Nigel's Thanksgiving Hoops Pick

[Nigel Tufnel]

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone here....I hope everyone has a safe, relaxing wonderful day.

YTD: 1-1

I'm sure today's pick will be a shock to most....

Xavier -5.5 -- 3 units

OK, I'll admit that X hasn't played anyone this year. They pummeled Youngstown State, Bowling Green and Sacred Heart....but they looked pretty damn good doing it. Marquette has taken the same route....beating up on Centenary, MD Eastern Shore, Grambling State and South Dakota.

Both teams are supposed to be having rebuilding years this year. However, I'm not sure that's the case with X. They lost CJ Anderson, BJ Raymond, Derrick Brown and Sean Miller....but they return Dante Jackson, Jason Love, Jamel McLean, Terrell Holloway, Kenny Frease and Brad Redford. Throw in redshirt freshman Mark Lyons and Jordan Crawford and Xavier all of a sudden has a pretty athletic and deep team. Chris Mack has decided to release the hounds this year....X, with their athletic guards, has decided to get up and down the floor.

While Marquette has a nice combo with Jimmy Butler and Lazar Hayward, I see the difference in this game being decided in the paint. Marquette lost their starting center, Chris Otule, for the year earlier this week. This leaves Marquette with one player over 6'7" on their roster...that's 7'2" freshman center Mbao, who averages .5 ppg. I think Xavier's size and experience in the paint with Love, Frease and McLean will really make the difference today. If Marquette decides they want to sag and double, X has the guard play to make them pay, with Crawford, Holloway, Redford and Jackson shooting from outside.

And last, but not least, X finally has a "go to guy." In year's past, X has never really had a guy who could create his own shot and take his defender one on one. If X needs a bucket, Crawford is the man. I've really been impressed with his ability to spot up, take his man off the dribble and post up on smaller guards.

At this point in the early season, I think X's size and experience leads them to a cover. I'd like to think X can win today by DDs.

X 82 Marq 70

GL!!

[joepa66]

Love the pick too X-Man.......GL and enjoy Thanksgiving!

[TheBeholdah]

with you on this one nigel! just saw this thread would have been nervous if u were fading the X Men, i know you watch them alot. happy thanksgiving man!

[Nigel Tufnel]

In for a penny.....

Pretty surprised the line has dropped to 5....I don't know if that's Big East bias coming into play or what....still not worried though...like I said, I think X wins by DD.

Xavier -2.5 1st Half -- 2 units

This logic could be completely warped, but I'm going with it. I think X has a better chance of adjusting to a higher level of competition in Marquette than Marquette will have adjusting to X. I also think X has a better chance of coming out of the gate well....why? Because these players got significant minutes last year in Xavier's preseason run to the Puerto Rican Tourney Championship...Holloway, Jackson, Love, McLean, Frease and Redford....they are familiar with the neutral court preseason tourneys...I think that will help coming out of the gate.

I look for Love to have a monster game today. He is a cagey senior who has gotten much better each year...he has lost weight from last year and picked up some speed. He'll be the biggest guy on the Court today the majority of the time except when Frease is in. Lots of trips to the line for Love and lots of rebounds. If Marquette brings in their 7'2" freshman, I am very confident Love will have him foul trouble within a matter of minutes...then, Marquette has nobody on their roster bigger and/or taller than Love.

GL!!

Edit: I don't use bodog, but I saw the prop on Crawford is over 17 points....I think Crawford gets at least 20 today.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Ouch, that sucked.

YTD: 1-3 -- - 5 units.

That game was absolutely brutal...I can't remember being so angry watching an X game...the 5 unit loss didn't help, but it was just dreadful. X has 69 field goal attempts, outrebounds Marquette by 17 and still loses? I said Love would have a big game...well, he went for 21 and 19....and guess how many times they got the ball to him on the block? Twice...******* twice. That's just bad coaching and execution right there.

And what's more asinine is that I might take them today against Creighton...God knows they can't play any worse...I can't remember seeing a team miss more shots inside of 5 feet in my life...problem was, Love wasn't taking the shots...he went 9-11 from the field and 3-3 from the line...God forbid you decide to adjust and run your offense through him.