Cal @ Oregon

[msl90]

Anyone have any thoughts here?

Oregon's backfield of Dixon and Stewart is definitely one of the best in college football. Dixon has 11 passing touchdowns without a single pick, he averages over 70 rushing yards per game, and Stewart averages about 130 a game I believe. Cal has not seen a backfield like this all year. Last year, Dixon was hurt during this game I believe, and Cal won (at home). The year before, Longshore was hurt, Oregon won (at home). Oregon has looked very good so far, winning at the big house, and winning by 24 in Stanford. Cal has given up only 3.2 yards per carry so far this year, but the best back they faced all year, Arian Foster, gained over 6 yards per carry against them. Both Oregon and Cal gain exactly 6.2 yards per carry, one thing to worry about for Cal is that Oregon runs the ball almost 50 times per game, way more than any team Cal has seen yet (especially because Cal has led just about always). Cal's secondary has looked mediocre so far, but Oregon's wide receivers won't be looking for the homeruns, they'll just be looking for the occasional first down. I think it'll really be on linebackers Zack Follett (if he plays) and Worrell Williams who has broke out so far to contain the Oregon running game.

Now to the other side...Cal has way more weapons than any team Oregon has faced. Desean Jackson, Lavelle Hawkins, Justin Forsett, Jahvid Best, Cameron Morrah, Craig Steven, Robert Jordan etc. are all threats in the open field. Obviously Jackson is the difference maker. He had a return TD and receiving TD vs Oregon last year, but with his bad thumb he has not been much of a force in the passing game so far. Hawkins on the other hand, has been. The fact that Manningham and Arrington combined for 14 catches and 186 yards for Michigan when they faced Oregon bodes well for the Cal receivers. Patrick Chung is a solid corner for Oregon, but I still think Cal will fare very well through the air. Now to the running game. Forsett has been great so far, he played hurt to close out the game last week, and ran well vs a fairly tough Tennessee defense. Oregon gives up over four yards per carry too.

Bottom Line
I'm not sure Oregon can stop Cal, but I'm not positive Cal can stop Oregon either. Also, though I think Cal is the more complete team, can they overcome the home crowd in Oregon?

Spread Oregon -4.5

At the moment I think I'm leaning towards Cal and the over (whatever it ends up being), anyone else have thoughts?

[Delta00]

Originally Posted by msl90

Anyone have any thoughts here?

Oregon's backfield of Dixon and Stewart is definitely one of the best in college football. Dixon has 11 passing touchdowns without a single pick, he averages over 70 rushing yards per game, and Stewart averages about 130 a game I believe. Cal has not seen a backfield like this all year. Last year, Dixon was hurt during this game I believe, and Cal won (at home). The year before, Longshore was hurt, Oregon won (at home). Oregon has looked very good so far, winning at the big house, and winning by 24 in Stanford. Cal has given up only 3.2 yards per carry so far this year, but the best back they faced all year, Arian Foster, gained over 6 yards per carry against them. Both Oregon and Cal gain exactly 6.2 yards per carry, one thing to worry about for Cal is that Oregon runs the ball almost 50 times per game, way more than any team Cal has seen yet (especially because Cal has led just about always). Cal's secondary has looked mediocre so far, but Oregon's wide receivers won't be looking for the homeruns, they'll just be looking for the occasional first down. I think it'll really be on linebackers Zack Follett (if he plays) and Worrell Williams who has broke out so far to contain the Oregon running game.

Now to the other side...Cal has way more weapons than any team Oregon has faced. Desean Jackson, Lavelle Hawkins, Justin Forsett, Jahvid Best, Cameron Morrah, Craig Steven, Robert Jordan etc. are all threats in the open field. Obviously Jackson is the difference maker. He had a return TD and receiving TD vs Oregon last year, but with his bad thumb he has not been much of a force in the passing game so far. Hawkins on the other hand, has been. The fact that Manningham and Arrington combined for 14 catches and 186 yards for Michigan when they faced Oregon bodes well for the Cal receivers. Patrick Chung is a solid corner for Oregon, but I still think Cal will fare very well through the air. Now to the running game. Forsett has been great so far, he played hurt to close out the game last week, and ran well vs a fairly tough Tennessee defense. Oregon gives up over four yards per carry too.

Bottom Line
I'm not sure Oregon can stop Cal, but I'm not positive Cal can stop Oregon either. Also, though I think Cal is the more complete team, can they overcome the home crowd in Oregon?

Spread Oregon -4.5

At the moment I think I'm leaning towards Cal and the over (whatever it ends up being), anyone else have thoughts?

Actually, Dixon did play last year and was the Dixon the rest of the Pac-10 is normally used to. 3 picks.

I really don't know what to make of this game yet, I think I'm leaning towards a play on Cal just becuase I believe Oregon has been inflated so far. Everyone is thrilled about them since the Michigan game, and any speed would do that to Michigan.

[Neyland]

msl90,

I was a bit suprised to see the opening line on this game. I tend to agree with your writeup, with one exception. You said that Forsett ran the ball pretty well against a "fairly good Tennessee defense". I agree he did run the ball quite well, but Tennessee's defense this year has been the worst I've seen in years. I mean, they are bad.

Both teams "stiffest" competition came against teams that have proven to be less than advertised. Oregon's win over Michigan, while a beatdown, was against what I believe to be a very mediocre team, even despite the win against Penn State last weekend. Cal, on the other hand, beat what I also believe to be an even less than mediocre Tennessee squad. Colorado State was likely Cal's toughest test yet, which I think was a pretty impressive win against a pretty good Rams team in Ft. Collins. From a "games played" standpoint, they look pretty even to me.

You gotta believe the oddsmakers are giving 3-3.5 points to Oregon for playing in Autzen, which is a tough place to play, thereby making this a pretty even matchup with home field advantage being the reason for the line.

I'm also not a huge fan of Tedford in bigtime Pac-10 games like this. Admittedly, I don't know much about the Ducks' coach, but I think by gametime the public will be all over the Golden Bears and you might be able to snag the Ducks at less than a field goal fav, which I think would be a decent value at home.

[DevilsAdvokt]

it might be a homer pick but the whole damn campus is pumped up for this...
college game day will be here and i havent seen the players so pumped up for the game they were talking about it last week before standford game... about how college game day might be here, now that they are coming here i cant see us losing this game... to us ducks out here this game is our season.. we been looking at it since school started we know cal is good, but the 12th man here at autzen will bring the house down on the bears.... i will help contribute to the noise this weekend and ill be screaming my "O" lungs off for every turnover or false start we contribute too...

Go ducks! and good luck to everyone on the ducks!