sunday

[TheBeholdah]

Dont know if im going to have a play for sunday, but it made me feel better to write my thoughts on here as im coming to a necessary realization.

I've been doing some thinking, trying to make sense of why i generally start off strong and then struggle this time of the season. Sometimes, the midseason struggle gets disastrous, and i need a long break like last season.

in the first half/third of the season, i take advantage of underrated teams in out of conference matchups, and fade overrated teams. thats why i like betting this sport the most

This time of year... With conference play in full swing and familiar matchups with sharper lines, often times you either have to lay big chalk, or take a shakey home dog. the right side of a game is the inferior home team more often than not.

The iowa-michigan game is a perfect example of the adjustment that has to be made at this stage of the season. Iowa nearly made my card, but i wasnt feeling the low line, only getting 2.5 pts with freakin iowa vs a tourney team? Its a difficult bet to make, and one i ultimately couldnt pull the trigger on based on how pathetic they played past couple games.

.. i lost against freaking arizona st tonight, a team i would never feel inclined to trust with my money, and i would have lost if they were a 9 point favorite and i took the points. this time of year the right side is a weaker team playing at home vs a better team more often than not, and i just dont like capping that way when the line is unnappealing.

If i dont make an adjustment, i will have this problem year after year... after year.

[TheBeholdah]

anyone feel where im comin from with this?

[TheBeholdah]

step 1 of the adjustment, betting on jerry at home. i usually ignore these kind of games.

1.07/ 1 u

Penn St+3 vs. minny


line seems overadjusted due to the indy upset, penn st is significantly better at home

[TheBeholdah]

takin break indefinately till im ready to win some bets again, gl boys. probably be back in week or 2