Tuesday discussion

[TheBeholdah]

wanted to start this early, some interesting matchups

something ive noticed, bookmaker is by far the best book to use for totals, if you bet a decent amount of totals make bookmaker your main book. they get the lines out around 5:30 every day and the totals move extremely fast. nova went from 163 to 166, kentucky from 157.5 to 153.5 in a matter of minutes.

Villanova vs. Seton Hall: Over

This is around the same high number they put on the nova-notre dame game (166 range)
That game landed a couple points shy of the over because nd couldnt keep up and it turned into a blowout. The Hall is much more athletic than notre dame has a much greater chance of keeping the game competitive. both play fast and will foul alot. good chance to get the late game fouling here. there's not a lot of wriggle room with these high totals, but this is an over matchup if ive ever seen one.

Wake vs. Mia Fla

Revenge game for wake here, mia finally played a solid game last time out at home vs. v tech, but each of their last 3 road games have been blowouts.


NorthWestern vs. michigan= i thought northwestern would be laying at least 4 here but only at -1.5. kind of surprising considering michigan's road woes and the fact that northwestern already beat them in michigan

[TheBeholdah]

i just took nova over 165 for a unit and may add to it later, looking further into it now.

[BoilerBacker]

Thinking about Seton Hall. Villanova has Georgetown on Saturday....I think Villa wins but it may be closer than people think.

They have only lost one game by DD and that was by 12 at Georgetown.

[TheBeholdah]

i agree boiler, i think the hall keeps it interesting, which bodes well for the over. i mite grab those points

[FlyersFan]

I think that the spot for WIS at home over MSU is probably one of the best that you will find this year. MSU is going to lose a game at some point in conference and they have played Iowa x 2, Minnesota x 2 (last time without Minn PG), NWU x 2, Illinois....they have yet to play either Purdue or Ohio State and have by far played the weakest schedule in the big10 so far. Wisky is more than capable of winning this game and it isn't like MSU has been hugely impressive. MSU has also really struggled in 1H of games and Wisky 1H might be worth a look. They trailed at the half @Michigan, @Minnesota recently. WIS -1 is the line.

Also really liking NWU -1 at home versus Michigan.

[TheBeholdah]

wisconsin at this price is pretty much an auto play, just a little worried they wont score enough, but great point about how the spartans havent played anyone yet. they havent exactly been dominant against the weaker teams either.

any thoughts on why northwestern isnt laying at least 4? that line is shocking to me

[joepa66]

Nova vs. Hall is a great matchup for the first of the week! Gonna be a tough road ahead for The Hall with back-to-back roadies at Nova and Pitt. Nova on the other hand has two roadies as well at G-town and WVU! This is definitely not a look ahead game for The Hall, but Nova does have that game with the Hoyas who are looking for revenge. I think this game may be closer than expected with lot's of scoring and the definitely in the 160s.

Nova is 8-0 SU in conference play and 10-0 overall at home in their last 10. They're also 7-1ATS vs. conference and 9-1ATS overall, averaging 86ppg while allowing opponents 74ppg in the Cats den.

[joepa66]

Miami @ Wake -8

The Canes played a great game at home against VATech over the weekend coming away with the win 7 point win and shooting 63% from the field for the game. Oh yeah, that was a HOME game! Beholdah, already told ya, they suck on the road and are 0-4SU and 2 - 3ATS in conference roadies. The got bombed by 22 @ Maryland shooting 38%, lost by 18 @ UVA shooting 31%, and lost by 15 @ VATech shooting 34%. Miami's road averages are 66ppg (ranks them 158th) on offense and 74ppg on defense. They also rank an abysmal 205th in road rebounding with 33 per game.
Wake lost by 1 pt. at Miami,FL 3 weeks ago, and they're 4-1ATS in their last 5 games with the Canes. The Deacs 3-0 SU at home vs. the ACC and 5-0SU in their last 5 games. Big revenge spot for WF who averages 75ppg at home, and 46 rebounds as the 2nd best rebounding team in the ACC with 43 per game.

[BoilerBacker]

Wis will be a play for me. No doubt about it.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by BoilerBacker

Wis will be a play for me. No doubt about it.

.....revenge spot at home and MSU (hate the word due but....) is due to lose one of these games on the road in the big10. Trailed at half of both @michigan and @minnesota and pulled 1 point wins out of their asses on both. WIS will be tougher than either of those venues IMO and they willl certainly D up.

Under and WIS both hit early as the total is down to 123 from 126 and the Stinkin Badges are up to -2.

[wsox08]

Will likely be on Wisconsin and NW. Home team has won last 11 and covered in the 9 of those and MSU has been playing with fire the past few games. Wisconsin at home is solid

[Franchise]

Obviously a lot of points have already been made on Wisconsin but I agree that it's a great spot for them. I think one key there will be getting someone hitting the outside shot.


One other game that I am looking at is the Providence/SU under 167. This is the highest total by far for SU this year and they have been playing very consistently on defense all season. With their commitment on defense I think the zone will force Providence to slow the pace a little. If they aren't patient on offense they will probably just end up tossing up a ton of 3's and with their length that would lead to Syracuse crushing them on the boards and probably dominating the game. I'm interested to see what side of that people seem to be playing but I am leaning very strongly to the under. Last year they played to almost 200 points but that was a significantly different SU team that had little interest in the defensive end.

I'm also considering Ole Miss since they should have a little better focus than they did on Sunday. And with their depth in the backcourt they could make enough 3's to keep it close with UK. Kentucky should be able to score pretty easily inside but they don't always throw the ball in there.

[Tamin]

I'm confused and would appreciate some help here.

On Vegasinsider.com it shows this:

LVSC Open line

Northeastern -2
Delaware

but the only other line so far is from Sportsbook.com which has Northeastern at -8.

What is the LVSC Open? I've never seen a line so different on there before. I think the -8 is right, and I was gonna jump all over the -2 if I found it anywhere..

[Woody12]

I grabbed Wiscy at -125 on the ML last night but line is up to -2.5 now.

I like wiscy to win this one but would rather not lay any points and just go for the SU win b/c it will be a close one.


I like the home team here. I don't care who you are, the road anywhere gives the home team an advantage with ALL other things being equal.

RPI

MSU #10
Wiscy #14

Saragin ratings

Wiscy 87.91, SOS #9 in the country!
MSU 87.88, SOS #61 in the country

Home court = 4.04 accd to Sag. Ratings


Records

MSU 19-3
Wiscy 16-5

LOSSES

MSU (3):
AT Texas...weak
AT UNC..very weak
N Florida...average.
at Wiscy??

Wiscy (5):
at Ohio State
at Purdue
at Michigan State...Revenge!
at Wisciy-GB...weak
N Gonzaga


So I think even though they may not match up well, they will do enough to win one at home.

Michigan State has squeaked by a few times with 1 point wins vs. Michigan and Minnesota on the road. But those are inferior teams to Wiscy in my opinion.

I remeber what Wiscy did to Duke when they came in for the ACC challenge, and I see it being the same way tonight.

[Badger]

Tamin,

LVSC stands for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. They're the big boys in Vegas that most of the books look to when setting opening lines, hence the "consultants" title.

As for why it listed an opener of -2 and is really -8 ....

All I can say is that you'll find that now and then from time to time. The Internet is vast, and ultimately errors happen. Bad human input? Glitch in program? Bad data? Who knows.

GL if you still play NE. I think -8 is still a nice bet.