the Pac10 is a 6 bid league and maybe a 7 bid league and deservedly so. ASU belongs with a sweep of Arizona, a win over Xavier etc......both ASU and UAZ will get in barring a collapse. Then it is a battle between CAL and ORE to see if either team can make a huge run and get in.

OSU is currently playing themselves out of the tourney more and more as today goes on. I don't really want them to make it anyway because they won't win a game and are just wasting a spot.

Agree with a most of those..., but no way the ACC and Pac10 get the same amount of teams. ACC as cuse said really stinks and the Pac10 is IMO the best conference in hoops. There is not a conference in the NCAA's that has less freebies than the Pac10. Outside or OREST, they have 9 teams capable of beating anyone.

what about the Illini.........

yeah I would add ASU and Arizona.. but I have no been impressed with Oregon lately (blowing 2 games in the 2H), so I'd leave them out. I'm not too familiar with Cal but I would give the Pac 10 6 bids. I don't see OSU getting a bid by how they have been playing. They don't have any big wins and have lost to all the "good" teams they've played.


I was going to make an Illini joke but I figured it wouldn't have been funny.. Let's hope Wright State covers tonight

[CuseFan10]

Yea no offense wsox, but I think you are a bit off on the power conferences and who deserves to go. The Pac 10 is getting 6 at the absolute minimum and they deserve 7, maybe even all 8.

I'm getting my stuff together now. You also left out Oklahoma which has great numbers. When I post mine, I'll try to give as much inf on each team as a I can via SOS, RPI and Top 50 wins vs teams like Houston who are like 14-0 against 200-318 are something ridiculous..

[CuseFan10]

A tricky "science" this predicting is, and all of this can change in a day, two days. Conference tourneys this year though actually shouldn't have much of an effect at all with regard to "bid stealing". Conf USA (Memphis), the Horizon (Butler), and the Missouri Valley (Drake) are the only conferences where you can guarantee those parenthetical teams are going regardless. The Atlantic 10 could have a surprise, but it would probably come at the hands of one of its own teams in the end, same applies to the Mountain West in all liklihood, IMHO. Other possible trouble makers could be the Sun Belt with South Alabama losing in a final to Western Kentucky and the Mid American with Kent State losing in a final to Akron. I base things off RPI and SOS, non-conference RPI and SOS, conference record, Top 50 wins, Top 100 wins, and last 10 games..... Here's what I got:

One bid conferences no matter what happens in conference tourney: (17)
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Ivy League, MAAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summitt, WAC

Likely one bid conferences but "bid stealer" possibilities: (5)
Conference USA - Memphis (definitely in)
Horizon - Butler (definitely in)
Mid American - Kent State (could maybe get in with loss to Akron in conference final)
Missouri Valley - Drake (definitely in)
Sun Belt - South Alabama (could maybe get in with loss to Western Kentucky in conference final)

-------------> (22 bids)

Numbers are (RPI/SOS)
*** Teams in bold are in no matter what IMHO and those not are fringe teams still with work to do.
ACC (5) - North Carolina (3/4), Duke (4/8), Clemson (23/26), Miami (25/34), Maryland (65/16)
A-10 (3) - Xavier (6/18), Massachusetts (32/28), Saint Josephs (54/89)
BE (7) - Georgetown (7/42), Connecticut (12/13), Louisville (15/17), Notre Dame (21/73), Marquette (17/25), Pittsburgh (20/33), West Virginia (36/43)
B10 (5) - Wisconsin (14/51), Indiana (19/76), Purdue (29/85), Michigan State (13/52), Ohio State (48/49)
B12 (6) - Texas (5/3), Kansas (8/60), Kansas State (39/35), Oklahoma (28/6), Baylor (37/32), Texas A&M (44/77)
P10 (6) - UCLA (9/38), Stanford (22/105), Washington State (24/57), Arizona (16/1), USC (40/21), Arizona State (71/78)
SEC (4) - Tennessee (1/2), Vanderbilt (10/50), Mississippi State (41/53), Arkansas (38/45)
WCC (2) - Saint Marys (31/142), Gonzaga (35/96)
MWC (2) - BYU (27/92), UNLV (34/82)

THAT GROUP EQUATES TO 40 MORE BIDS, SO I HAVE THREE SPOTS LEFT:

1- One of Villanova or Syracuse will get one, IMHO prob Villanova
2- Another SEC school will get in, sadly maybe Kentucky
3- Southern Illinois is going to win the the MWC tourney I think and even if they don't their RPI-SOS is (50/10) and non-conference RPI-SOS is (54/4). They are very deserving.

Makes (65)

TEAMS LEFT OUT AND WHY:
Wake Forest - 3 Top 50 wins, but low numbers (67/95 conf) and (82/162 non conf)
Virginia Tech - 0 Top 50 wins... goodnight.
Dayton - If they win out they get to 8-8 in the A-10 and that just won't cut it no matetr how good their numbers are.
Rhode Island - Lost 3 in a row and really just played themselves out on their own.
Syracuse - 2-9 vs Top 50, 5 Top 100 wins. Deserve to be there, but won't even with (46/14 conf) and (32/19 non conf).
Oregon - Lost 8 of last 11 games and only 6-9 in conf. (57/9 conf) good, but (66/152 non conf) not.
Florida - Only one Top 50 win and only 3 Top 100 wins. (59/117 conf) and (99/202) are not good and awful.
Kentucky - Hard to deny, 3 Top 50 wins but no wins vs 51-100. (64/20 conf) and (203/97 non conf) not enough even at 9-3 SEC.
Mississippi - 4-8 in conference, goodnight. Even with 5 Top 50 wins, that's brutal.
Houston - 0 Top 50 wins, goodnight. Only 2 Top 100 wins and 18-0 against teams ranked 200-330. AKA -YOU SUCK.
UAB - 0 Top 50 wins, goodnight. Only 4 Top 100 wins, needed that win over Memphis.
New Mexico - 0 Top 50 wins, adios.

[CuseFan10]

Oh and FlyersFan - Your Ohio State boys are 1-8 vs the Top 50. They don't deserve to make it either, IMHO but I couldn't find anyone to replace them as of yet ya know? Like, Oregon is just flat our better than Ohio State, but they are buried in the Pac 10. Tough.

[dananderson32]

as a wake fan they need to win the rest of their home games this year, and one of the last 2 on the road, and 1 in the conf. tourny in order to get a bid IMO..........