Wed 2/3 Discussion

[Tamin]

One game that stands out to me immediately is:

George Mason (-1) at Georgia St

George Mason is 1st place in their conference, 10-1 in conference, 15-7 overall, and has won their last 7 overall , 9 of their last 10

Georgia St is in 9th place, is 3-8 in conference, is 9-14 overall, and has a 1-8 record SU in their last 9 games

During Georgia State's last 9 games, they lost at home to the top teams in the conference.

They lost to VCU (5th place 7-4 Conference) at home by 13
They lost to Drexel (4th place 8-4 in conference) at home by 15
They lost to Northeastern (Tied for second, 8-2 in conference) at home by 12

Those 3 teams are similar to George Mason. George Mason as won their last 3 road conference games.


Why is this line only -1 George Mason?

[FlyersFan]

UGA -4 will almost undoubtedly be a play for me. Love this spot. You have an ARK team coming off of 2 huge upset wins over MISSST and OlePISS (on the road OlePiss was), now taking on a very good UGA team that is off of a narrow loss at SCAR and ARK playing their 2nd road game in 3 days, and their 3rd game in 7 days. I expect a DD win tonight by UGA who really hasn't played a bad game in conference other than the Florida game and that was a predictably bad spot for them. Bad spot for ARK in this one. ARK also has not played well against the East getting pasted by 31 at Kentucky and losing at home by 5 to Florida. Might look at UGA 1H as well. ARK may be a little fat drunk and happy from those 2 big wins (both were on their side of the ledger and versus the top 2 teams in the division)

UNI -6 1/2........UNI is going to return the favor tonight to WichyWoman from a 9 point loss a couple of weeks back. UNI pretty much knows that a win tonight and the conference title is theirs. They are the better defensive team and a great home team. You look at this line and say why is it so high? It's high for a reason IMO. Wichy Woman also playing their 5th roadie in 7 games. UNI 9-0 at home and allowed 51, 40, and 50 to its last 3 conference opponents at home who shot 38, 27 and 35% in those games. WichyWoman has shot 41, 39 and 36% in its last 3 conference road games. I expect a score similar to the one that we saw a couple of weeks back. 63-49 UNI.



BEST ML TEAMS:

UNI -300
UGA -210
OSU 1H
VANDY -280
MIZZOU -550

BOLD 2 teamer pays almost 1:1 and is a great play IMO.

on the ML thing. There is no point playing anything above about -500 honestly. There is so little return on adding a team at -800 or -900 or something above that.......why risk adding 2 or 3 extra games that basically give you minimal investment return.

[joepa66]

Agree with Flyers on those two:

UGA is 5-2ATS at home vs. Arkansas, and 5-2SU vs. Arkansas
Dawgs 7-3ATS at home last 10 versus Arkansas, 5-0ATS last 5 games this year at home, and an impeccable 8-1SU in their last 9 games at home. In their last 3 games they beat Tennessee handily and two were losses @ Florida and @ South Carolina, UGA shot more than 50% from the field in each game, and all were close games. Arkansas has played much better recently, but their road defense ranks 319th giving up 81ppg.


Northern Iowa is 9-2SU vs. Wichita St. and 6-3ATS in their last nine at home vs. the Shockers. In NIU's last 3 games since their loss @ Wichita, they won at Indy State shooting 51%, won vs. Drake shooting 47%, and won at Misery State shooting 45%. Wichita is 2-1 since that win over the Panthers, losing @ Drake right after beating NIU, they beat Ill. State at home, and they held on late last weekend to squeak out a win at Southern Illinois.


Pitt +9 at West Virginia. Pitt is 8-3ATS in their last 11 visits to Morgantown and 6-3SU in their last 9 there. The average score in the game has been Pitt 65 and WVU 62. WVU averages 73ppg at home and Pitt's road defense allows 68ppg. However, WVU's wins at home against the major programs have been close, in their last 5 home wins they lost to Cuse, won by 8 over Marshall, won by 6 over Ohio State, won by 3 over Louisville, beat Marquette by 1, Ole Miss by 9 and Texas A&M by 7. Their only blowouts at home have been to the likes of Loyola (23), Citadel (19), Duquesne (29), Coppin State (26) and Rutgers (34). The 'Eers at 4-8ATS at home on the season.

I might add that I also like Charlotte -7.5 vs. GW as the Colonials are mired in the toughest part of their schedule and are 1-5 in their last 6 games versus X, LaSalle, Dayton, Richmond, Rhode Island, beating only St. Louis and now hitting the road at UNCC. The 49ers meanwhile, have GW their last true test before a "breather" against Fordham and then the fun starts again vs. Dayton.

And how about Utah -9.5 vs. Colorado State with the numbers clearly in their favor at 14-2SU at home vs. the Rams, and 4-1ATS in their last 5 at home against CSU.

[Woody12]

Locked in that ML parlay as I was trying to find a good home team to pair up with UNI tonight. Thanks.

One that I like is UAB +8 at Memphis.

Neither one has played a tough scedule so this seems like a lot of points, even giving credit to Memphis for being at home.

I think this one really should be around 4 or so?

Maybe I am wrong? I am going to dig a little deeper into this one.

Memphis is not what is once was, so I think the public may think of them as a powerhouse, and thats why its shaded a little high.

[TheBeholdah]

so far i played Vandy-6, miss st didnt fare well on the road last 2 games against bama and arkansas, i'l pay to see them fare better in memorial. Bounce back game for the better team at home

gonna get into the rest of the slate when i get time later, Georgia does look to be in a solid spot

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by joepa66

Agree with Flyers on those two:

UGA is 5-2ATS at home vs. Arkansas, and 5-2SU vs. Arkansas
Dawgs 7-3ATS at home last 10 versus Arkansas, 5-0ATS last 5 games this year at home, and an impeccable 8-1SU in their last 9 games at home. In their last 3 games although they were losses to Tennessee , @ Florida and @ South Carolina, UGA shot more than 50% from the field in each game, and all were close games. Arkansas has played much better recently, but their road defense ranks 319th giving up 81ppg.


.

UGA beat the **** out of Tennessee

[joepa66]

Duh, yea, by 15.........
That's what happens when you type while riding on an exercise bike. All the blood drains from your brain to the one you're sitting on! Right on Juan, thanks for the edit DJ III!

[Franchise]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

now taking on a very good UGA team that is off of a narrow loss at SCAR and ARK playing their 2nd road game in 3 days, and their 3rd game in 7 days. I expect a DD win tonight by UGA who really hasn't played a bad game in conference other than the Florida game and that was a predictably bad spot for them. Bad spot for ARK in this one. ARK also has not played well against the East getting pasted by 31 at Kentucky and losing at home by 5 to Florida. Might look at UGA 1H as well. ARK may be a little fat drunk and happy from those 2 big wins (both were on their side of the ledger and versus the top 2 teams in the division)

A couple of things that I question in that statement - Georgia is 1-5 in conference and while they have played well in the first half of some games they haven't shown the ability to finish a game. I don't know that I would call that a very good UGA team. And as far as the days of rest UGA has one more day of rest for each series and Arkansas is playing Sunday-Wednesday. I think 2 full days of rest between games is plenty for a team that does use their bench. And as far as making apologies for a teams play based on the scheduling spots, Arkansas played UK on 1 day of rest when UK was on 6 full days. I think a blowout was to be expected.


Arkansas is vulnerable on the boards as that is how Florida exploited them in the second half. Georgia is not the most physical team around though so that helps Arkansas. Downey had his way penetratrating at will against the Georgia defense and if Fortson can do the some of the same thing he can create easier opportunities for his teammates. And I see Arkansas as a team that is finding it's true form now that Fortson is back in the lineup as they have played very well against quality tournament caliber teams this month with Fortson in the lineup. Pelphrey commented when the guys were out that the defense was suffering since they didn't have enough bodies to practice their pressing defense to have it ready to use. But I see the last two games as the team coming together and gaining confidence. If they had their full complement of players all season it isn't difficult to put them down for 3-4 more victories and then I think a lot of people would look at this game differently. Obviously I'll be on Arkansas but I just wanted to throw a competing point of view out there.


I am also leaning to WVU as Pitt hasn't played well on the road and they will sorely miss Dixon if he is out. Without him last game all the guards saw a significant uptick in minutes and it seemed to make a difference. WVU also has a height advantage at a lot of the spots with Ebanks, Butler, Jones. I think they will hammer Pitt on the boards.

[TheBeholdah]

good post franchise, i do think that it's a tough spot for arkansas, but i dont trust uga in the favorite role too much.

[FlyersFan]

Franchise-

I hear you on your points. I have made money on ARK in conference as i had them versus OlePiss and Alabama. But im not backing off of UGA as i have made a ton of money this conference season and seasons gone by playing a certain way and this play fits the mold.

As for the knocks on UGA....say what you want but this team turned the corner about 3 weeks ago with the win over GTECH and is playing as well as anyone in that conference. 4 of their 6 conference games have been on the road. I will most likely play the 1H in this game as well. I mean I always kind of laugh when teams come out of nowhere and all of a sudden they are unbeatable. Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but i think a 1H play on UGA is a very strong play.

[BoilerBacker]

Originally Posted by Tamin

One game that stands out to me immediately is:

George Mason (-1) at Georgia St

George Mason is 1st place in their conference, 10-1 in conference, 15-7 overall, and has won their last 7 overall , 9 of their last 10

Georgia St is in 9th place, is 3-8 in conference, is 9-14 overall, and has a 1-8 record SU in their last 9 games

During Georgia State's last 9 games, they lost at home to the top teams in the conference.

They lost to VCU (5th place 7-4 Conference) at home by 13
They lost to Drexel (4th place 8-4 in conference) at home by 15
They lost to Northeastern (Tied for second, 8-2 in conference) at home by 12

Those 3 teams are similar to George Mason. George Mason as won their last 3 road conference games.


Why is this line only -1 George Mason?

Whatever you do, dont play George Mason. This is a real trap line. GMU only beat GAST by 3 at home and were outrebounded badly. Besides that, there is nothing glaring at me about the line....it is rather odd. Public is hammering GMU as you would think.

[FlyersFan]

ADDING:

RICE-A-Roni -2........both of these teams suck but i will take a shot with RICE in this one.

UGA -125 1H

TXAM/MIZZOU Over145

UNI -6

OSU -14 -120

ILL/IOWA Under133 -120

GL to everyone on their plays tonight. May still look at an IOWA 1H play. They have been strong in the 1H's of a lot of these games and even led OSU at the half last week in Iowa City.

[Franchise]

Flyers - I agree that UGA has been profitable and playing decent ball. I don't see a turning the corner as they proceeded to lose 5 out of 6 (while covering). But they have been dogs in every conference game and in this game they are favored. So while they have been able to cover while losing this game they will have to cover while winning. And while you pointed out that Arkansas may be happy with their two wins, I would counter that UGA wasn't able to hold off either team in the second half while Arkansas was able to come back vs both of them. Which would lend itself to your first half play on UGA if that pattern holds true. I think Alabama will continue to improve due to chemistry improving and players feeling more comfortable with their roles and at +odds I think their is good value with them tonight. I'm also seeing slightly more people on UGA than Arkansas (not enough to make a difference) but enough to convince me that Arkansas on the road won't be a bandwagon play.

Good luck with UGA tonight.

Boiler - Good point on GMU.

[BoilerBacker]

I think Pitt line is telling you something. Top 25 team as DD dog? I will play WVU first half. Dixon or not, they have not played well in 5 straight games. DeP was leading at halftime and Louisville, quite frankly, gave them a win.

I do not like NIOWA at all. 5.5 pts in what will be a really low scoring game is a ton.

And I like OSU to snooze in the first half.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by BoilerBacker

I do not like NIOWA at all. 5.5 pts in what will be a really low scoring game is a ton.

.

WichyWoman beat UNI by 9 2 weeks ago and i would be surprised if this was not a DD win for UNI. I don't think Wichy Woman gets out of the high 40's tonight offensively.

Good point on OSU, though, i think they do cover the 14 or 15.