Discussion Saturday

[FlyersFan]

Have some time saturday so wanted to get some thoughts. I haven't seen a game since last saturday with some personal stuff going on so kind of out of the loop.

FLA +5 @ OlePISS......kind of high for an OlePiss team taht has lost 4 of L5 and reportedly has some on court issues. FLA has been competitive on the road for the most part in conference losing by 1 @ Tennessee and 2 @ Scarolina recently. Is the oddsmaker still giving OlePiss too much credit or is this a trap line?

OKST -2 vs. BAY......like the pokes here for some reason. Revenge spot too.

UGA -2 vs. ALA.....UGA has been good and covering like a machine at home for the most part. ALA very pedestrian away from home. Interesting game as neither of these teams can hold a lead in the 2H something fierce.

TLS -1 vs. UTEP.....i don't know what has happened to TLS recently. I was all set to play them 2 weeks ago in this revenge spot but not so sure anymore. Anyone else like TLS or have a feel for this game?

CHAR +4........nigel, what is X going to do today?

UW -6 1H.......perfect storm here IMO. UCLA off a road win by 20+ at Wazzu and UW off an egg laying versus USC. I remember the way they played at home versus ASU and Cal and im willing to bet on the same today. Revenge spot and i wouldn't be surprised to see UW up 12+ at the break.....but then again this is the Pac10....but i have done very well in this conference and i think have won about 5 straight games involving UCLA so have a good beat on at least one of these teams today.


CRAPPETBUSTERS:

Dogs dogs and more dogs. Dogs of 1-4 points cover like mad over the past few years in this thing i read. I honestly don't know how anyone can handicap these games as almost NONE of them have any impact on brackets and how do you know who actually cares about the game more than the other team....

anyhow, thoughts?

[Nigel Tufnel]

Not sure I'd pick against X today, Flyers. They are playing with quite a bit of confidence after beating Florida on the road last weekend and absolutely killing St. Joe's. I think the key to this game will be Xavier's front line against Charlotte. X is much bigger and more physical in the paint than Charlotte and Jason Love and Jamel McLean are playing as well as they've played all year.

In their first game this year, Charlotte shot 2-22 from the 3 point line. If they come out hitting their threes, it could be a very tough game for X. Its hard to predict how a team is going to shoot from deep. Also, if Love, McLean or Frease get 2 quick fouls at the beginning of the game (a la @ UD a couple weeks ago), X could also be in for a nail biter.

Recent history indicates that X really turns in on down the stretch in the league. They appear to be doing that right now after the Dayton debacle a couple of weeks ago. Jordan Crawford has been doing a really nice job recently getting the big men more involved and not forcing shots. He has been letting the game come to him, looking to get others involved and he's still getting his 20 points per game.

Halton Arena will be rocking today. This is a pretty huge conference game....definitely HUGE for Charlotte. X can likely seal an NCAA bid with a win today, barring some type of total meltdown.

Like I said, you can never predict if a team is going to come out and be on fire from the three point line. I guess I think there is a higher probability that X can dominate the paint and Crawford can control the game moreso than Charlotte being on fire from 22 feet.

Think X pulls away late with free throws and wins by 7-10 points.

[Franchise]

I like your UW play. It does seem to be a good spot in bizzaro world on the west coast. As for the others I thought Ole Miss would deliver a good performance the other night and they weren't able to get it done vs Vandy. The spot says Ole Miss win but I could see a letdown after the tough loss the other night. Florida has been competitive in every game and their only decent loss was X but X is much better than Ole Miss.

My other thoughts are

St Johns/USF Under 128 - Both teams grind it out on offense and aren't able to consistently push the pace. Should be a lot like the USF/UC game.

Xavier/Charlotte - Xavier is the better team and I think this is the nail in Charlotte's coffin. They were very fortunate to win all the close games in the A10. They are the anti dayton in that they don't blow you out but they manage to win the close ones. I think today's another DD loss to knock one team off the A10 bubble.

WF -1' /NC St - This line looks a little too easy but Wake has played well on the road. I think too much credit is being given to the home team.

Rutgers +6' vs UConn - Sell out at the RAC and UConn laying points? Where do I sign up.

Vandy -1' vs UK - Vandy has been getting tougher and they should come ready to play after getting steamrolled at the start of their last UK game.

[Franchise]

Originally Posted by Nigel Tufnel

In their first game this year, Charlotte shot 2-22 from the 3 point line. If they come out hitting their threes, it could be a very tough game for X. Its hard to predict how a team is going to shoot from deep. Also, if Love, McLean or Frease get 2 quick fouls at the beginning of the game (a la @ UD a couple weeks ago), X could also be in for a nail biter.

If X doesn't come out and try to show how tough they are then the big guys shouldn't have foul problems. I don't think that's an issue since Charlotte isn't a rivalry game. I like X by DD.

[PhilRivers]

WF -1' /NC St - This line looks a little too easy but Wake has played well on the road. I think too much credit is being given to the home team.

I completely agree. lol unless this game is fixed I don't see any way that NC State stops Ish Smith and co.

But realistically the only way I can see NC State winning is if they take the lead from the very beginning of the game and never give it up. That's a lot to ask from the worst team in the conference. When this team gets behind they immediately go into panic mode and their coach nor players have any clue how to regain their composure.

[BoilerBacker]

Perfect setup for Charlotte. X off huge win, Charlotte off bad loss and and home with 2 game losing streak. Throw in a little revenge from a 12 pt loss in Cincy, a game where X shot 53%

[BoilerBacker]

Played NC State earlier this week vs. Md and will probably do so again today. NC State is only a 1.5 pt dog to a top 25 team and they have a 5 gm losing streak..... line is telling you something guys.....

[Giraldo5]

I'm playing Wake for sure. NC State looked dreadful in that 2H vs Maryland because of how quick Vazquez was and Smith is even quicker plus Aminu makes this an easy choice for me

[Franchise]

Yes, the game does setup perfect for Charlotte if people believe they deserve to be in the top of the league. They have been very fortunate in their league games where they have outscored league opponents by 6 points yet are 8-3 while X has outscored opponents by 138. X is a significantly better team and at full strength. Xavier has shot 48% in all league games so 53% really isn't out of line.

[PhilRivers]

The line is telling me to take Wake Forest. NC State is unable to handle adversity and you can believe Gaudio's squad will give them plenty of it. They are a mentally weak team. I agree the line looks "fishy" but I wouldn't try to over think this one.

[BoilerBacker]

Originally Posted by Franchise

Yes, the game does setup perfect for Charlotte if people believe they deserve to be in the top of the league. They have been very fortunate in their league games where they have outscored league opponents by 6 points yet are 8-3 while X has outscored opponents by 138. X is a significantly better team and at full strength. Xavier has shot 48% in all league games so 53% really isn't out of line.

It doesnt really matter if X shoots 48% vs crap like Fordham or St Bonny or St Joes. Charlotte only gives up 41%. X made 10 of its first 15 shots vs. Charlotte in the first game.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Originally Posted by BoilerBacker

It doesnt really matter if X shoots 48% vs crap like Fordham or St Bonny or St Joes. Charlotte only gives up 41%. X made 10 of its first 15 shots vs. Charlotte in the first game.

The season is almost over....I think that means that you have to take X's shooting percentage against the good teams they've played in the A10 too, not just cherry pick Fordham and St. Joe's...they haven't played Bonny yet.

It will be an interesting game. It does set up nicely for Charlotte, but in the first game Frease was 2-2, Love 5-7 and McLean 2-4 from the field. Right now, McLean is playing much better than he was in the first game against Charlotte. I think X's big men can really make the difference today. At the same time, like I previously posted, if Charlotte comes out firing from 3, then it could get rough for X.

Just like X's confidence and play right now. I'm hoping they realized from the win @ Florida that they can go on the road and beat a decent team. Maybe they've got over the hump from this year's previous road woes. Again, if its close, X is pretty solid from the line. That always helps.

Boiler, I think you're still just mad about X beating Purdue in the tourney a few years ago.... j/k. Speaking of Purdue, it amazes me that this year's team is nearly the exact same team X played 3 years ago in the tourney. I expect big things from this experienced Purdue team in the tourney.

Either way...GL!!

[FearTheRaven]

more homer insight.

Terps and Over.

[FlyersFan]

i am on UNCC +2 1/2 1H and NCST 1H....agree with Boiler on both of those and liked them both to start with.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Originally Posted by FearTheRaven

more homer insight.

Terps and Over.

If that was directed at me, ouch...lol. The refs in the X game made some pretty atrocious calls, the majority of which went against Charlotte. But I don't think that some bad calls in the second half made a difference in this one.

X shot 52% from the field, 80% from the line and McLean was a monster with 14 and 11. When things would get a little dicey, Crawford took over and finished with 23 pts, 4 rebs and 6 assists. I'm wrong more often than not and not trying to suck my own dick, but this game went kind of how I thought it would. Plus, I agree with Franchise that Charlotte had been living on the edge in the A10.

Next game for X @ SLU....probably won't see any homerism from me. That one is going to be TOUGH!!

GL!