Week 5 Early Leans Please Advice!!

[vogeln2001]

Here are some of my early leans for Week 5 (September 29):

• Oklahoma -22.5 @ Colorado
• Kansas State @ Texas -15
• Penn State -3 @ Illinois

What do you all think about that??


2007 CFB: 9-2 +10.473 units

• Underdogs (line): 1-0 +1.000 units
• Favorites (line): 6-1 +8.022 units
• Over: 1-0 +0.775 units
• Under: 0-0 +0.000 units
• Underdogs (su): 1-1 +0.676 units
• Favorites (su): 0-0 +0.000 units

[msl90]

I'm not sure if I'll be alone here, but I don't love Penn State. Back to back conference road games, facing a solid underrated Illinois team that could easily be 4-0. It also could be a look-ahead game for PSU as after this road game they come home to face Iowa and Wisconsin...Also, Rashad Mendallhall could run just about as well as Hart did vs this defense. I like the other two, but I'm not a huge fan of PSU here.

[JayCol]

I think Penn St. simply has too much talent for Illinois, so is a good play.

Texas on the other hand is inconsistent, so I wouldn't bet on them.

JC

[K-9 Buckeye]

PSU has a good defense but their offense is up and down and mostly down. Illinois is a young and upcoming team. I think there are better values out there. I was actually hoping PSU would be favored by more as I would have placed a small wager on the Illini, but +3 or so isn't enough to make me bite. I'll just watch with interest.

[The Gipper]

Penn St's should be able to wax Illini, but Morelli has got to play like a big time QB in big games.
I agree that Texas has been woefully inconsistent and is not a good play against a team that plays very tough defense. Besides isn't have the team out on bail? LOL

[blineman88]

I'm not the norm but I think Illinois can beat Penn St. at home. I'm considering betting the moneyline for the game. Oklahoma definitely can cover that but it just depends on how motivated they are. I never bet on Texas. Good luck.

[COACH DITKA]

Originally Posted by K-9 Buckeye

PSU has a good defense but their offense is up and down and mostly down. Illinois is a young and upcoming team. I think there are better values out there. I was actually hoping PSU would be favored by more as I would have placed a small wager on the Illini, but +3 or so isn't enough to make me bite. I'll just watch with interest.

Good to see some support/respect out there for my Illini in MSL, K-9, and Blineman.
K-9 - I would think you can be at ease. I am rather surprised that line only opened at 3. I figured it would open higher. Don't know if the line has changed today as I haven't checked it lately. However, in the eyes of a casual gambler (esp. down south or out west), a ranked Penn St team coached by the legendary Joe Paterno going into Champaign, a place where wins come as often as positive things said about Rex Grossman ( ), it would look like easy money. The fact that other than the Missouri game, the Illini haven't been on TV other than the B10 Network, thus, further limiting the amount the public knows about them due to lack of exposure. IMO, this is one of those lines that looks too good to be true and probably is. The linesmakers are almost begging for Penn St to be pounded. I would expect the line to move up a couple more points before some late $ comes in on IL.

As for the game, IL is a very dangerous team. Their running game has been great this year, spearheaded by Mendenhall, as the bigs up front have been opening some nice running lanes. The passing game is a different story though as Juice is still struggling in that regard. I would expect the Lions to crowd the box and force Juice to beat them with his arm, leaving a lot of single coverage on the outside for the WRs, including Benn and even the TE Cumberland down the seams.
The Illini defense has been solid, with the D-Line even getting a great pass rush in their last few games. If they can continue this on Saturday and put pressure on Morelli, look for the playmakers in the back 7 like Leman, Harrison, and V. Davis to come up with a big play or two. Not to mention Memorial Stadium is sold out for this game and will definitely be rocking as my fellow students and I have been waiting for a big game that is meaningful for quite a while now. Don't want to sound like a homer, but Illini are definitely a home dog to consider this weekend.

GL to all who play this game.


Moose

[NittanyLions94]

Word out of PSU practices is that Morelli is on a short leash this week, which is good for anyone backing PSU.

[msl90]

Originally Posted by COACH DITKA

Good to see some support/respect out there for my Illini in MSL, K-9, and Blineman.
K-9 - I would think you can be at ease. I am rather surprised that line only opened at 3. I figured it would open higher. Don't know if the line has changed today as I haven't checked it lately. However, in the eyes of a casual gambler (esp. down south or out west), a ranked Penn St team coached by the legendary Joe Paterno going into Champaign, a place where wins come as often as positive things said about Rex Grossman ( ), it would look like easy money. The fact that other than the Missouri game, the Illini haven't been on TV other than the B10 Network, thus, further limiting the amount the public knows about them due to lack of exposure. IMO, this is one of those lines that looks too good to be true and probably is. The linesmakers are almost begging for Penn St to be pounded. I would expect the line to move up a couple more points before some late $ comes in on IL.

As for the game, IL is a very dangerous team. Their running game has been great this year, spearheaded by Mendenhall, as the bigs up front have been opening some nice running lanes. The passing game is a different story though as Juice is still struggling in that regard. I would expect the Lions to crowd the box and force Juice to beat them with his arm, leaving a lot of single coverage on the outside for the WRs, including Benn and even the TE Cumberland down the seams.
The Illini defense has been solid, with the D-Line even getting a great pass rush in their last few games. If they can continue this on Saturday and put pressure on Morelli, look for the playmakers in the back 7 like Leman, Harrison, and V. Davis to come up with a big play or two. Not to mention Memorial Stadium is sold out for this game and will definitely be rocking as my fellow students and I have been waiting for a big game that is meaningful for quite a while now. Don't want to sound like a homer, but Illini are definitely a home dog to consider this weekend.

GL to all who play this game.


Moose

Yup I expect the public to be all over PSU and the line should move a bit, that's why I'm waiting to take it...

[El Hacko]

I like the OU pic you have....I think they roll once again!
GL

[hodown]

ditka, i agree 100% on the illinois game. i know the games are played on the field and not by the books, but books definitely want psu money.