NCAA Tournament Discussion (Opening Round)

[COACH DITKA]

Bored at work and haven't seen much activity on here since yesterday afternoon so figure with only 70 hours and change until the first set of games tip off, we might as well start talking about these games.
The lines are out - I tried to guess the lines before I looked at them and then compare. I found it ironic the 3 games I was way off on all involved B10 (the conference I know the best by far) teams.
Anything stand out to anyone?

[Hoosier]

i think the strangest line is Minnesota a 1.5 point favorite over Xavier. i don't see any way they could be favored over Xavier, a team that is always a tough out in the tourney. just seems fishy...

[COACH DITKA]

Originally Posted by Hoosier

i think the strangest line is Minnesota a 1.5 point favorite over Xavier. i don't see any way they could be favored over Xavier, a team that is always a tough out in the tourney. just seems fishy...

I completely agree Hoosier. I had that one at Xavier -5 and was shocked when I saw the Gophers favored by a point and a half. I don't know what Minnesota has done to get a line like that. Yeah, they won 3 straight this wknd but they were fighting for their lives, the Iowa win shouldn't even count, Michigan St, while solid, it just seems like they are missing something this year (good win regardless), and a Purdue team w/o arguably it's best player. They hung around for a half yesterday before fatigue set in and the rest of the country saw them get blasted in the 2H. This is also a team that went up to Ann Arbor 2 weeks ago and got pummeled by 28 to a UM team that is pretty bad in its own right. You are absolutely right in this being a fishy line - seems like the oddsmakers just want money to pour in on Xavier IMO.

[Hoosier]

pretty much completely agree with everything you said. can't make sense of that line. Xavier just seems like a sucker bet.

i also think it's a little weird to see Gonzaga dogged vs. FSU. maybe it's just my infatuation with them but to dog them vs. a middle of the road ACC team? waaaaay too much love for the ACC, IMO.

also initially leaning:

Ok St. -2 vs. G Tech
Houston Cougars +9 vs. Maryland
Richmond -1.5 vs. St. Mary's

[Kevin]

Hey Coach,

You were one of the 64 invites for our justbet bracket. Be sure to check in there once lines come out so you can make your picks! You can find the contest on the MAIN forums page at http://www.predictem.com/forums

[Woody12]

I agree on that Xavier line but I already took the bait with them and they are my first offical play at +1.

A strange line, thats for sure but I cannot see Minny winnining this game.

Cannot wait to hear what the X fans in here think.

I am also looking at UNI +2 over UNLV. If they playt the D they have been playing all year, UNLV won't know what hit them. The MWC isn't the most defensive orinented league, and its going to be a contrast of styles for sure!

[Franchise]

As an A10 fan I don't think the line is that out of whack on Minny/X. Minnesota has a great comptuer profile in regard to it's effeciency, ppp, adjusted scoring margin, etc. that is off a nice run in the Big 10 tourney that plenty of people saw on tv. While X is a team that didn't get a lot of national pub all season after some tough early road losses (off the top of my head in OT at Wake, @ K St and @ Butler on the garbage call at the end of the game) yet has been rock solid and consistent all season. I think it was expected that people would lean to Minnesota whether they were favored or dogged by a couple of points since they are the major conference team and X isn't really a mid major darling. I suspect the percentages will even out on this game as the start time nears. Personally I like X a little in this game as they have as much size and shooting ability as most teams (with Love, Freese and McClean inside and Jackson, Crawford, Holloway and Redford outside) plus a go to slasher in Crawford who can create a shot on anyone and a pg who doesn't turn it over and can get to the hoop at will in crunch time. Their major weakness is athleticism and occasionally transition D as evidenced by struggling against Dayton in the first 33 minutes of the games they played. I will root for X and I like their chances but probably not enough to play them although I want to check some more numbers on the game.

A couple of other games that caught my eye and need further examination.

Cornell/Temple - Cornell seems to have become the mid major media darling this season. And while I think they have a very nice team and competed with Kansas, Temple is also a very good basketball team. They were a double champion of a very good league and are an exceptionally coached and disciplined basketball team. I think they were sold a little short as a 5 seed but I love this spot for them. Also Cornell's coach is a former assistant to Fran Dunphy.

St Mary's/Richmond - Another good spot for an A10 team. If Richmond controls Samhan I think they do a fine job of locking down the shooters for St Mary's. Richmond plays very disciplined offense and defense and will challenge St. Mary's on both ends. They also do an exceptional job of preventing fast break offense even if it means giving up the offensive boards. They have used that strategy against both Xavier and Dayton with great effectiveness and are more athletic at the guard and wing spots than St Mary's. In my eyes the keys will be can Richmond play quality, challenging D and how effective are Anderson and Gonzalvez. I think yes and very are the answers and I don't think the 3 pm start helps the west coast team that's travelling east at all.

Siena/Purdue - Siena isn't nearly the team they have been the last few years and everyone is trying to take a dump on Purdue. I think they rebound nicely against a team that was behind in very conference tourney game and had to storm back. Siena should struggle to break down Purdue and Ubiles will not be able to take Kremer 1 on 1 to create baskets when their offense breaks down.

[COACH DITKA]

Originally Posted by Franchise

A couple of other games that caught my eye and need further examination.

St Mary's/Richmond - Another good spot for an A10 team. If Richmond controls Samhan I think they do a fine job of locking down the shooters for St Mary's. Richmond plays very disciplined offense and defense and will challenge St. Mary's on both ends. They also do an exceptional job of preventing fast break offense even if it means giving up the offensive boards. They have used that strategy against both Xavier and Dayton with great effectiveness and are more athletic at the guard and wing spots than St Mary's. In my eyes the keys will be can Richmond play quality, challenging D and how effective are Anderson and Gonzalvez. I think yes and very are the answers and I don't think the 3 pm start helps the west coast team that's travelling east at all.

Siena/Purdue - Siena isn't nearly the team they have been the last few years and everyone is trying to take a dump on Purdue. I think they rebound nicely against a team that was behind in very conference tourney game and had to storm back. Siena should struggle to break down Purdue and Ubiles will not be able to take Kremer 1 on 1 to create baskets when their offense breaks down.

Franchise,

I'm glad you brought up that point about the time difference in the St Mary's / Richmond game as that was something I was going to mention. I like Richmond in this one as well w/the early start time for the west coast team out east.

Has anyone ever tracked time zone differences in the past tournaments? If I know my time zones correctly, Vandy, Butler, St Mary's, San Diego St, Purdue/Siena (would cancel out), Gonzaga, Michigan St, Maryland, and Cal will all be playing 3 time zones away although St Mary's seems to be the most notable since all the other teams either gain 3 hours (the east teams out west) or are playing at night.

I do like Purdue as well. Hummel or no Hummel, they are still are very good team w/Johnson and Moore plus the solid role players like Kramer, Lewis, and Grant.

[Daws1089]

Which 2,3,or 4 seed do you see having the most likely chance of making the final 4? I like OSU, but they have no bench so I'm not taking them. If they run into foul trouble they are done. They are also pretty small.

I'd like to take baylor, but I've only seen them play once...

Anyone else have some insight?

[Franchise]

Daws - I know in the last few years that the top seeds have won out but I think this will be a different year. There is a lot of mediocrity at times throughout the bracket but there are also a lot of teams that are capable of knocking off the top teams due to matchups, etc if they play well. I think we see carnage after the first round this year.

Final Four - I like Kansas's chances and I really don't think their bracket is that tough. Especially matchups wise. OSU could be a tough matchup for KU if they survive with their 4 guard lineup and quality shooters. But KU would also be able to exploit them pretty bad in the paint. Aldrich would have a field day. Gtown would be an interesting matchup and I think the path could open for them to meet KU.

West - I like the winner of KSU/BYU. I think SU could struggle without AO or against any of Butler, UTEP or Vandy. All 3 teams have size and shoot it well. KSU or BYU would also have a decent travel advantage if the regional plus a home court advantage for BYU (who might need it).

East - I like New Mexico, Wisconsin or Temple. I know these teams aren't traditional powers but I think UK is susceptible in the sweet 16 to a slow down, defensive team who can knock down the outside shot and is efficient. The winner of Wisky/Temple (I lean to Temple) definitely fits the profile of a team UK has struggled with. Plus I don't know that UK has been tested with the most difficult schedule and this could be a wake up call a little late for them. I also think WVU could struggle with Clemson or Missou in the second round. WVU can struggle to score and against up tempo and pressure defensive teams they can get out of control. I think the winner of Clemson/Missou and New Mexico fit the bill.

South - I think a Baylor/AM rematch in the regional is very possible. I know Baylor is a trendy pick but I like their path and I think their opponents would struggle with their size and athleticism. I think AM would have the size and athletes to win a low scoring battle with a supportive crowd on their way to a final four birth.

My pick - Kansas, K St, Temple and Texas AM. I think the Big 12, MWC and A 10 conferences have big tournaments.

Now obviously none of those teams will make it now.

[FlyersFan]

KU and UK are no brainers IMO.

One team everyone seems to have written off and i'm just wondering if now that they are out of the big east and playing teams that aren't as familiar with them and they kind of get a "2nd wind" if they make a run and that is Villanova. I like the Baylor/Nova winner out of that bracket. TXAM is a nice team but i don't think they make it past Duke.

West i like Vandy or KState. Everyone is sleeping on Vandy but they very quietly had a great season this year and were very solid. They lost 4 games after January 1 and 2 were to UK. One was at Georgia who was beating everyone at home and then they fell asleep at home in the 2nd half of their last regular season game to SCarolina (SEC tourney was a meaningless game as are most of those games so not factoring that in).

I will be interested to see how many "upsets" there are this year. I think there are some serious first round sucker lines honestly.

One other comment i will make. I will say that the oddsmaker really did a ****ty job this year IMO catching up with teams. I was betting UGA like mad at home and wondering why week after week they were catching points or in a pick 'em at home. OlePiss is another team that the oddsmaker never caught up with. Their lines were inflated game after game as they lost one after another. Reason i bring that up is that i used to think "oh wow, fishy line, im staying away" or it would talk me into playing the "fishy line" side. But i can't tell you how many times the oddsmaker was flat out wrong. I am done worrying about certain lines being a certain way. Oddsmaker was wrong enough this year to make me confident in my own picks and what i saw.

[DukiesBaby]

Originally Posted by FlyersFan

One other comment i will make. I will say that the oddsmaker really did a ****ty job this year IMO catching up with teams. I was betting UGA like mad at home and wondering why week after week they were catching points or in a pick 'em at home. OlePiss is another team that the oddsmaker never caught up with. Their lines were inflated game after game as they lost one after another. Reason i bring that up is that i used to think "oh wow, fishy line, im staying away" or it would talk me into playing the "fishy line" side. But i can't tell you how many times the oddsmaker was flat out wrong. I am done worrying about certain lines being a certain way. Oddsmaker was wrong enough this year to make me confident in my own picks and what i saw.

i totally agree with this when it comes to college basketball... i noticed the nba i still catch the "fishy" lines , but in college basketball seems like they are paying less attention and focusing more on nba since it has grown more intrest recently

[DukiesBaby]

man gotta post my frustration... this match up BUTLER vs UTEP....

u got butler on 1 hand running 18-0 in conference beat ucla on a neutral court and ohio state at home and @ northwestern... 3 wins at big conference schools... won there confrence tourney and are currently riding a 20 game win streak heading into the tournament...

on the other hand u have Utep coming off a loss fresh after a 17 game win streak, got 2 decent wins vs oklahoma and @ conference rival memphis (who lost to kansas by 2 earlier this year) and have a overtime loss to ole miss & close loss to BYU ....

i keep hearing everyone telling me how this is a scare game for butler, and utep can score and are very athletic... now butler struggles for sure vs athletic type teams, as u saw when they played georgetown who is a pure athletic team....




anyone else have a strong opinion on this game right now i am leaning 65% in favor of butler -2.5

[Franchise]

Originally Posted by DukiesBaby

u got butler on 1 hand running 18-0 in conference beat ucla on a neutral court and ohio state at home and @ northwestern... 3 wins at big conference schools... won there confrence tourney and are currently riding a 20 game win streak heading into the tournament...

on the other hand u have Utep coming off a loss fresh after a 17 game win streak, got 2 decent wins vs oklahoma and @ conference rival memphis (who lost to kansas by 2 earlier this year) and have a overtime loss to ole miss & close loss to BYU ....

i keep hearing everyone telling me how this is a scare game for butler, and utep can score and are very athletic... now butler struggles for sure vs athletic type teams, as u saw when they played georgetown who is a pure athletic team....

Well the thing I notice in this game is on one hand you have a Butler team who has 3 wins against BCS schools but UCLA wasn't good, OSU didn't have Turner and Northwestern isn't good. Their best win was the disputed home win against Xavier and their bracket buster against Siena. And yes, going unbeaten in any conference is impressive but I'm not overly impressed by Butler's body of work. I think they are overseeded and this is more of a 7-10 type matchup.

UTEP on the other hand played very well once they worked Character into the fold and have better road wins than Butler (6 of them in fact (UAB, NM St, Tulsa, Tulsa, Marshall, Memphis). The inside/outside combination of Character and Culpepper can be devastating.

I am leaning to UTEP as I think the key in the game will be Character and Moultrie inside for UTEP. Matt Howard has a problem with foul trouble (113 on the season at 3.5 pg) and if that happens in this game UTEP will just pound Butler in the paint and score at will. Character is a beast at 6'9" and 275ish. I think UTEP's a little stronger defensively and that plus Howard will be the difference. Just an opposing view point.

[Franchise]

Originally Posted by DukiesBaby

i keep hearing everyone telling me how this is a scare game for butler, and utep can score and are very athletic... now butler struggles for sure vs athletic type teams, as u saw when they played georgetown who is a pure athletic team....

Butler lost to GTown because they couldn't make layups. Howard was scared by GTown's bigger front line and couldn't finish. I sat 15 rows behind the basket and watched him cost me money. Also if you look at all the other games Butler played against legitimate, physical post players the consistent theme you see is big games for the opponents and lots of foul trouble and limited minutes for Howard.