thurs discussion

[TheBeholdah]

Virginia Tech-3 vs. unc= unc still getting line respect despite their struggles, they cant protect home court in conference, hard for me to believe they'll win on the road against a revenge minded team

Tennessee-7 at lsu= to anyone considering the home dog here, LSU is DREADFUL. its tennessee or no play

really nothign too appealing on this slate

Joepa- how do you feel about this central michigan team? because buffalo was pretty awful at home vs west mich the other day and as you said they're last in the conference in defense. only catching 3 on the road here

[TheBeholdah]

i just locked in v tech-3, if unc pulls a W here im all over maryland saturday for a multi unit play. id be shocked if unc can put together two good road performances considering they cant even win at home.

[joepa66]

Beholdah.....I was just doing a little research on this matchup and looking more closely at the numbers. CMU is 2nd in defense and 8th in scoring offense, while UB ranks last in defense and 2nd in scoring offense......despite having a rough time of it of late the Bulls are actually shooting the ball much better over their last two games, it's just that they have gotten off the slow starts. Traditionally a close matchup with both teams 5-5SU in the last 10 and a 6-4ATS edge to CMU, the teams average 71.6 (UB) and 71.1 (CMU) ppg.

UB blasted Miami,OH and CMU lost at Miami,OH by 13 shooting just 37%. WMU beat UB handily in Buffalo and the Bulls shot 44% while CMU lost at WMU by 9 and managed only 29% shooting. CMU is 4-1ATS at home on the season. It's clearly a tough matchup but I think you have to go with the home team who is also the better defensive team. I just have this feeling in the back of my mind that Buffalo may break thru in this one.....I'll decide tomorrow!

Also first leans on opening lines to BallSt, WMU, Ohio and Kent. Rumor has it that Toledo has only 7 scholarship players left because they keep quitting the team.

[TheBeholdah]

wow, toledo is a freakin mess

[Daws1089]

Duke back at home off a loss could be a decent first half play. Maybe -5 in the 1st h? not sure.

[TheBeholdah]

daws, probably be closer to -7 since theyre 12.5/13 pt faves. duke is definately worth a look

[Daws1089]

Despite the revenge angle and recently weak play by UNC, I'm not entirely confident in VT. They have had a cake walk of a schedule with their only worthwhile wins coming agains BC, UVA and Miami and those aren't even that great. They did beat UGA and HALL (2 more middle pack teams), but they lost to temple, unc, and FSU. I'm not seeing an edge in this game. I really don't want a part of UNC and I'm not seeing an edge for VT either so I'll pass on this one. Coin flip.

[Daws1089]

Flyers,

Any ml parlays come to mind?

I had a hard time scraping together any unless you were gonna go with some road teams?

[TheBeholdah]

i dont really believe in v tech too much either, but there's enough of a sample size at this point to consider unc's problems legit. and i realy like the angle that if unc wins here there'll be more value in backing maryland saturday, especially if maryland falls to fsu tomorrow. if unc gets further exposed vs vtech then maryland will be laying a bunch saturday i would think.

[TheBeholdah]

maryland plays unc sunday actually

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by Daws1089

Flyers,

Any ml parlays come to mind?

I had a hard time scraping together any unless you were gonna go with some road teams?

hit the nice one with UNI and UGA 1H but lost the mega team one with stupid ass UTAH losing at home.......just another reminder why i never use conferences like that but i wanted to have a little fun Wednesday with a bunch of games for cheap....lol...

Thursday....UW is definitely a ML play and i would use the 1H in that one which should be around -200 or so. I also am leaning to ND on first glance. DUKE 1H ML is another possibility.

Thursdays are tough because it's ****ball night and those teams are not very reliable. Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday for me usually.


I actually like some stuff at first glance but i posted too much stuff before i did my homework today so going to wait until later in the day tomorrow to put stuff up. I led people astray with UGA and ended up posting late that i was on them 1H. Would rather have just said that to begin with so pulling back until closer to tip.

[FlyersFan]

everytime i do what i did on Wednesday it never works out...kept adding losers........had a great play in IOWA under and played the 1H at the last minute...added ****ty ass Rice.....

don't let me do that tonight....lol...

[FlyersFan]

I am not a big east follower. Anyone have any thoughts on ND and UC tomorrow? Revenge game for ND and all things being equal (which i think there isn't much difference between these 2 teams), i'll grab the home team with revenge at a cheap price (-3/-165). But then again i really haven't seen either of these teams very much

[TheBeholdah]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

everytime i do what i did on Wednesday it never works out...kept adding losers........had a great play in IOWA under and played the 1H at the last minute...added ****ty ass Rice.....

don't let me do that tonight....lol...

those late adds wil get ya...

[Franchise]

One that jumps out immediately to me is ASU/WSU total of 133. Both teams have been running much more lately and they don't play remotely the same offenses that most people know. Sendek has really taken the reigns off the offense and is now letting them run as he trusts Derek Glasser. The fact that they dropped a 50 spot on Stanford is the first half is a testament to that as they previously wouldn't hardly have had enough shots to score that many in a half. Plus Sendek had to see on tape how UW abused WSU when they were pushing the ball and getting easy hoops before WSU got setup.


That being said the key to the play is Derek Glasser. He is questionable and if he is confirmed out I think that could swing the total up to 20 points since Sendek has commented how he trusts Glasser but this offense may not be around next year without him. I could see him pulling back the break and going with the die a slow death offense he loves. That is definitely information that you should know before you make the play if you are looking at anything on this game. I am planning to go over or under based on Glasser if I can confirm his status before gametime.

As for the rest of the slate there isn't much that I think I have a good feel for the teams involved. The one other matchup I am considering is Alabama at home against Florida. I don't believe in Florida as I just don't like their discipline or coaching. I think Alabama has showed they have the talent to play with and beat good teams while Florida has taken advantage of some good spots and home cooking in conference while they struggled with every decent team or road game on their schedule in the last 10-15 games.