~~ BIFF'S 1 PLAY - FEB. 28th ~~

[Biff_Tannen]

By this point of the year I am 100% over betting on TNT thursdays. Happy to see the MLB is getting underway. That means my subscription to Sports Weekly starts again this week. Highly recommend it as a great **** can reader.

I'm looking at college games tonight, only a few right now.


Michigan St. +6
Arizona -4½
N. Texas/UL-Lafayette - UNDER 138


Thoughts & comments are welcome.



--

February Starting Bankroll = $5,000

February Current Bankroll = $7,100

--


February Posted Results (16-8)

FEBRUARY 1st = SACRAMENTO KINGS +3 = WIN +$500
FEBRUARY 2nd = MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES +8 = LOSS -$550
FEBRUARY 3rd = NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -11½ = LOSS -$550
FEBRUARY 4th = MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES +6½ = WIN +$500
FEBRUARY 5th = CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -2½ = LOSS -$550
FEBRUARY 6th = NO PLAY POSTED
FEBRUARY 7th = INDIANA HOOSIERS (BB) -1½ = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 8th = ORLANDO MAGIC -PK = LOSS -$550
FEBRUARY 9th = SACRAMENTO KINGS +8 = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 10th = NO PLAY POSTED
FEBRUARY 11th = SAN DIEGO TOREROS (BB) ML -160 = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 12th = KENTUCKY WILDCATS (BB) +4½ = LOSS -$275
FEBRUARY 13th = ORLANDO MAGIC -5½ = WIN +$500
FEBRUARY 14th = PHOENIX SUNS -7 = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 15th = PENNSYLVANIA QUAKERS (BB) +4½ = LOSS -$275
FEBRUARY 16th = BYU COUGARS (BB) -6 = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 17th = UCLA BRUINS (BB) -5 = WIN +$200
FEBRUARY 18th = SAN DIEGO TOREROS (BB) +7½ = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 19th = CREIGHTON BLUE JAYS (BB) -5 = WIN +$200
FEBRUARY 20th = WISCONSIN BADGERS (BB) -1 = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 21st = RHODE ISLAND RAMS (BB) -4½ = LOSS -$275
FEBRUARY 22nd = DETROIT PISTONS -12 = WIN +$500
FEBRUARY 23rd = HORNETS/SPURS - UNDER 184 = LOSS -$275
FEBRUARY 24th = ORLANDO MAGIC -7 = WIN +$250
FEBRUARY 25th = NO PLAY POSTED
FEBRUARY 26th = PHOENIX SUNS -10 = WIN +$500
FEBRUARY 27th = UTAH JAZZ -1 = WIN +$500

[wsox08]

I really like the under, but obviously you can see I haven't done well this year so it's your call

[Quelude4u]

BIFF - GL tonight - great pick last night.. Didn't watch the game but saw the win and then the highlights on ESPN this morning - looks like it was close until MEMO (okfur) started draining threes! :)

AZ -5 albiet road team is 6-2 ATS in last 8 head=to=head... What about over 134??? OVER is 20-7 in USC last 27 in PAC-10, Over is 38-17-1 in last 56 in AZ on thur night)

MICH St +6 risky - WISC playing well lately - albiet Mich St Seniors remember last years 13 pt loss at Wisco..Mich St with 1 more day to prepare.. What About UNDER 124 with both teams doing well defensively (Wisc AVG 67off/59def to MichSt 65off/60Def) See a 58-61 game perhaps...

[Biff_Tannen]

Wsox. I like both those Unders you are on tonight.

I think I might have to hop on board the N. Texas/UL-Laff... even if it isn't my POD.


Now I'm not trying to come off arrogant, I think this board is for helping each other, **** that's why I started taking the time to post my picks. You probably know I preach only a couple bets a day. When I saw wsox's record, it reminded me of something. Early on I figured the more games I pick the better chance I have at winning. I did that until I lost $10,000 over 5 years despite hitting around 54% over that span.

I realized after losing that money that the best thing to do is track the types of wagers you make and in what situations. For example double digit home dogs vs. a ranked opponent. Then see where you do good and where you do bad. Each gambler is just like a team they bet on. They are good in certain situations and bad in others... and this usually remains constant over time. It is also the reason that teams will always be drawn towards the 50% mark ATS and O/U. Law of averages. The more bets you make the more likely you are to drift towards 50%. I'm sure you are all well aware, 50% doesn't make money. Mainly, you should track yourself because the sports books do. Don't you want to know what they know? Eventually you can turn these findings into a system and save time each day.

I eliminated the situations that I was bad in, starting making 5 or less picks each day, and I've been around 60% ever since... not to mention way more consistent. Sure I've had bad days, but since a bad day for me is 0-4, it doesn't hit my bankroll too hard. Now believe me when I say this, that with the wealth of technology these days it is proven to be easier to go 0-4 than 4-0. With that in mind, to me it makes no sense to bet a lot of games each day, in fact I try and limit myself to 1-2, but with basketball I place smaller bets and try to stay around 2-3. For each extra game you bet, the gap increases. For example the chance of going say 8-0 is way less than going 0-8. This is why the books will always make money on teasers and parlays.

I'm not claiming divine knowledge, I'm just trying to spread experiences that worked for me. I'm a libertarian, I want to help everyone bring down the man. I figure if we are going to live in a capitalist economy, I might as well get as much bang for my buck as possible, and spend the least amount of time possible getting it. So I sell real estate, which is just stupid how much I make for how little I really do... and I bet sports which is more like a hobby I get paid for, but it's an addictive hobby that takes extreme discipline. Otherwise you will be ruined by it, just like smoking, boozing, or doing drugs. So, for what it's worth... best of luck.

[Biff_Tannen]

Thanks Quelude. Stay hot brother!

[Quelude4u]

good advice - i'm on board - sign me up... i'm tired of going 2-2, 4-3, 2-5... I want BIFF's bankroll and 1-0 status each day!! :)

RIDE THE WAVE BROTHER!!!

[adriano_herrera]

Biff I register with you with the POD because I also think it is the best method of finding the money, we are going forward my brother

[Whaleydog]

GL Tonight Biff .......I like the Under on the Ntex/ULaf that total dropped about 2 1/2 pts in a short period. I love the Tahoe area. Great Snow,Casinoes and the Ponderosa...your a lucky guy

[Biff_Tannen]

Not my POD... but I'm putting $150 on the UNDER in N. Texas @ UL-Lafayette.

Line jumped to 135 on the offshore books. Luckily a call-in book I use will honor any line listed after noon eastern, if you know who to make the request to. So I got 138. I think I'm going to lay off Michigan St. tonight... which seemingly only leaves one option, I'm just doing a final look-over to make sure I'm not missing anything.

[CuseFan10]

Originally Posted by Quelude4u

good advice - i'm on board - sign me up... i'm tired of going 2-2, 4-3, 2-5... I want BIFF's bankroll and 1-0 status each day!! :)

RIDE THE WAVE BROTHER!!!

Do get both of his nuts in your mouth while you're blowing him or just the head and his shaft?

Jesus dude....

[CuseFan10]

Oh and GL tonight Biff!!!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally Posted by CuseFan10

Do get both of his nuts in your mouth while you're blowing him or just the head and his shaft?

Jesus dude....

gl biff

[Biff_Tannen]

Tonight I'm going with a televised college game for my usual half bet.

Some quick facts...

1) USC is 1-21 SU in their last 22 trips to Zona's "Bear Down". They lost at home earlier this year w/o Hackett against the Cats. I don't see this as a solid revenge spot despite both teams being better on the road.

2) USC is still without a healthy Daniel Hackett. He's trying to play tonight with a fractured back because he knows this team is slipping out of national contention. USC has Arizona, Cal, Arizona St, and Stanford remaining... an easy situation for this worn down team to go 1-3 and grab a low seed.

3) USC is 1-5 vs. top 25 teams, and despite what the rankings are, I think Arizona is closer to being in that mix than USC. Trojans just fall short against good teams.

4) A unique Buddinger trend. Over their last 10 games, Arizona is 5-1 ATS when he scores 20 or more and 1-3 ATS when he doesn’t. He hit USC for 29 in the first meeting and I think he will be fired up to go against O.J. Mayo again tonight.

I think Arizona knows they have to kick this dog while it's down. Despite putting up 81 points in both the past two games, they are still down I believe... a one man show with OJ Mayo. Arizona knows a win tonight at home is crucial as they have tough games against UCLA and Oregon to come. I'm taking the Cats to make a push past USC in the rankings and continue to put up good performances against the top Pac 10 teams.


FEBRUARY 28th = ARIZONA WILDCATS -4½

*RISKING $275 to win $250

[Underdog88]

Like this one too, GL

[CuseFan10]

Originally Posted by Biff_Tannen

Some quick facts...

2) USC is still without a healthy Daniel Hackett. He's trying to play tonight with a fractured back because he knows this team is slipping out of national contention. USC has Arizona, Cal, Arizona St, and Stanford remaining... an easy situation for this worn down team to go 1-3 and grab a low seed.

3) USC is 1-5 vs. top 25 teams, and despite what the rankings are, I think Arizona is closer to being in that mix than USC. Trojans just fall short against good teams.


I think Arizona knows they have to kick this dog while it's down.

Biff - Where are you getting these stats from?

How is USC "out of national contention" first off? They just won two in a row, have won 4 of their last 6, and 8 of their last 11. They are 17-9 overall, and apart from their opening night debacle against Mercer, every game they have lost except 1 has come against a team that was ranked. They are 8-6 in the Pac 10, the best conference in the country, and have been playing very very banged up (as you correctly noted). They are firmly in the tournament and I don't see them fitting into the "kicking a dog while it's down" category. There about 200 teams that would give anything to be in USC's position right now.

Second, USC has two wins over ranked Top 25 teams just this year alone (SIU and UCLA) so that stat is definitely not true. They also beat UCLA last year at least once, and beat a couple other ranked teams last year. In the past two years, they've knocked off many ranked teams and have generally played "up" to their competition.

GL man!!