Wednesday Discussion

[FlyersFan]

looks like the discussion train is slowing to a crawl. would like to get some feedback and if you have a strong play along with a reason post it.

also, JoePa...instead of wasting all that time and posts wishing GL...how about jumping in here with some thoughts on plays/your plays....

IU +5 1H........have been looking at this play since Sunday. IU has been pretty decent at home other than that Iowa meltdown a couple weeks back. OSU has a huge road game @Illinois on Sunday and i like IU in this spot. OSU shoved it up their ass by 25 points in Cbus earlier in the year. OSU seems to be a team that plays well enough to win and trailed at the end of the 1H @Iowa several weeks back. IU came out poor in the 1H versus northwestern which was predictable and a pretty easy 1H winner on northwestern off that Purdue game. I look for them to regroup and IU 1H is a very solid play IMO grabbing 2 possessions worth of points.

SCAR -2.....like SCAR to bounce back and avenge the 2 point road loss earlier in the season. Allen Iverson Downey should go for 30 points on 48 shots and hopefully that gets it done.

MIA(oh) 1H......leaning heavily to this. MIA(oh) playing some very solid basketball and back home after 2nice road wins. Toledo in a bad spot IMO. They had 2 very winnable games at home score wise and faltered in both at the end. I see no reason why MIA(oh) isn't up 10 at the break or so. MIA(oh) with a great shot to win their side of the MAC and i think that Toledo is probably showing up in body alone here today.


anyone have any comments on those or any other strong plays?

[Giraldo5]

My lines don't usually come out until early that morning but I agee, more discussion would be great. JoePa any MAC advice is greatly appreciated

[Florida-Boy]

How about the GT +1.5 at UM. That sounds like a trap game but I think it worth a look. Gt, to me, is a far better team than Miami. Home court or not.

[Florida-Boy]

To be honest I don't like the M(oh) pick. For Toledo to be down that many scholership players, they have been playin with a lot heart. They are 4-0 against the spread in the last four games. Be careful against these inflated lines.

[Giraldo5]

I took Florida +2. Downey being hurt made that an easy call. I also am liking Richmond +5.5 (@RI), GT +1 (@Miami). Other Games I like are:

Duke over NC

NW over Iowa

Baylor over Neb

VT over NC State

[TheBeholdah]

ECU vs Tulane

ECU is 2.5 point fave. only reason im even lookin at this game is because ecu should not be favored over anybody. they lost by 50 the other day after previously dropping 2 home games vs rice and ucf, it appears these guys have quit on their season. their only conference win actually came on the road at tulane, tulane shot 24% that game from the field. im probably wasting my time even writing this, because tulane sucks balls as well. the moral of the story is do not bet on ecu.

UNLV vs. new mexico

UNLV already handled new mex pretty easily at the pit earlier in year, and the lobos will be hardpressed to get revenge in nevada. UNLV massacred a very good byu team at home last game. i just think if unlv plays anywhere near as well as they did last game they will be very hard to beat at home. both teams enter this game on a roll

Cuse vs. uconn

lot of points cuse is laying here, but i cant help but feel this uconn team isnt built to beat cuse's zone, they dont shoot the ball well enough.

SMU vs. utep

this is kind of a scary bet, uteps playing solid ball, but SMU is playing much better than teir .500 record would indicate, they already beat memphis at home and i think they ahve a shot to know off utep

didnt lock anything in yet

[Daws1089]

its no secret that UNC sucks this year. Many people now know about their troubles so why such a low line? 6 pts is all I have to lay with Duke on the road to this crap tarheel squad? Seems a little too easy. I'm liking the over 73.5 1st half in that game because UNC will need to score a bunch to win that game or be in it.


Over 68.5 1st half of the SYR/UCONN game looks solid too. Just a hunch tho.

[PhilRivers]

its no secret that UNC sucks this year. Many people now know about their troubles so why such a low line? 6 pts is all I have to lay with Duke on the road to this crap tarheel squad? Seems a little too easy.

This is a huge rivalry game. You can throw out all past results this season. I've seen crappy Duke teams beat superior UNC teams in the past and crappy UNC teams beat Duke as well. There is a reason they call this the BIGGEST rivalry in all of college sports. Additionally UNC is playing at home also against a Duke team that has been less than stellar outside of Cameron. Also UNC destroyed their "other" rival NC State this year AT NCSU, and NCSU beat Duke earlier this year.. Tobacco road baby! Personally I think UNC +6 is the play.

Just my 2 cents :-)

[Franchise]

Yes, Phil...ESPN does call this the biggest rivalry in sports. Partially because they televise it and send Vitale there. I think the line is low because of the perception that the rivalry will keep it close. UNC has also had a lot of success in this series with these players so Duke should bring a quality effort. I just don't see a depleted UNC team that can't shoot it and can't defend on the perimeter dunking the ball enough times to win. Did they get new guards who won't turn it over 3 or 4 times a piece? Just my two cents.

[PhilRivers]

Yes, Phil...ESPN does call this the biggest rivalry in sports. Partially because they televise it and send Vitale there.

I said biggest rivalry in COLLEGE sports. I'm pretty sure ESPN isn't the only one who thinks it's a huge rivalry .. have you ever seen the UNC students lighting bonfires in the middle of Franklin Street and jumping through them when they beat Duke? I wouldn't question the intensity of the rivalry.

I think the line is low because of the perception that the rivalry will keep it close.

Well the "perception" of the rivalry isn't working as 80% of the public is on Duke. Seems like the odds makers are welcoming money on Duke.

I just don't see a depleted UNC team that can't shoot it and can't defend on the perimeter dunking the ball enough times to win. Did they get new guards who won't turn it over 3 or 4 times a piece? Just my two cents.

I agree UNC is depleted with one of the Wear twins out for this game, along with Zellar, and I also agree that they have been terrible in general getting out on the 3 point shooters.

One thing you didn't address though is Duke being 2-4 in their road games, barely squeaking past BC by 3 on their last road trip.. They are beatable away from Cameron. Just my other two cents.

Great discussion by the way

[Daws1089]

im looking to use Dayton in a ML parlay, but cant quite narrow it down as to what other teams to use.

Any thoughts?

[Franchise]

I still don't think it's the biggest rivalry in college sports. It just happens to have been pretty relevant the last two decades. I think there are plenty of other college rivalries that are just as big or bigger to the participants and their fans.

I don't know where you see 80% of the people on Duke but I don't see percentages quite that high where I look and the most public place I look is actually under 60.

Since Zeller went down they are 1-4 and got blasted twice at home. Losing Wear doesn't help. Who steps up? They have lost their two home games without Zeller by DD. Duke is as good or better than those two teams.

Duke has struggled on the road but most their road games against Clemson, GT, GTown and Wisconsin were against clearly better teams than UNC. The BC game was also not as close as the final score.

If UNC shoots between 55-70% and turns it over less than 10 times I am sure they cover the number and get a nice W as the teams that have beaten duke when they are on the road have done. I just don't see UNC having that skillset or being able to step up in a big pressure packed game and do that. I'll take my chance on duke.

[Franchise]

Daws - I used SU and Miami.

[BUNK MORELAND]

i bought it down to five and played 3 units to win 2.5 (-120)

This thread has some good points

When i take a road team i like to have good EXPERIENCED guards. And Duke has that . ... The backcourt advantage clearly goes to Duke.. I'm not crazy about the spot , but i'm willing to take a shot ..

Nobody can mess with my rhymes

Good Luck

[PhilRivers]

Good call on Duke tonight covering the spread.. the UNC defense wasn't the problem tonight, they just couldn't knock down their three pointers. I maintain it's the biggest rivalry in college basketball as UNC kept it much closer than the stats indicated it should be for 95% of the game and led for much of the game.

Glad you cashed it though.