NCAAFB 10/10 Wed. - Sports Betting Forums

Low · #1 (**permalink**) 10-10-2007, 06:37 AM

DUG UP A BUNCH OF INFO FOR TONITES NAVY/PITT GAME...THOUGHT MAYBE IT WOULD HELP SOMEONE WITH THEIR DECISION ON THE GAME....GLTA

I'LL BE BACK LATER WITH MY PICK.

Navy:

* Over is 6-2 in NAVY last 8 non-conference games.
* NAVY are 46-18 ATS in their last 64 road games.

Pittsburgh:

* PITT are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
* Over is 9-3 in PITT last 12 home games.
* PITT are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

ATS Trends
Navy

* Midshipmen are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Midshipmen are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week.
* Midshipmen are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
* Midshipmen are 46-18 ATS in their last 64 road games.
* Midshipmen are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 games as a road underdog.
* Midshipmen are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
* Midshipmen are 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
* Midshipmen are 40-18-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Midshipmen are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
* Midshipmen are 32-15 ATS in their last 47 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
* Midshipmen are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 games following a S.U. win.
* Midshipmen are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Midshipmen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on Grass.
* Midshipmen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
* Midshipmen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Pittsburgh

* Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
* Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
* Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.
* Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
* Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.
* Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
* Panthers are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. loss.
* Panthers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. INDEP.
* Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
* Panthers are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on Grass.
* Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week.
* Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.

OU Trends
Navy

* Over is 5-1 in Midshipmen last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Over is 5-1 in Midshipmen last 6 games following a bye week.
* Under is 5-1 in Midshipmen last 6 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 4-1 in Midshipmen last 5 games as an underdog.
* Under is 4-1 in Midshipmen last 5 games in October.
* Over is 4-1 in Midshipmen last 5 road games.
* Over is 6-2 in Midshipmen last 8 non-conference games.
* Over is 5-2 in Midshipmen last 7 games as a road underdog.
* Under is 7-3 in Midshipmen last 10 games following a S.U. win.

Pittsburgh

* Over is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
* Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
* Under is 7-2 in Panthers last 9 games following a bye week.
* Over is 9-3 in Panthers last 12 home games.
* Over is 8-3 in Panthers last 11 games as a home favorite.
* Over is 5-2 in Panthers last 7 non-conference games.
* Over is 5-2 in Panthers last 7 games in October.
* Over is 5-2 in Panthers last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
* Over is 5-2 in Panthers last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
* Over is 7-3 in Panthers last 10 games on Grass.
* Under is 11-5 in Panthers last 16 games following a ATS loss.

NAVY (3 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 3) - 10/10/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 94-64 ATS (+23.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 94-64 ATS (+23.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 61-37 ATS (+20.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NAVY is 47-19 ATS (+26.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
NAVY is 47-19 ATS (+26.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 50-20 ATS (+28.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
NAVY is 41-18 ATS (+21.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NAVY is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Navy at Pittsburgh, 8:00 ET ESPN
Navy: 27-7 ATS off a home win
Pittsburgh: 12-28 ATS off an Over

Low · #2 (**permalink**) 10-10-2007, 06:38 AM

Wednesday, October 10

Navy at Pittsburgh (ESPN | 8 PM ET)

Pitt is coming off a bye week after three straight losses, including the last two by a combined 50 points. The Panthers have been stung by injuries to starting QB Bill Stull, WR Derek Kinder, DT Gus Mustakas and RT Jason Pinkston, all of which are expected to miss this game as well. Reserve QBs Pat Bostick and Kevan Smith have combined to throw just three touchdown passes with nine interceptions in Stull's absence. "We've got to get (a victory)," Pitt head coach Dave Wannstedt said. "It's important. You come out here and work this hard and put this much time into it, the thing that's frustrating is you're recruiting good players, and they come here and we've got guys that want to win and are preparing to win, and we've got to find ways to make it happen. There's no other way to really put it than that." SLIGHT EDGE: NAVY
Navy has failed to cover four of five this season, going 0-2 ATS on the road. However, the Middies are also coming off a bye week following a 31-20 win over Air Force for their only ATS victory of the season. SLIGHT EDGE: NAVY
These two teams have not faced each other since 1989 when Pitt beat Navy 31-14 at home but failed to cover a 28-point spread.
Navy is 46-18 ATS in its last 64 road games.
Pittsburgh is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games overall.
The OVER is 6-2 in Navy's last 8 non-conference games.
The OVER is 9-3 in Pittsburgh's last 12 home games.
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SERIES RECORD

The series started in 1912, but Pitt and Navy meet for the first time in 18 years. The Panthers lead the series, 20-12-3. Pitt and Navy played 19 consecutive seasons from 1961-79 and seven consecutive seasons from 1983-89. The Panthers have won the past four meetings, including a 31-14 victory in 1989. Navy's last win was in 1985, 21-7.

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Navy brings the nation's top rushing offense (348.4 yards a game) against a Pitt team that ranks ninth nationally in total defense in allowing 268.4 yards a game. Pitt is looking to snap a three-game losing streak before a national television audience, while Navy is hoping to win its third consecutive game after losing at Rutgers and to Ball State in the second and third weeks of the season.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Pitt's defense will have a major challenge against a Navy team determined to control the clock behind its triple-option offense. Quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada leads the team in rushing at 82.8 yards a game, but the Midshipmen average 5.8 yards per carry and have seven players with 100 or more rushing yards.

The Panthers will try to balance their offensive attack by letting freshman quarterback Pat Bostick throw the ball. Bostick attempted only three passes in the first half against Virginia. If Bostick can complete some early throws, it will open running lanes for freshman tailback LeSean McCoy. Although Navy is effective in run defense (172.2 yards), the Midshipmen are susceptible to the pass (281.4).

BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL

PITT

The Panthers' hopes begin with an offensive line that has been besieged by injuries and pre-snap penalties. If Pitt's front five can give Bostick time to throw and McCoy room to run, the offense has an opportunity to put up points against a Navy defense that is allowing opponents to score 31.4 points a game.

Defensively, the Panthers rank in the top 30 nationally in a handful of categories but have given up 78 points the past two games while opponents were working with short fields. Navy's offense presents Pitt's defense with a challenge, as stopping the run has been a long-standing issue.

Low · #3 (**permalink**) 10-10-2007, 06:38 AM

NAVY

Not only will Navy run the ball out of the triple-option offense, but coach Paul Johnson is a risk-taker with his play calling and the Midshipmen convert 49 percent of third-down attempts and 75 percent on fourth down. Look for Navy to sustain long, methodical drives.

Defensively, the Midshipmen have to show they can pressure the quarterback and not give up big plays. Every opponent has scored at least 19 points, with Rutgers (41) and Duke (43) scoring more than 40.

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Pitt quarterback Pat Bostick will get a chance to throw against Navy, which has the 107th-ranked passing defense in the nation.

Given the way Navy has failed to defend the pass this season, the Panthers should rely heavily on Bostick and his talented corps of receivers. The Midshipmen (3-2) visit Heinz Field tonight in a game that suddenly has become a must-win for Pitt (2-3), which has lost its past three games.

Navy is ranked 107th in the NCAA against the pass, having given up 282 yards per game as well as 12 touchdown passes.

Two weeks ago, the Midshipmen beat Duke, 46-43, but the Blue Devils had 428 yards passing and four touchdown passes. The week before, the Midshipmen gave up 277 yards passing and three touchdown passes in a 34-31 loss to Ball State.

Despite those statistics, Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt insists the Panthers' goal on offense remains the same: Establish a running game that sets up the passing game and, most of all, be balanced.

Whether the Panthers pass more remains to be seen. The coaches went into their last game -- a 44-14 loss at Virginia -- thinking they could keep it close with the running game and only rely on Bostick, who was making his first start, to make a few passes in very quarterback-friendly situations.

Instead, the Panthers fell behind, 27-0, before the end of the first quarter, and Bostick threw the ball a lot in the second half. He was 18 for 31 for 181 yards with an interception and a touchdown. That performance earned him more trust to throw the ball.

Wannstedt said the passing game -- and the Panthers' offense as a whole -- must be efficient tonight because Navy is capable of controlling the ball and limit Pitt's possessions.

"You're not going to get as many shots. [The Midshipmen have] only punted 10 times in five games. They'll go for it on fourth down more than anybody that I've ever seen and they put a lot of pressure on your defense. On the other side of that coin is when you get an opportunity, you have to take advantage of it."

"[The Midshipmen] are a 3-4 team," Wannstedt said. "They [also] go 4-3, they do a lot of zone pressures, and they mix up their coverages. They change things up on defense more than any team we've played. We need to take a step forward on offense. In order for us to win this game, we're going to have to score 28 points and we're not going to do that totally on the ground. We're going to come out of this game balanced and mix it up."
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On the patience of the defense being a key in stopping the option:

They (Navy) are going to make first downs and they're going to move the ball. You don't want to give up the big play. They're going to have an eight-minute drive and that is a win for us. If they can keep the ball for eight minutes and run 15 plays, I'll be the happiest guy in the world. That's how you defeat this offense, you make them earn every yard and eliminate the big plays. Another thing is that their quarterback can throw the ball and they've got some speed at receivers. The thing that makes it so challenging is that you can't commit everybody to the run. You have to be smart, because the minute that you do commit everyone they throw it up. If you watch their tape, even when they didn't complete passes, pretty much every time they throw it up somebody is wide open.

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NAVY NEWS

"If we can't run the ball, we are going to be in real trouble, I can tell you that," said Johnson, whose team leads the nation in rushing, with the option attack piling up 348 yards per game and scoring 16 touchdowns in the first five games.

—QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku Enhada has runs of 80 and 78 yards for touchdowns this season, the fifth- and sixth-longest runs in Navy history and the fourth- and 10th-longest runs in the country this season.

SCOUTING THE OFFENSE: It's all about the option running game and Navy leads the nation in rushing. They'll be tested this week, facing a defense that has allowed 111 yards per game on the ground, but has to get ready for the punishing attack. Navy might have to mix things up more this week to create more room to operate.

QUOTE TO NOTE: "I don't think you have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that we aren't going to go in there and beat them by throwing the ball." — Navy coach Paul Johnson about his No. 1 rushing attack facing a Pitt defense that's tough against the run.

STRATEGY AND PERSONNEL

THIS WEEK'S GAME: Navy at Pittsburgh, Oct. 10 — Paul Johnson is 16-7 as a coach when he has more than one week to prepare for a team and this is a team the Middies, a four-point underdog, can beat on the road. A win over a Big East team would be a huge step for Navy.

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Pittsburgh lost last three games, scoring total of 41 pts- they're playing freshman QB (Bostick) now and are -10 in turnovers the last three games (2-12). Navy is 3-2; they allowed 108 points in three-game stretch to Rutgers-Ball State-Duke- pass defense is major issue for them, as Duke had 428 passing yards against the Middies in 46-43 loss, had 36 points at the half. Least amount of yards Navy allowed in last four games is 474. Middies ran ball for 300+ yards in four of its five games, getting 254 vs Rutgers. This is game both teams think they should win.

TAKEN FROM 4-5 DIFF SPORTS AND NEWS SITES ON LINE

SORRY FOR ANY DUPLICATE INFO.....GL