Tuesday Discussion

[Franchise]

WF/VT - I am surprised the number is this big. I am leaning toward taking a WF team who is playing well and would be the best win of the season for VT. Obviously they shouuld be up for this game and have been taking care of business but not really in dominating fashion. I don't expect WF to lay an egg and should be able to be competitite.

UC/USF - I want to go back and check their efficiency numbers but this strikes me as a nice under opportunity from what I have seen from these teams. Neither likes to run a lot and they are both patient on offense and will take what the defense gives them before allowing their talent to go 1 on 1 at the end of the clock. Both teams also play hard nosed man-to-man and should be a close game. I give USF the edge as UC hasn't been that good on the road and the UConn win shortened the line. But USF should struggle to score against UC's physical defense.

WMU/GMU - This also looks like a nice under opportunity. WMU is very patient and GMU has no problem playing at that pace when asked. I am going to review the numbers but this one jumped out at me.

UK/Miss St - This line is going to get pounded today. And usually I would be on Miss St. The big questions I see in this game are Can Miss St keep Cousins and crew off the offensive boards? Can Miss St slow the pace a little to frustrate UK? Can Miss St. knock down enough 3's as they have plenty of potent shooters? I am leaning toward no play as Miss St has really played a soft schedule and I just don't know that they are prepared to defeat a team of UK's caliber.

UNC/GT - Looks like UNC may be suckering people off their win vs NC St. I don't think I am buying. I like GT to bounce back after a few disappointing games on the road. The inside advantage is absurd and GT should dominate the paint.

Anyone have thoughts on other games?

[Daws1089]

Depaul -4

This is scary. DePaul favored over anyone is crazy. Rutgers off of the big win against GTOWN, now on the road. I might play DePaul 1st half, but I'm not laying -4 with that squad.


I think if you are going to play MISS ST., you should play them in the first half.

[Woody12]

Anyone see a nice look-ahead, go against, for Old Dom tonight laying 23 points to Towson.

ODU has Northern Iowa in a bracket buster game on Friday at UNI.

I know Towson is a horrible team, but 23 points in a spot like this may be worth a look?

[Daws1089]

Towson has covered just one double digit spread as a dog this year on the road and that was back in November. Thye lost as 13 pt dogs at home to ODU by 16 pts. And the last time they were dogged anywhere near 23 pts was when they played at VCU as a 19 pt dog only to lose by 59.

[PhilRivers]

Careful on the GTech play. Paul Hewitt has the most talent in the ACC and a losing ACC record. He's a bad bad coach. Also looks like UNC has learned to play defense lately.

[PhilRivers]

I agree on that WF play though.. they have a good chance to win straight up imo.

[Daws1089]

I don't know about Wake.VT have been quietly going about their business. Yea they haven't beaten anyone great, but they also haven't played anyone great recently. I thought the line would be closer to a -1 or -2. The -5.5 has me thinking VT.

[PhilRivers]

yeah I keep going back and forth on Wake and VPI so likely no play for me.. I do think that Wake is the better team but I'm worried about that ACC home cooking.

[Franchise]

I agree with both of you (Daws and the leader of the Paul Hewitt fan club). After looking at some more of their pace and efficiency numbers, line movement and opinions I have been swayed to the other side on a couple of games. I guess these were some teams that I didn't know as much about as I initially thought.

I like VT in this spot as two of their recent games (UVA and Clemson) were against much more rested teams and yet they were still able to perform well. I was also surprised how well they rated out defensive efficiency wise which is really aided by the TO's they force.

I'm also going with Miss St on the ML. Just a gut feeling with the line percentages and movement. I think they bring their A game and make a big run in the 2nd half where UK struggles a bit on the road.