Wednesday Discussion

[FlyersFan]

There just flat out is not enough discussion on this site. Merely posting plays is worthless. I did want to say thanks to those that tossed in their thoughts on the PSU game yesterday. Got an OVER winner out of it i wouldn't have had and i opted for OSU ML over a losing PSU + play that i was leaning towards.

Wanted to get some thoughts on a couple of games today and feel free to add others to the mix.

There are some good minds on this site that are wasted because of the complete lack of discussion. Cusefan, W2 et al. always have good thoughts and it would be nice to see more of those in terms of opinions.... (even though W2 thinks im a bragodocious know it all...)

My 2 strongest plays:

Auburn Over143..........All 6 SEC home games have soared over this number. Auburn seems to like to play Tennessee style at home in terms of run and gun and no D. Very similar it seems to the Over140 i played the other night with Auburn and LSU.

Evansville -3 over Bradley. This game is really big for Evansville IMO. They are trying to avoid playing on day 1 of the MVC tourney and a win here would assure themselves of probably a first round 4/5 matchup with these same Braves of Bradley. Especially since they finish at UNI, a game they probably won't win. Just lost by 7 at Bradley but the game was closer than that. A loss here almost assuredly puts them in the 7-10 seed day one bracket where it is almost impossible to win these tourneys playing 4 games in 4 days. 3 in 3 is hard enough.

what are anyone's thoughts on the UTAH -5 over UNLV? I would like to play Utah here but they barely beat BYU and UNM at home and struggled with UNLV in the desert earlier in confernece play. UNLV ihas been tough on the road in conference, though, losing by 9, 4, 2 and 7 and then winning at BYU and AFA. Anyone see a reason not to play the Utes? Something tells me UNLV gets a tuneup here ala Wyoming last week.


also am on the fence on KSU@Mizzou. Mizzou with payback on their mind, but they also have KU looming on Sunday. Line is Mizzou -9. Mizzou undefeated at home this year and with an average MOV of 21.5 points over KU, TacoTech, Nebraska, Baylor, ISU and Colorado....which isn't exactly murderers row. KSU has won 4 straight big12 road games also. Leaning KSU here grabbing almost DD in a look ahead for Mizzou. Anyone have a thought on this?

would like to hear some reasoning on any other plays that people think are worthy. just posting your plays in your thread and a number next to a name is worthless, IMO. And it's hard to get every angle on days like Wed and Saturday where there are so many games. Jump in with some discussion today people...

[FlyersFan]

hey JoePa (and anyone else who may have a thought and follow these teams):


I am really leaning to making a 3-4 Unit play on NILL tonight versus WMU. NILL beat Akron at home and only lost to Kent State by 3, both of which are far and away better teams than WMU. They also pasted Eastern and Toledo by 20+ at home, who i would put at just a notch below WMU. WMU has gotten the ever living crap beaten out of them on the road in the MAC......18 at Miami(oh), 24 at Akron, 9 at BGSU, 6 at Ball State and they did manage an 8 point win over the Vaunted Purple Suits of EMU. My only worry is that WMU is playing for the MACrap West title and a first round MAC bye. This game has really no meaning at all for NILL. WMU has 2 winnable games at home over Ball State and CMU left and then a roadie with the Vaunted Toledo fighting area factory closures. But WMU is 2-5 in their L7 MAC games and one of those was a home win over the Purple Suits.

thoughts?

[joepa66]

Flyer.....probably backing NIU myself along with CMU tonight! Although NIU is 3-9 in MAC play their stats don't bear out their record.

The Huskies are 3rd in scoring offense and WMU is 9th; they are 5th in FG% at 43% while WMU is 12th at 39%; they are 5th in 3pt. FG% and WMU is 10th; and the Huskies are an excellent offensive rebounding team and are 4th in MAC play while WMU is 7th. NIU is also 4-1 ATS @ home vs. WMU, and in recent form they pushed Kent (winner of 8 straight) to OT before losing 86-83, beat Akron 83-79, and pummeled SE Missouri State 97-73 hitting 13 3s in that game. WMU is coming off a road loss at Eastern Illinois where they shot 30% and are losers in 3 of their last 5 games beating only EMU and Ohio in Kalamazoo!

[Jerbeek]

Not much to discuss on my picks Flyers, I run some numbers and come up with a predicted score. As for the 2 games you listed my numbers show:

Miss. State 67
Auburn 77

Bradley 62
Evansville 69

Both of these were plays for me. Good luck!

[Jerbeek]

Also, I show N. Illinois winning 68-66.

[Daws1089]

I know its ****ty bet to make long term, but MD is in a bad spot tonight after taking down UNC. I guess its better for them that they are at home, but Duke is playing some good ballwith the new line up. I just don't know if MD has the players to play 2 great games back to back.

[Daws1089]

Duke is -6 at MD by the way


Also, MARQ has two big home games this week. I have to think they win atleast one of them. UCONN tonight and I think LOU later this week.

[Daws1089]

ND doesnt play a lick of defense and RUT has been able to put up some solid points on the road lately. I think the over 145 is worth a try here. If ND is hitting shots they will score 80 or more. Plus I like the pace of this game to be rather quick. No reason for RUT or ND to really buckle down on D as they don't have big dance hopes.

[Daws1089]

I guess the contributions stop once I start posting? Anyway, I really like your reasoning for Evansville FF, but I'm not laying -4 and I don't buy numbers so thats outt he window. I am really wondering why NW is -3.5 on the road? They rearely play well ouotside their place. I know its IU, but its hard to win on the road in the big 10, and even harder when you are a crappy team like NW (sorry craig moore). Line is ocming down too which makes me think IU is the right side.

Also, the O/U in the Northeastern/Drexel game is at 119.5. I don't think they can set this total low enough. Neither of these teams want to run and both play astounding defense. NE offense is almost painful sometimes with the patience they have. I like the under.

[FlyersFan]

daws- looking at your play on the over in the ND game....

I really like ECU today and made a play on them. Marshall is a bad road team and only beat ECU by 8 at home earlier in the year. I think that is probably as solid as any today.

With respect to Evansville, it opened 3 and is up to 4. They have lost 7 straight to Bradley and 2 in a row at home. But EVAN is 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS at home versus Bradley L11. And this spot really favors Evansville, especially on Senior night with a bunch of seniors on the team. And they need this one badly. I think they win by 5+ so i would still lay the 4.

I am not playing Duke on the road. I had them versus WFU on the ML and that was a roller coaster ride. No way can you play a team and lay 6-7+ on the road when the team laying the chalk plays no defense.