Nigel's A10 Pick -- 11/12

[Nigel Tufnel]

Well, I'm going to kick off the year going against Xavier tonight....reasons below.

WMU +15.5 @ Xavier -- 2 units

Xavier has done a lot of hard work to gain a national reputation over the past 10 years. They've rarely had any down years...as such, I think they're starting to get a little national love. While I appreciate that as a fan, I had grave concerns about Xavier's ability to score this year with the losses of Crawford and Love. Within the last month, I have become much more disheartened. Xavier lost backup 3 point freak Brad Redford for the year with a torn ACL first. Then, a highly touted freshman shooting guard, Justin Martin, who would have gotten A LOT of time this year is declared a partial qualifier and is out for the year. Third bad thing that happens is McLean fractures his orbital bone and is out for 6 weeks. I really thought McLean was due for a big year for X...he may still have one, but he's out right now.

That leaves Xavier with Holloway and Lyons, 2 six foot guards, Dante Jackson at the 3, Andrew Taylor (I believe a walk on who got a scholly), and Kenny Frease. Frease has lost a lot of weight and looks better, but he did absolutely nothing in their last exhibition against Bellarmine, so he can't be counted on as being a consistent contributor. Guys, that's just not that impressive of a lineup. Holloway and Lyons are nice guards...but they aren't consistent 15-20 point a night contributors.

Xavier's bench is 3 freshmen....no experience whatsoever and learning the system.

I have no idea where the consistent scoring is going to come from...none whatsoever. And that lineup isn't one of 5 double digit scorers, which was a trademark for X before Crawford last year.

I think X will win tonight....but a win is not a guarantee. I know nothing about WMU...this is solely based on what I know about X..and I'm worried.

This one is going to be ugly tonight....I'm hoping for an X 6-8 point win.

GL!!

[joepa66]

GL Nigel! WMU picked for 4th in the MAC West division. They have one of my favorite coaches in the MAC, Steve Hawkins. He's a bit more about the Broncos:

The Broncos won 18 games last season and reached the semifinals of the MAC Tournament behind the play of MAC Player of the Year and Associated Press All-American David Kool, center Donald Lawson and wing Martelle McLemore. Despite the graduation of those three players, the Broncos return two starters among nine returning letterwinners.

BACKCOURT

The Western Michigan backcourt is anchored by junior point guard Mike Douglas who dished out 10 assists in a pair of games last season on his way to passing out 149 assists, fifth-most in a single season at WMU. Douglas finished the year ranked third in the conference with 4.52 assists per game and fifth with a 1.82 assist/turnover ratio. Douglas added 3.9 points and 2.0 rebounds per game last season.

Douglas will be spelled at the point by Alex Wolf the lone senior on the team who led the Broncos by shooting 50 percent from beyond the three-point line last season and dished 45 assists to only 19 turnovers. Demetrius Ward played in all 33 games and averaged 3.2 points and 2.8 rebounds per game, while also contributing 22 assists and 20 steals.

FRONTCOURT

Western Michigan's front court is anchored by a pair of All-MAC performers in junior Flenard Whitfield and sophomore Nate Hutcheson. A 2008-09 MAC All-Freshman Team pick and 2010-11 Preseason All-MAC West selection, Whitfield is the Broncos' leading returning scorer and rebounder with 10.1 points and 5.2 rebounds per game last season. The 6-foot-7 Detroit native shot 50.6 percent from the field and 71.6 percent from the free throw line. He can be pretty effective at 15 to 17 feet and around the basket. Hutcheson was a MAC All-Freshman Team pick last season after contributing 5.3 points and 2.7 rebounds per game, while 42.2 percent from the field and 36 percent from behind the three-point line.

The small forward position could also see action from 6-foot-6 freshman Juwan Howard, Jr., from Detroit Pershing High School. The son of long-time NBA player and former Michigan Fab Five forward Juwan Howard, Howard, Jr., is an all-around player that averaged 24.7 points, 12.3 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game as a senior in high school.

Hawkins has a number of choices to plug in at the center position with 6-foot-7 junior Muhammed Conteh, 6-foot-10 sophomore Shayne Whittington, 6-foot-9 junior college newcomer Caleb Dean and 6-foot-9 freshman Matt Stainbrook at his disposal.

Whitttington finished with 22 points and 25 rebounds in 16 games for the Broncos last season, while Stainbrook averaged 10 points and seven rebounds per game over his two-year varsity high school career with multiple other Division I prospects at Cleveland-area prep power Lakewood St. Edward.

[joepa66]

Not alot of scoring from WMU who prides themselves on slowing the game down......X may roll on here, or it'll be a late run that lifts them!

[Nigel Tufnel]

Xavier is not good right now. Here's what I see happening...X will get crushed in November and December...they will play respectable in the A10 and Mack will have this team playing decent ball in late January and February...I really think Mack is a good coach and I expect this team to get better...not sure they are NCAA calibur this year...may be an NIT year for them.

Next year....seriously, watch out. As little depth as this team has this year, how can one year make a difference? Watch. They will be overvalued early this year, undervalued in February, not make the tourney and be really undervalued next year. How can one year make such a difference? They literally get 8 contributors next year. Redford back, Justin Martin eligible after practicing all year this year, Travis Taylor, transfer from Manhattan who averaged 20 ppg...power forward, and three highly touted recruits who will contribute immediately, PG Darwin Davis, SG Dezmine Wells (a freaking badass...look him up on youtube), and PF/C Jalen Reynolds. The difference between this year and next year, and the year after that (got a top 5 SG recruit already, D'Vauntes Smith Rivera) are going to have X better than they've ever been.

This year...yeah, not so much...until later in the year.