Week 7 Discussion

[NittanyLions94]

Is it too early to start looking at some lines? Here's what has jumped out at me so far:


Arkansas -3 - Ranked team as a dog, play the fav. Not gonna try to buck a hot trend.

Indiana +5 - Is it time for the annual Michigan State collapse yet? Indiana can put points on the board and might surprise some Big 10 teams if they aren't ready.

Central Mich -11 - Army's offense is just WOW bad. Their only big offensive game came at the expense of lowly Temple. Central Michigan's D is bad, but I think they can put up enough to get over this number.

UCF +11.5 - USF in sort of a look ahead spot with an away game at Rutgers looming next week. UCF has a good offense that should be able to move the ball against USF.

USC -21.5 - I expect the public to pound this number, which sort of scares me, but USC should absolutely roll up Arizona after what happened the other day. Pete Carroll would love to run the score up in this one.

Bowling Green +2.5 - Miami(OH-IO) has not one bit of offense, and their D is just as bad.



Thoughts?

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by NittanyLions94

UCF +11.5 - USF in sort of a look ahead spot with an away game at Rutgers looming next week. UCF has a good offense that should be able to move the ball against USF.

Already played it & thinking about a ml play as well

[BoKnows]

Originally Posted by NittanyLions94

Is it too early to start looking at some lines? Here's what has jumped out at me so far:


Arkansas -3 - Ranked team as a dog, play the fav. Not gonna try to buck a hot trend.


Thoughts?

Yep...this system (unranked team AT HOME as a favorite vs a ranked road team...play the fav)has been killing it this year as I have played it everytime!Now it has to be on my Tigers Oh what to do....keep pounding or....?????Either way gl to you as if it were not my Tigers I would lay large as usualTenn and Illini were nice last wknd!

Your lions look like $$$ as well!!Yea baby!

[jd08]

I like Wake +6 against FSU on Thursday night at home.

I'm going to wait until later in the week to play it though because I think that line will go up as the public will hammer FSU on name recognition. But Wake isn't a bad team and FSU has really played no one thus far. They needed lots of defensive help just to put away a terrible NC State team at home last week. One thing that Wake won't do is beat themselves with turnovers and poor execution. I'm not sure that an anemic FSU offense can do enough to cover the spread which will likely be over a touchdown by game time.

[dananderson32]

like that arkansas play at -3 alot ..........i like utep -2 at home too against e carolina

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by jd08

I like Wake +6 against FSU on Thursday night at home.

I'm going to wait until later in the week to play it though because I think that line will go up as the public will hammer FSU on name recognition. But Wake isn't a bad team and FSU has really played no one thus far. They needed lots of defensive help just to put away a terrible NC State team at home last week. One thing that Wake won't do is beat themselves with turnovers and poor execution. I'm not sure that an anemic FSU offense can do enough to cover the spread which will likely be over a touchdown by game time.

[Ming the Merciless]

i like ucf, but they were up like 3 tds last week on crappy ECU and let them come back and win by like 14. Their lack of D scares me.

[DevilsAdvokt]

Wow some really interesting matchups this week....

im taking a good hard look into these games and some possible upset moneyline plays here


oregonst +13 1/2 @ cal

Missouri +10 @ oklahoma

Kentucky +9 1/2 vs Lsu

Washington +12 @ Arizona st

Auburn +3 @ arkansas

Purdue +5 1/2 @ michigan

Syracuse +17 1/2 vs Rutgers

Louiville +10 1/2 @ Cincinnati

liking all these ud's ats, and will probably play most of them.... some might consider for straight up wins... i have feeling we are gonna see 1 undefeated team at end of year which imo will be ohio st. (cup cake scheduel imo)


a couple favs this week lean'n towards..

sourh carolina - 6 1/2 @ north carolina

V-tech -13 1/2 @ duke

Penn st -6 1/2 vs wisconson

tcu -6 @ standford

Michigan st -5 vs indiana

memphis -4 vs middle tenn st.

[Underdog88]

Originally Posted by DevilsAdvokt

Wow some really interesting matchups this week....

im taking a good hard look into these games and some possible upset moneyline plays here

Kentucky +9 1/2 vs Lsu

Louiville +10 1/2 @ Cincinnati

At first glance Kentucky & Louisville may seem to be getting too many points, but IMO they could both be in for long days... LSU off a scare vs. Florida, I think they come out focused & pound the ball down Kentucky's throat. The Cardinals are just plain bad defensively, IMO Cincy likely wins by 2td. I have a very hard time seeing either one of these dogs coming close to cashing on the ML, but that's me...

[Larry]

I think the best dog on the board this week is Purdue. How is Michigan's horrible defense gonna stop Purdue's offense.

[Queen]

Originally Posted by Larry

I think the best dog on the board this week is Purdue. How is Michigan's horrible defense gonna stop Purdue's offense.

I looked at that and thought it was fishy also. I was thinking of taking Purdue also

[Nigel Tufnel]

The line that jumped out at me and looks really fishy is Illinois -3.5 @ Iowa. Iowa is dreadful right now and Illinois is playing some solid football.

Maybe a sandwich game for Illinois...in between Wisky and Michigan. But damn, I would have thought the line would have been higher than that. Indiana went to Iowa and won by 18 points....Illini went to Indiana and won by 13. Common sense would dictate a higher line, IMHO. But common sense doesn't get you far in the world of college football wagering.

[hodown]

usually if it looks to good to be true it is. but not in this case. iowas defense will have a hell of a time keeping up with illinois speed. if you break down the sagarin and each teams avg scoring on the year then the line looks about right. but the stats are misleading.

[hodown]

and to actually further my case on illinois, just look at the last 3 opponents for each, all of whom are common (indiana, penn state, and wisconsin). heres the breakdown

offense pass rush total
illinois 113 377 490
iowa 208 76 284

defense pass rush total
illinois 317 130 447
iowa 231 165 396

avg score
illinois 28 to 20
iowa 13 to 27

illinois can be had through the air but not by iowa. top 3 receiving threats gone for the year and christensen looks lost in the pocket, at 54% right now. team rushing not helping, avg 3.3 ypc. offensively in the big 10, iowa is last in total yards, last in scoring, last in rushing, second to last in passing.

statistically, the iowa defense has fared much better. but opening with niu, syracuse, isu will help that out. the game against wisky was conservative for both teams, not surprising being that bielema has iowa roots. it was a no-brainer indiana would cut up iowa, because they do every year and parker cant stop the spread. the surprising one was psu, whos very average offense went for 490 total, 257 of that on the ground.

point is, iowa has gotten worse every game of the year since the syracuse game. they looked bad against isu, avg against wisky, very bad against indiana, and terrible against psu. illinois has much better team speed on both sides of the ball, and they have a great chance to go 10-2 this year and earn a possible bcs birth. iowa and illinois dont like each other, so there is a small chance of illinois looking ahead. iowa is +7 in the turnover category this year, so even if illinois turns it over a ton, iowa obviously isnt capitalizing. and the final thought that might scare people is that the game is at kinnick. go check out the message boards at rivals and see how happy fans are right now with the job kf has done. it goes against my major conference homedawg trend, but so be it. I think Illinois wins this by 17, but just my thoughts.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Well, that pretty much has me sold. Two teams going in very different directions. Plus, the game is not at night in Kinnick, which can be very difficult. 11:00 a.m. game. Think I'll get this one now before the line goes up.

Thanks, hodown for the research...much appreciated.