Thursday Can i get some thoughts Discussion Thread

[FlyersFan]

Good day on Wednesday as SLU and TXAM take care of business as does UKY. Wish I would have played UMD and UND but oh well.


Anyone have a read on some of these MAC games. MIA(oh) -4 just seems to easy IMO.

Also a MONSTER game in the A-10 as the fighting Franchises take on the Spiders of Richmond. both teams could use this win but much more so for DAY IMO. Not sure if DAY has the goods to do this but the oddsmaker at least expects a close game as the line is RICH -3. Spiders 13-1 at home and off of that heartbreaker at the Fighting Nigels. I just wonder why the line is so low. I expected a line of like -5.

SIU -4 is interesting. DRK has swept the season series by 5 and 7 points and the last one coming 2 weeks ago. Yet SIU is a 4 point favorite in this one. Hard to beat a team 3 times in one year and the line is almost telling you that SIU is the look. DRK finished 2-6 and their only 2 wins were over CSUN in a stupid meaningless assinine bracket **** game and then over the aforementioned SIU. SIU finished on a similar note at 2-5 and with their only wins over lowly Evansville and their crapetbuster game over WesternMichigan from the Mac. I find the line pushing me to SIU. Anyone on this?

I don't like a whole lot today. Also debated UAZ as UCLA is one depleted roster especially inside. But UAZ has hit the ****s too so that as far as im concerned is a glorified men's league game. UAZ -6 though seems steep but i don't want UCLA even though it is a revenger for them. All you want is to set yourself up to stay away from Cal in the pac10 tourney so seeding and positioning is a big deal here i suppose.

[BUNK MORELAND]

I got a good look at Richmond against X and really liked what i saw.

I think it's gonna be tough for Dayton to win that game.


....

Pitt is rested... They have Providence coming in tomorrow , i expect a blowout to tell you the truth. Pitt has a chance to close this season out and head into the BIG EAST TOURNEY with 24 wins. I think Dixon is the front runner for national coach of the year.


Pitt needs one win in these next two games to lock up the bye in NEW YORK.

I think they get it tomorrow against Providence who they lost to last year at Providence

[BUNK MORELAND]

Lean NM ST +6.5 @ Nevada

NM ST haswon four in a row

This team has a good chance of winning this regular season title .

I think 6.5 is a solid number to grab with them tomorrow night

also check out that over / under 162.5

First meeting between these two went waaaay under that number ... 77-67 Nevada Wolf Pack win

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by BUNK MORELAND

I got a good look at Richmond against X and really liked what i saw.

I think it's gonna be tough for Dayton to win that game.


....

Pitt is rested... They have Providence coming in tomorrow , i expect a blowout to tell you the truth. Pitt has a chance to close this season out and head into the BIG EAST TOURNEY with 24 wins. I think Dixon is the front runner for national coach of the year.


Pitt needs one win in these next two games to lock up the bye in NEW YORK.

I think they get it tomorrow against Providence who they lost to last year at Providence

i agree on DAY but i guess my ultimate question is why is the line so low. I thought this line would come around -5 or so. Apparently either this line is WAY off or the oddsmaker thinks that DAY does have some fight left.

PITT laying 11 is kind of steep IMO but i know nothing about Providence so i will have to take your word for it. Honestly didn't follow many of the eastern conferences this year for whatever reason. didn't see or follow much A-10 outside of the top couple of teams.

[FlyersFan]

Originally Posted by BUNK MORELAND

NM ST

This team has a good chance of winning this regular season title .

no way in heck they go into USU pavillion gymnasium auditorium tool shed and beat USU on Saturday IMO. That place will be nuts.

Line is kind of strange on that UNR game honestly. NMSU has been an enimga on the road. Win at LaTech and then lose at SJSU and Fresno.

[Franchise]

I agree with you Flyers on the Dayton line and I am shocked that it is this low. Especially with Dayton's struggles (some real, some imagined) on the road. They have a couple of dissappointing performances looking back (Joes and Duquesne) but other than that they have been solid. They are one of a few teams that hasn't lost a game by DD this year. With that being said even as a Flyer fan I expected atleast 5 if not more so I am glad to see it low and getting pounded like it's money growing on a tree.

I think the game will be a battle but like always Dayton just needs to find two people to score the basketball and they should be in good shape. They matchup very well with Richmond and London Warren is more than capable of keeping in check whichever guard he gets matched up with. Dayton played their best defensive road game last game against Temple but they weren't able to knock down open shots. I won't be playing a side but I will be on the under. Both teams play great defense(Top 30 nationally in efficiency), hold teams to sub 40% shooting and Richmond plays at one of the slower paces in the country.

Other than that not much on the card that interests me tonight as I'm not a big Pac 10 or MAC guy. I am considering the under in the USC/ASU game as both teams are fine scoring 25 pts in a half and setting basketball back 30 years. The last one I may go with is MSU -13 vs PSU. The last time they played Talor Battle kept it close for a while but eventually they handled. MSU was in control most of the game even with Battle going for 30 and hitting shots from 10 ft behind the 3 pt line. That was also Lucas's first or second game back after his ankle injury. I suspect Izzo will challenge his team to take away Battle because of the great games he has had against MSU and if Battle doesn't get 30 I don't know how they can cover the number.

[Franchise]

One more note - UD's backup pg Rob Lowery injured his ankle and may miss the game. Now it would seem as if an injury would be a bad thing but Lowery has cost our team atleast a few games this season and even when not costing them games he has managed to shrink leads to make them close. His backup is a transfer from Wisconsin and solid player, slightly better shooter and defender. Not quite as quick off the dribble but more consistent. He typically plays 15-20 min pg anyway but getting all their guards an extra 5 minutes of PT isn't a big problem with the numbers they use. Lowery turned the ball over 2 possessions in a row when it was 41-38 at the end of the Temple game, turned it over for the game losing score at Duquesne(and fouled Saunders on the breakaway for the 3 pt play), managed to go 3-17 at X when london warren was hurt and managed to shoot 0-11 (0-10 from 3) at New Mexico in a 2 pt loss. Apparently he is slow to realize his shot isn't falling and he only shoots 35% from the floor anyway. I know it's not good to root for an injury but I don't think this will hurt the team in this game and actually takes one of their potential negatives to the bench.

Also even though the line moved a point it is continuing to get hit at 90+% at the places I check. If it keeps getting pounded like a porn star I'll be on the Flyers.

[Franchise]

Richmond is currently the third most popular bet at sportsbook for the day and taking a whopping 97% of the bets.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Dayton should be able to absolutely kill Richmond on the boards....but if they can't put the ball in the bucket, it won't matter. I was extremely impressed with Richmond on Sunday against X. X didn't play particularly well, but every time it felt like X would pull away, Richmond responded. Tonight is Senior Night @ Richmond, so the fans and Spiders should be pumped up.

The line does seem freakishly low....that scares me. UD is just tough to figure out. They have the most athletic team in the conference...but they just seem to have some kind of mental block on the road.

The line tells me to take Dayton and points...don't think I'd take the ML. A 2-3 point Richmond win wouldn't surprise me. At the same time, I can also see myself putting my head through a wall if I take Dayton on the road and they **** the bed, on the road, again.

Good luck to your Flyers, Franchise. I don't think many in the A10 or even in Dayton are predicting a win....might just be the right time for the Flyers to take one....God knows they need it.

Oh, and if its a close game, Rob Lowery being out is the best thing that could happen to Dayton.

[Nicky Santoro]

JoePa is probably the guy to listen to on the Kent/ Akron game for Friday night, but here's my 2 cents. This great match-up will be televised on ESPN2 at 8. Same records for both teams overall and in conference and you can almost bet it's a pick game. Whatever team gets the points (which won't be much) I'd lean hard that way. These two teams don't like one another and I could agree with that totally as I am a KSU alum. I will definitely have a homer pick with a small play on Kent. The winner will be adjudged the Mid-American Conference regular-season champion, receive the top seed in the conference tournament next week in Cleveland and be assured of getting at least a bid to the National Invitation Tournament.

Rhodes arena is not a large facility holding an average of 3,000 Zips. Not all that good especially if the Flashes pull away it will be dead quiet. KSU is hot right now winning 12 of the last 13. Sophomore forward Justin Greene posted his sixth double-double of the season with 18 points and 11 rebounds to lead the KSU attack against Miami. Named the MAC East Player of the Week for a third time since Jan. 1 on Monday, Greene is averaging 21.7 points and 8.7 rebounds the last three games while shooting 74 percent (23-31) from the field and 86 percent (19-22) from the foul line. He leads the team in scoring (14.1 ppg) and rebounding (6.8 rpg) this season and as of Wednesday ranked fifth in the nation with a +11.9 ppg scoring increase from last season.

Senior guard Chris Singletary is a MAC Player of the Year Candidate and the only active player in the conference with over 1,000 points (1,181), 400 rebounds (448), 300 assists (309) and 150 steals (186). He leads the team during MAC play averaging 13.7 points and 4.0 assists per game. The Golden Flashes would be only 12-18 overall and 6-9 in the MAC without Singletary this season

Big key in the game for KSU is Anthony Simpson, they are 12-0 this season when he scores in double figures. He's now a strong 6th man shooting over 70% from 3 over the last 9 games!!

Taking Kent around a pick

[Nicky Santoro]

Sorry, I know this is a Thursday discussion but I really don't have a play tonight and I'm pumped for this game.

[Franchise]

Thanks Nigel...The thing I see with them, and I will admit I have been ridiculously frustrated by their play on the road, is that they have actually improved quite a bit in that respect this year. In past years they would get clobbered by poor teams on the road and not even be in the game. This year it hasn't been the same thing just little things here or there and they have actually put up some pretty good performances when all things are considered. They almost won at X where no one wins and probably would have if not for Crawford's heroics, they played a phenomenal defensive game at Temple just couldn't make layups and Lowery and Huelsman took too many shots, lost at SLU where everyone has been played tough and if they hadn't pissed down their legs in the first 4 minutes of the second half they would have won handily as they had a 15 point lead at the half and lost a tight game at Duquesne where Dukes shot lights out for a stretch and Lowery had to lead the team with Warren in foul trouble. And their non-conference neutral site losses were to K St and Villanova so and both were one possession games.

Obviously all those little things count but if they get a few breaks they win a few of those games and are looked at in a completely different light.

I agree that pretty much no one is giving them a chance both nationally and their own fans. But if Dayton gets two guys who provide some scoring punch (probably Chris Wright and one shooter who gets 3ish 3 pt's) they should be able to score some points. I also didn't notice the rebounding difference for Richmond. If Richmond doesn't attempt to get offensive boards like vs X I think that helps Dayton even more. Based on the numbers Dayton should rebound atleast 10% more of their misses than Richmond giving them an extra 2-4 possessions and potentially easy baskets. Which in a game in the 50's is huge. I have also read a lot of analysis claiming that Richmond has the best D in the conference although I am not sure where they are making that up from. As any supporting numbers really don't agree that statement especially when pace and effective FG%, etc are factored in.


And now I am getting so excited that this game can't start soon enough.

[Franchise]

Unfortunately Rob Lowery will be suiting up for tonight's game. Based on previous games that may be a bad thing.

[Woody12]

Just saw Kent came out at +3. Like them too over Akron on Friday.

My fav play for tonight is SIU -3 over Drake.

And Witchy State to win the tourney +285.

[PhilRivers]

There's some good discussion going in here.. Flyers (or anyone else for that matter), you should start a thread for Saturday too since Friday cards are usually pretty bare... then maybe we could have a head start on it? just a thought, but I bet if we get peoples input early we could be on the right side of a bunch of diff games come Saturday. What do you think? Too soon to start a Sat discussion?