Fade

[Stifler's Mom]

ats 10-14 (-9.60 units)
ml 2-7 (-3.70 units)
total 12-21 (-13.30 units)

Western Kentucky -5

2 units

This is my favorite fade of the day, and I also combined the Hilltoppers in a moneyline parlay with Louisville, another fave which is head and shoulders above their opponent, and I think should roll easily by double digits.

First of all, you have a #12 vs a #13 seed going at it here, yet the line opened at 5.5 points, similar to many of the matchups where much higher seeds were facing a lower one. This can't help but to throw up a red flag with me.

So looking further, I see 60% on San Diego + the points, and over 90% on San Diego ML. WTF? The books are giving away $$??

So I had to look deeper....

Western Kentucky has senior experience and leadership, something San Diego does not, without a single senior on the roster. I think in a huge and difficult spot like this one, with both teams off an "upset" (even though I don't think Western KY over Drake was much of an "upset", as I said prior to the game), Western Kentucky will be the team better prepared to play, mentally and physically, and the team more composed on the court, once the game starts.

Also, while I don't think anyone could claim that the Sun Belt is a powerful conference in any way, it's clear that the WCC SUCKED this year. SD may have won the conference tournament (on their home floor), but it was clear that St Mary's and Gonzaga were the 2 best teams in the conference. Both of which got disposed of in the first round, and not by #1 or #2 seeds, but rather by Davidson and Miami FL.

Nice job by SD upsetting Uconn, but they're gonna get hammered today, IMHO.

[homedawg]

GL Stif Happy Easter

[Stifler's Mom]

Thanks Homedog. Happy Easter to you as well

Miami FL +7.5

Public fade of the day. On just about every daily card, there's one game where a certain side is clearly the public's favorite play of the day. Today that play is Texas, with 83% siding with Texas ATS and 89% playing them on the ML. These numbers were even higher when the line opened at a mere Texas -4, with between 90 and 95% laying the points with the Longhorns.

First of all, with getting the line at +7.5, as compared to the opener of +4, I feel I'm getting superior value, with the line having moved 3.5 points in my favor from where the oddsmakers opened it.

Secondly, I just think the Big 12 is weak. A&M surprised me a bit last night (I thought UCLA would pound them), but despite that performance, I still think the conference is bad, top to bottom. Texas is clearly the head of the class, and does have some quality wins this year, but I just can't get over how piss poor I feel their conference is, and that I think 7.5 is far too many points for them to be asked to cover today.

Tennessee -4.5

I have thought all year that Butler is overrated, and they were certainly a money-burner if you played on them ATS very often (or at all, lol). I'm not sure why that changes today.

Tennessee is off a "lackluster" performance against American, while Butler blasted South Alabama by 20.

What exactly has Butler done this year though? Who have they beaten? They played exactly ONE tourney team (Drake) and LOST to them by 7 points on their home floor.

The way I see it, the Vols are head and shoulders the better team here, and will show up and beat Butler comfortably this afternoon.

Davidson +5.5

I can't help but recognize three things here....

#1. After starting the season 4-6, Davidson has not lost since Dec 21st, and in that period, has compiled 21 straight wins. Even though they didn't exactly have to navigate the 21 best teams in the country during that stretch, it tells me they're doing something right.

#2. This Davidson team has played some very tough non-conference road games this year, so this game vs Georgetown should in no way be intimidating to them. Furthermore, they lost by 4 @ UNC, 6 @ Puke, and 12 @ UCLA, a cross country trip, and "step up" in competition against one of the finest teams in the country. Not an easy task, and they did at least manage to not get blown out.

#3. This game is being played in the state of North Carolina, which is Davidson's home state. Something is to be said for teams playing in their home state in the NCAA tourney, as, even though I cannot recall exact numbers or what source I got the info from in the past, I do remember that they have excellent numbers both ATS and SU.

Bottom line is that I don't think Davidson is as outmatched here as most might think, nor do I think they're just overwhelmed by playing against a #2 seed, or just "happy to be in the second round". Clearly, they have made an effort to schedule good non-conference competition to make themselves better for situations just like this one....unlike some teams who just schedule non-conference garbage to pad their records.

With the added edge of playing in front of what very well may be a supportive crowd just about 2 and a half hours from their campus, I think Davidson has a strong chance to hang with, and possibly upset, Georgetown today.

2 units each

Miami FL ml +280
Davidson ml +195

1 unit each

[naught33]

gl today man, wky is a good play imo they should win today, esp if they can up the tempo...kind of curious on the total there, wky likes to run and gun, and their d is so so, but yet the total is only slightly higher then the uconn/sd total where both teams like to play d hmm...

as for butler/tenn...tenn might win, but i think this will be a great game, butler did beat tenn last yr if i recall...and while obv tenn has played the stiffer competition this yr, butler has played some decent teams (fla st, ohio st, va tech, texas tech, valpo, bradley, etc)...i think itll be a battle of the 3 ball, whichever team can knock em down wins the game

[Stifler's Mom]

I'm not real good at totals, lol. I played the under in the Purdue/X game yesterday, thinking it was fishy being set WAYYYY too low at 127.5 (open) and still low at 133 (where i got it), and the public hammering the over at way over 80%. The thing went WAY over though, and never had a prayer of coming under the 133, with both teams running the floor and throwing up shots like a Phoenix Suns scrimmage game at practice.

I see the exact same thing here on this game. Total looks too low at 130 (open) and still too low at 134.5 (current). Seems to me that it should be at least in the 140's. Public is on the over at 88%. I would lean towards siding with the books and the oddsmakers on the under, but capping totals really isn't my specialty, and i sorta feel "once bitten, twice shy", after what I saw yesterday in a similar situation, and then the game being played at a frenzied pace with the under never having a chance from the opening buzzer.

[Stifler's Mom]

Parlay of Western Kentucky -240/Louisville -370 (-125)

and

Louisville -7.5

I think Oklahoma is very very average, and that Louisville is by far the better team.

Congrats to the Sooners for playing a great game against St Joes. They put up stats above season average in pretty much every offensive category in that one, but they physically outmatched the Hawks. That is not the case today.

The Sooners are not a good shooting or scoring team when defended well, and that is something Louisville can and will do today.

I don't think this game is even going to be close.

Mississippi St +9 (-105)

Without sounding too much like an ESPN analyst (hopefully, lol), I think that the lack of Memphis to be able to make their free throws is going to be their undoing.

Furthermore, Memphis isn't the world's best team at shooting the long ball either.

I think Miss St will force them to either take jump shots, and/or be physical inside, sending the Memphis bigs to the foul line and forcing them to make free throws instead of layups/dunks.

I know all of this is easier said than done, but if Miss St keeps the game competitive, I don't much fear a backdoor fave cover from fouling when that fave shoots about 60% as a team from the foul line.

So, anything less than a Memphis domination seems to put the odds of a cover and possibly SU win in my favor here.

North Carolina -11

I know, I got a bad line here. I got it early, thinking it would go up, but it has actually gone the other way. Hopefully it doesn't come into play.

Anyway, my thinking on this one is simple. I think UNC outmatches the Razorbacks by quite a bit on a neutral court.

This game, though, really isn't on a neutral court....even though it technically is.

Back to the "teams playing in their home state" thing again, this game is being played approx just 30 mins from UNC's campus in Raleigh, NC. Bring on the home crowd.

I also found this bit of worthless info: North Carolina is 22-1 in NCAA Tournament games played in its home state, including a 6-1 record in Raleigh.

On the other hand, Arkansas has not done a whole lot worth mentioning on the road this year, other than a 1 pt win at Tennessee.

I just feel like the double digit points are looking for Arkansas action, and if the books thought Arkansas had a legit shot of competing tonight, the line would be more in the +6 to +9 range.

2 units each

Mississippi St ml +380

1 unit

[homedawg]

damm stif, look at you go. all kinds of time for writeups on easter. hmmm are you avoiding the outlaws?

[homedawg]

PFOTD

[emv01]

Nice hit on the Davidson ML

[Stifler's Mom]

Thanks guys

And before someone points out my stupidity....YES, I DO REALIZE (now) that KANSAS is in the Big 12. I had TOTALLY forgotten them when I was doing my writeups today and said Texas was the class of the Big 12. Duh

I still think the Big 12 is weak though....that statement doesn't change

I also didn't realize it was 23 in a row for Davidson (now 24). I guess 4-6 to 27-6 somehow added up to 21 to me this morning when i was capping the games

Can't remember the last time I picked up 16 units in one day in NCAAB though....well 15.95 units to be technical about it, lol. Something doesn't feel right here. I didn't get screwed even once today, and actually I got real lucky with Tennessee covering in OT (even though they did lead like the whole game), and Miami FL making the big comeback to cover as well

[Underdog88]

Wow, just perfectly capped Stif.. a little luck with Tenn in ot, but spot on

[Daws1089]

you deserved a day like this

[GoBigorGoHome]

nicely done stif