Saturday Discussion

[FlyersFan]

Rainy day in the office and killing some time around lunch. Thought i would toss this out.

Anyone have any upset specials for tomorrow?? Lines aren't out yet but should be in about 2+ hours.

NWU over ILL..........NWU should have beaten them earlier in the year IMO and gave one away last year as well at home to ILL. NWU has a very legitimate chance to make the tournament and end it's distinction as the ONLY big6 conference team NEVER to make the NCAA tournament (if you can believe that). This game is paramount for them and ILL to me is the most overrated team in the big10. I expect the line to be around PK to -1 or -2....like NWU at home SU actually. Thoughts?

UGA over TENN............the TENN machine is going to drop one eventually and i think this one might be the one. UGA has been VERY competitive against some of the better teams in the league so far and at home I think they can spring the upset. Tough to see TENN go TO Alabama and UGA and win in successive games in a week. And remember, Bruce Pearl is still the coach.

MIN over MSU...........not sure what the line will be and i'm actually guessing it will be right around PK to MIN as a small favorite. MSU is undefeated in conference but really hasn't been very impressive IMO and they have periods where they struggle to score. MIN has been very effective at home and with their full court press turning teams over. Tough to win on the road in the big10 and i like MIN today. Not sure if it is an upset line wise (if so a very small one) but standings wise it is.

OSU over WVU..........payback time here again for OSU. Playing some of the best basketball in the country the past couple of weeks and i will take what i expect to be a small number on the road with them (probably around +2 to +3).


Somebody's gonna open up a can games:

PUR over michigan............hasn't played 2 good halves of hoops in quite a while and something tells me they do it today. Put 1 good half together vs. Illinois and 1 vs. OSU but a complete effort should result in a 15-20 point blowout today. UM coming off of a tough and physical road game at Wisky. If PUR can carryover from the Illinois game this one gets ugly IMO.

VANDY over AUBURN............unless the 3 balls are falling all day long for AUB i don't think this one is close. VANDY playing some lights out hoops since xmas and AUB has nobody inside and should get manhandled in there.

ASU over UAZ...............i think UAZ is really going to struggle to score in this one and ASU should get more than their share to make this one a blowout. UAZ once owned this series but not anymore. Looking for something in the area of 64-47 or thereabouts.


There are several games in the MAC that i just see getting ugly fast, but will have to see what the lines are

[Underdog88]

Minny and NW both on my radar as well. I would have to see the line for UGA first, IMO if it's really high it may be a tipoff. Looks to be a close one to me though.


WKy over Mid Tenn St- Solid home team with quick revenge of b2b road losses in conference play. Also the second game of b2b roadie for Mid Tenn, think the home team gets it done there. Should be a low line.....


Looking to see some lines on Uconn & Virginia, imo both could have value.....

[TheBeholdah]

just posted a bunch of stuff on games in other thread, didnt see this thread

[Underdog88]

One thing I will say FF is that Minny never beats MSU, which scares me.


Was on UTEP @Memphis, but I think they are in for a letdown @UCF tomorrow. UCF ML should get +130 or so out of it, hopefully...

[TheBeholdah]

i think the over is a solid play in the vandy game as well unless auburn cant break 70, agree that vandy will score at will

may join you on the georgia, i cant get figure that team out tho. good spot for tennessee to take a L on the road but im afraid georgia will prove to be like arkansas.

[TheBeholdah]

and Purdue hopefully that isnt higher than 11, but dont think itll really matter

I dont see how iowa st will be able to hang with kansas there, but the line may reflect that

Alabama vs. mississippi st= miss st nearly dropping home games to ark and uga back to back now early road game at bama. good spot for bama but they are a terrible shooting team, dont think im going to back them here but its hard to have confidence in miss state right now

MARYLAND vs. nc st= maryland's playing their best ball of the season right now, nc st coming off the duke upset

[TheBeholdah]

Paul George, leading scorer for fresno st, hurt his ankle early last game vs. utah st and they proceeded to score only 43 points. he's listed as doubtful for the home game vs nevada.

[TheBeholdah]

the vegasinsider.com lines are out.... if texas is really a pickem that is damn tempting. can anyone convince me uconn has 50/50 shot to win?

[FlyersFan]

Openers rolling out as we speak...first lines coming.

MIN -1 1/2
KENTST -2 1/2
WKY -7 1/2
VAN -14 1/2 & 154
NESTN -4
WVU -5 1/2
PUR -10 1/2
TEN -6
DEN -7
NWU -1 1/2
ASU -11

[FlyersFan]

hit both the MIN and NWU lines pretty much spot on. Can't believe that WVU is -5 1/2 at home to OSU. I had that game as WVU -2 to -3.

Also surprised to see how little love the oddsmakers game UGA installing them as a 6 point dog at home to TENN.

some lines higher than i wanted but i think that also tells you what the right side is at least in the oddsmaker's mind. WKU -7 1/2, DEN -7 and NESTN -4.

Surprised to see KENST open -2 1/2.

ASU line is a fair line and i fully expect them to cover that one.

[joepa66]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

hit both the MIN and NWU lines pretty much spot on.........

Surprised to see KENST open -2 1/2.

I think you ought to wager on what you think the opening lines are going to be.......


Kent/Akron huge game every year and the home teams are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 in the series.....the only non-covers were in 2007 when Kent was a -1.5 fav and lost SU 66-64, and in 2008 when UA was a -3 favorite and lost SU 61-58!

[TheBeholdah]

definately thought denver would be more like -4. may still the lay the extra couple points there

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by joepa66

I think you ought to wager on what you think the opening lines are going to be.......


Kent/Akron huge game every year and the home teams are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 in the series.....the only non-covers were in 2007 when Kent was a -1.5 fav and lost SU 66-64, and in 2008 when UA was a -3 favorite and lost SU 61-58!

lol...you pretty much get a feel for where a line is going to be if you're paying attention. i have never "made my own numbers" so to speak but within a point or so you can usually figure them out. I was surprised to see the lack of love for OSU on the road. We'll see where that line moves to. have a feeling it will come down so probably going to grab some OSU today.

and honestly, though, JoePa...KENTST has had a lot better teams in the past than they have this year. I really don't think a whole ton of their team. I think the AKR blowout loss to Buffalo on the road changed what probably would have been around a PK a week or so ago IMO.

on a side note, BUF lost their QB who is leaving.....bummer for anndanderson

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by TheBeholdah

definately thought denver would be more like -4. may still the lay the extra couple points there

just like the NWU/OSU line from earlier in the week....was 11 1/2 and i was thinking more like 8-9....ended up being a complete dismantling and an easy cover. DEN is a really good team and a really good home team as you said. Their program has improved over the last 5 years by leaps and bounds IMO.

[FlyersFan]

Some news out of Minn-eee-soda



MINNEAPOLIS (AP)—Minnesota guard Al Nolen will not play Saturday against Michigan State because of academic issues.

Gophers coach Tubby Smith says the junior is appealing the suspension but is unsure whether he will be available the rest of the season. Nolen is averaging 6.7 points and 4.6 assists, and is considered one of the best defenders in the Big Ten.

Smith said Friday that Devoe Joseph will take Nolen’s place in the starting lineup.

It’s only the latest distraction for the Gophers, who have been without forwards Trevor Mbakwe and Royce White all season because of legal issues. White returned to practice this week.