Saturday Discussion

[FlyersFan]

only Thursday night and obviously no lines out but curious to hear some thoughts on a couple of games:

VANDY@UKY ............VANDY with road wins at SCarolina and Tennessee in thelast week+ and UKY off a pretty predictable loss at SCAR or at least a predictablly tough game. I personally think VANDY is the best team in the SEC and has played just lights out since after Xmas. Part of me looks for a bounce back effort but i kind of see KY a little bit like i did Texas a couple weeks ago. They have really struggled at times and i think have been fortunate to even by where they are record wise. VANDY on the other hand has every bit the size and perimeter game to take down UKY. Anyone have a definitive thought on this game either way. I would expect a very tight line of something like UKY -3 or so. I can't see the oddsmaker making the line too much higher unless it's one of those "strange lines" which would say play Kentucky....much like the Florida/Georgia line last night.

OKST@MIZZOU ....really big game in the big12 and my question is, was the win at Kansas State last weekend a fluke off of the Texas win or can OKST go into MIZZOU and pick up a win? OKST lost in OT at Oklahoma and beat KState on the road. Lost to Baylor by DD in a game that got away from them. I would expect a line of around MIZZOU -4/-5 maybe? Interesting game.

KU@KST .......KST already knocked off Texas at home....can they do it versus KU? Another line i expect to be really close to PK. This should be a very good game.

will toss in a few when the lines come out but would like to hear some thoughts on those.

[Nicky Santoro]

I'm really interested in that KU@KSU game as well but, before I get to that I don't like this spot for UCONN playing host to Marquette. Both teams really struggling especially on the road The Eagles losing their last four roadies by a total of 9 points. Losing in the closing seconds. They are playing well but I list them in the "struggling" category because they can't keep it together in crunch time. The Huskies have become totally unreliable from a betting perspective, except when playing at home. They've won 5 of 6 at home covering each ATS. Losing to the Fryars on the road making it four straight defeats on the road. I don't see this spread going over 3. Everything points to UCONN but, I find that if the Huskies are giving more than that I'll be all over Marquette. I just can't see them going 0-6 on the road. I'd even take 'em SU. I believe they cap it close, they lose by 1 to DePaul but take Villanova to the end losing by 5. I think the line should be around 3 or tops 4 and I like the Golden Eagles.

By far one of the toughest road games for the Jayhawks, I'm with you FF, this may be a pick 'em game. I'd even lay a couple of points with the Cats. I like to look at trends when picking games except this one, throw them all out this will be the best game of the night IMO. Kansas leads in all categories over KSU but, that home crowd will be a factor and the cappers know it too. I figure KSU will be laying a couple here at the most and I'd give it as well. KSU is 6-1 ATS at home and the Jayhawks are 3-3-1 ATS away. Kansas St. -1 or -2, no more than that and it's a play for me.

[TheBeholdah]

something i've noticed watching kansas st the last couple games is that they're very reliant on their outside jumpers, they were making them vs baylor and bricking them vs okla st. udoh and lace dunn were a combined 5 for 23 from the field for baylor and they still only lost in the final seconds despite k st's hot shooting. k st is alaso pretty sloppy with the ball. tough to fade them at home tho.

I expect the mizzou line to be -6 at the lowest, and i have a very hard time believing okla st will win another tough road game.

as for the kentucky game, i really like this vandy team and ive picked my spots backing them well this year, although i missed out on backing them alot as well. I cant see this line only being -3 flyers, will be -5 or more imo. but im going to lay off this game. that game at south carolina was pathetic and i agree they could be going thru what texas is going thru right now.

Georgia at south carolina

I originally really liked georgia in this let down spot for south carolina, but georgia was so sloppy with the ball at florida and really struggled with the defensive pressure. i'll have to be catching 7 or more points at least to back georgia.

Georgetown vs. duke= Gtown or no play for me here. I think the hoyas match up much better with duke than they did with cuse and i tihnk monroe will have a big game. The duke from the nc state game is certainly capable of showing up on the road again, but fading them is a scary proposition.

Arkansas St vs. denver= denver again proved they suck on the road last night by losing to the previously 1-8 in conference arkansas little rock team. ark st is solid 7-2 in conference and is a revenge game. this conference blows tho

I tihnk piss will blow out arkansas but that line will be pretty high

all in all this is a pretty tough saturday slate, i need some damn winners so lets keep this discussion going and win some money

[FlyersFan]

I really struggle with Saturdays because of the amount of games, but usually the more i look through them the more i find some stuff like last saturday.

Lines should be out in about 3-4 hours.

Some big games sunday too with Minnesota traveling to OSU in a revenge game for OSU at home. Maryland takes their 5-1 ACC lead into Clemson.....Arizona hosts Cal for 1st place in the ****ty pac10.....

[Woody12]

Grabbed these lines as they were released at The Greek.

My top 3 of the whole big board....2 unit plays on these

Northern Iowa -1 over Mizzu State...Good team with a short number.

Dayton -4 over St.Bonny...Bounce back for Dayton here to get back on track.

K-State +3 over Kansas...I will take all the points they will give me here as I think State wins SU.



Others....

UMass +3 over Charlotte...Bit of a let-down for Charlotte as they hit the road.

Missy State -13 over LSU

Georgia +4 (1st Half) over South Carolina...let down for a bit for the Cocks.

Iowa State -6 over Colorado...Need all the home wins they can get, and beat CU already.

Baylor +9 over Texas...Close one I thinnk.


3-teamer ML parlay (all pk)

Mizzou
Arizona State
Kentucky

[Daws1089]

loving that Umass play. Charlotte is very beatable. They had the same problem last year after beating Xavier I believe.

[FlyersFan]

Im honestly shocked that VANDY is a freeking 8 point dog at KY. They are the best team IMO in the SEC and what has KY done to warrant an 8 point line? They beat UGA and LOU at home by 8 and 9 points and neither of those teams can hold VANDY's jock IMO. But then again, that has me looking at KY because that line is screaming play VANDY.

Also FYI:

OlePiss/Arkansas postponed due to weather and OKST and OU are stuck in Oklahoma right now as the OKCity airport is closed. I think somebody just hung a big closed sign on the whole redneck state and went home.......

[TheBeholdah]

SMU is looking like a solid home dog, theyve played decently lately and i dont think memphis has played well enough on the road to lay this many points. take out the 12 point win over rice (0-6) and theyve beaten marshall by 3, southern miss by 2, lost to umass. i dont see them shooting as well from the stripe as they did last game at marshall either

[TheBeholdah]

see mizzou is up to 7 already, i heard there is some pretty nasty weather in the area and it affected okla st's travel.

[FlyersFan]

Wanted to post what IMO are the most solid ML teams to use in ML parlays for Saturday. I may have a different set of standards so those probably reflect some teams that are left out. I have been doing very well with these and i changed 1 thing up from previous years and my winnings have gone up substanially. NO ****ball teams in any of these. No Northeasterns, or WKY's or Troys or Elons.....sticking to the main conferences (plus A-10 and some solid MAC squads) and home teams. As an example i played this and hit with it on Thursday....BUT had Buffalo in there as well at home versus Ball State. Would have taken it to +330 instead of +251. Erased them at the last minute as i felt they fit the ****ball mode and low and behold they lost as a 10 point favorite.....lol....which would have killed the ticket. So tempting to look at some of these teams i would call "unreliable" and think they "should win"...but they don't and i got tired of them ruining my cards last year at times so off they went in the ****ter pile...lol



01/28 06:56 PM 119912127- 1 5 team Parlay Won $100.00 $251.77 Basketball NCAA - Pittsburgh -400 for Game (Won)
Basketball NCAA - Purdue -500 for Game (Won)
Basketball NCAA - Miami Ohio -300 for Game (Won)
Basketball NCAA - Arizona -260 for Game (Won)
Basketball NCAA - San Jose State -370 for Game (Won)


If anyone can come up with any others post them here that fit the mold.... There are only about 2 million games and i tend to overlook some, and some look better on Saturday than they do on Friday. Here is what i have:

MIA(oh) -420........really expect them to beat EMU who is winless in conference in the road and hasn't come closer than 9 points. MIA(oh) a solid conference home team

KY -380.......line is going up and i was all over VANDY until i saw the line and the movement. makes me think KY is a solid play at home. VANDY is due for a road loss with wins already at Tennessee on Wednesday and Scarolina last weekend i believe. Plus they are in first.

ASU -600...........STAN is pathetic on the road and ASU should stifle that 2 man show....ASU was really playing well and needs this win badly.

ILLST -340.........been taking care of business at home with wins already over Creighton, Wichy Woman and SILL (lost to UNI). BRAD is really not a very good team IMO.

MIZZOU -300...........MIZZOU with great ATS and SU numbers at home. OKST just beat KState on the road last Saturday and has Texas at home on Monday. Plus weather related travel issues for OKST.

DRK -120...........DRK has been playing great ball about the last 2+ weeks and i think will get it done at home today. Probably the weakest of the plays but great value in terms of boosting the payback if they hit.

UGA +4 1H........the only 1 that doesn't fit the mold but i like it anyway. SCAR coming off the huge win and Devin Downey will take his 400 shots and hit 4 of them but manage to score 30 points in the process, but UGA coming off a really bad performance at Florida and has given teams better than SCAR lots of trouble on the road.

I also don't include much of anything over about -500 as that becomes low return in terms of adding it to the card.

[FlyersFan]

My top 3-4 above are MIA(oh), ILLST, MIZZOU and KY.....ASU should win but not a whole lot of + value with that -600......DRK and UGA will probably be regular plays for me and i may or may not use them.

ILLST, MIZZOU, KY and MIA(oh) pay +270.

[Nicky Santoro]

Marquette getting 6 and KSU getting 3 at home are 2 plays I'm looking forward to.

[BUNK MORELAND]

Portland -6 without their leading score NIK RAIVIO ??????


Santa Clara looked like a real tough place to play the other night. just not crazy about taking a team who had GONZAGA beat for 35 minutes and gave it away in the last 5. Gotta question a team's pschy after that


I like Marist getting 18 at home vs Siena ...

Marist is god awful bad. Only has one win

but 18 at home

Franklin and Rubeles questionable for Siena ..

I don't see them playing much ...I look for Siena to jump out early and get a lead and then rest the starters... They have two big games coming up against JOEPA's Iona Gaels and fairfield

Metro Standings
1. Siena
2. Iona
3. Fairfield

[joepa66]

Originally Posted by BUNK MORELAND

.........Franklin and Rubeles questionable for Siena ..
I don't see them playing much ...I look for Siena to jump out early and get a lead and then rest the starters... They have two big games coming up against JOEPA's Iona Gaels and fairfield

Metro Standings
1. Siena
2. Iona
3. Fairfield

You'd better quick picking on my Gaels.....everybody's going to figure out their real name is the I-OWN-A ATS this year!

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

My top 3-4 above are MIA(oh), ILLST, MIZZOU and KY.....ASU should win but not a whole lot of + value with that -600......DRK and UGA will probably be regular plays for me and i may or may not use them.

ILLST, MIZZOU, KY and MIA(oh) pay +270.

Agree with most but I'm not going to bet against Vandy, even on the ML. I've been getting in trouble playing lines that "are high for a reason". IMO Vandy covers and could win (I won't bet on that).....