saturday ml parlay discussion

[TheBeholdah]

wanted to get a separate thread for this, lets get a solid parlay going...

[FlyersFan]

depends how you like to play them. i've been killing these for a couple weeks now.

I have my own criteria which is (a) home teams only (b) no **** conferences (c) no teams over -500 as it's really a waste (d) no more than 4 teams

Im really picky on who i use as well. I refuse to put a team like Tennessee in there. And playing 5 teams and winding up with like -120 still is not the way i will go. I try and get a +150 to +350 return on the investment.

by the way, thanks for LATECH last night...needed a 3rd team...

[FlyersFan]

also, i use 1H plays to minimize juice if i think it is a 1 sided game. For instance taking LATECH last night instead of -700 for the game, taking -350 1H if you thought they control the game.

Also i will use dogs. Used UGA 1H +165 in a huge one i won that 2 saturdays ago.

[FlyersFan]

I like 2 for starters......

CAL -210 (rule violation but notable exception)
DAY -130

WMU is on my radar, though, i don't like using the MAC. tough one today honestly as there is a lot of road chalk.

[TheBeholdah]

what about new mexico to beat san diego st at home. they dont lose at the pit too often

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by TheBeholdah

what about new mexico to beat san diego st at home. they dont lose at the pit too often

MWC is very questionable IMO. I prefer not to use them especially on a Saturday when there are a ton of games. but that is just me

[FlyersFan]

but it is a revenge spot and if i am short i may use NMEX.....

[TheBeholdah]

i dont really agree with throwing dayton in there flyers, play that separately. such a short number might as well play it str8 up and not have to worry about others cashing.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by TheBeholdah

i dont really agree with throwing dayton in there flyers, play that separately. such a short number might as well play it str8 up and not have to worry about others cashing.

that is the thing....not everyone plays it the same way. i am not about putting 5 teams at -600 in these things. I have no problems taking short home favorites. I have been winning doing things this way for several years now and have basically won one a night for the past 3 weeks or so when i have played them. I will look at DAY again tomorrow more closely, but I want value!...i don't want to have to sweat 4 teams out and get even odds or less. I try and find a couple of pretty sure fire winners in the -300 to -400 range and then take a couple of others that pay more.

That is why i don't really think that doing a ML thread is going to work. Everyone has different goals in mind in doing them. I will post what im playing and leave it at that i guess...lol....i know stifler moms is willing to put like 5 -9000 teams in there and pay juice on it (had a 4 teamer at -169 last night and it hit...nice work btw..but that's not me)

I honestly would be surprised if DAY lost tomorrow......

[TheBeholdah]

i got ya, you're probably right. i havent done any ml parlays mainly because my hobby is beating the spread. i was thinking we'd group together like three teams that are favored between 4 and 9 points

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by TheBeholdah

i got ya, you're probably right. i havent done any ml parlays mainly because my hobby is beating the spread. i was thinking we'd group together like three teams that are favored between 4 and 9 points

we can list them but i think that people have to pick from there is my point i guess....


i had UGA +165 1H in a 4 teamer that one that i posed in your thread. i am not afraid of taking low lined faves. my average payout has been about +250 this year.

last night i had UCLA -200/LATECH -700 or -350(1H) and UW -500 and it only paid +109/+131....but there really wasn't much on the card. I erased ND out of there which cost me about +150 on the thing (would have been about +265).

that would probably be my ulitmate combo....a team at like -450, a team or 2 at about -200 and a couple of teams at -300.

[TheBeholdah]

played this parlay at +103

G tech-600 vs nc st
Kentucky-800 at lsu
UAB-500 at rice
New Mexico-340 vs. san diego st

be interesting to see which one blows this. couple road teams but rice and lsu are pretty awful teams. good game for g tech to get back on track aftger duke loss. and nice revenge spot at the pit. we'll see

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by TheBeholdah

played this parlay at +103

G tech-600 vs nc st
Kentucky-800 at lsu
UAB-500 at rice
New Mexico-340 vs. san diego st

be interesting to see which one blows this. couple road teams but rice and lsu are pretty awful teams. good game for g tech to get back on track aftger duke loss. and nice revenge spot at the pit. we'll see

GL!....see that to me isn't worth it but that is JMO. You're barely getting back even money on it. I would much rather put a DAY in there that i think has a very good shot of winning or a CAL and put a little bit more risk in it for a much higher return. I used to play that way and i can't tell you how many times a -800 road team flamed out and ruined the whole thing. Take out the -800 on KY and you will see that it has very little impact on the payout so IMO it isn't worth the risk. As i said, some play and see it differently.

PUR 1H -450 (home to michigan)
XU -200 (home to URI)
UGA +3 1/2/+165/+7 (home to tennessee)
UCLA -140 (home to wazzu)

that was the mother loader i hit and i guess i see a lot more value in something like that. i try and find the best point of risk/reward. if i am going to risk money by asking 4 teams to win, i want something that pays that risk. I always ask myself (a) am i going to kick myself for using that team if they lose and (b) how much do i like their chances and (c) is this good value.

I haven't figured out what i am playing yet

i am actually curious to see if anyone else has thoughts on this. i know as i said stiffy likes the -2000 parlays....Udog plays some 3 teamers and i think his risk is too high IMO, but he does garner larger payouts if they hit.

any way good stuff and good conversation. as i said, there is no right way to play it but everyone has their difference of opinion and i guess as long as you win and are happy with your play that is all that matters....

[TheBeholdah]

i know flyers, i broke like all of your rules haha, not going to make a habit of plays like that. really eager to see which one blows it. i threw kentucky in there mostly because im passing on laying the 12 and want to fade lsu in some capacity.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by TheBeholdah

i know flyers, i broke like all of your rules haha, not going to make a habit of plays like that. really eager to see which one blows it. i threw kentucky in there mostly because im passing on laying the 12 and want to fade lsu in some capacity.

hey, i mean on paper it looks solid......i guess i have played these for a number of years and really tried to dial it in to max gain/risk spot.

right now i am 80% sold on:

CAL, NMEX and DAY. really need to finish my stuff in the AM and see. I would have absolutely no issues backing those 3 and having 1 of them flame out.