Go Big Week 8 with VAFOY - Sports Betting Forums

GoBigorGoHome · #1 (**permalink**) 10-18-2007, 01:44 PM

ok let me get this right. the #2 team is playing an unranked team on the road, the line opened at -3 and the public is 83% on usf right now and the line is at -2. usf has come from nowhere to be #2 and is the cinderella story of the college football season, everyone is behind them and supporting them. why is this line so low? i think rutgers doesnt want to be the former cinderella that gets beaten by the new cinderella. i think rice has the game of his life tonight as its nearly do or die for this rutgers team. just doesnt make sense that a team that scores 64 points one week and the next week they are facing an unranked team and are only giving 2 screams out to the public to take this team.

sorry no vegas ass **** for me

RUTGER +2

25 Units

joepa66 · #2 (**permalink**) 10-18-2007, 01:47 PM

GL GoBiggie......

PSU-MAN · #3 (**permalink**) 10-18-2007, 02:11 PM

Help me guys...

Shouldn't the increase instead of decrease, if 83 % of the public is on it???

Nigel Tufnel · #4 (**permalink**) 10-18-2007, 02:54 PM

That's the point, PSU. Its not 83% of the money...its 83% of bets. If these numbers are correct, Joe Public is hitting USF at 83%, but more money is coming in on Rutgers. That's means those who have tons of cash to gamble are putting their cash on Rutgers.

EddieP · #5 (**permalink**) 10-18-2007, 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSU-MAN

Help me guys...

Shouldn't the increase instead of decrease, if 83 % of the public is on it???

speaking of vaf where is the vaf s founder?????? where the hell is pow???

EddieP · #6 (**permalink**) 10-18-2007, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoBigorGoHome

ok let me get this right. the #2 team is playing an unranked team on the road, the line opened at -3 and the public is 83% on usf right now and the line is at -2. usf has come from nowhere to be #2 and is the cinderella story of the college football season, everyone is behind them and supporting them. why is this line so low? i think rutgers doesnt want to be the former cinderella that gets beaten by the new cinderella. i think rice has the game of his life tonight as its nearly do or die for this rutgers team. just doesnt make sense that a team that scores 64 points one week and the next week they are facing an unranked team and are only giving 2 screams out to the public to take this team.

sorry no vegas ass **** for me

RUTGER +2

25 Units

go biggie better to be the giver than the taker

gl with your play, i just cant pick a side right now............

EddieP · #7 (**permalink**) 10-18-2007, 03:13 PM

on second thought you convinced me small play on rutgers........oh how i remember rutgers last year on a thursday night against louie........... lets see if they can make me some money for a change..............

btw i got them plus 3 @betus

PSU-MAN · #8 (**permalink**) 10-18-2007, 03:16 PM

thank you Nigel for the explanation. I appreciate it bro.

PhillyFan3 · #9 (**permalink**) 10-18-2007, 03:19 PM

gl tonight bro ...im on rutgers as well, line dropped to 1.5 at 5 dimes .... I did them earlier in the week and just got locked in on the ML as well, lets get it done tonight

homedawg · #10 (**permalink**) 10-18-2007, 03:29 PM

the books have been invitin' sofla money since the start, it opened at -3+102...

percentages are lower than you think, but joepub is definitely favoring sofla...

they are on both roadies and both overs tonight....

GL

pmann · #11 (**permalink**) 10-18-2007, 03:35 PM

OR maybe Vegas is doing this to make you think it is an ass **** so you will take Rutgers so 98% of the public money is not on S FL. Reverse Reverse pysco-gee

homedawg · #12 (**permalink**) 10-18-2007, 03:44 PM

Sportsbook Line Moves
The intelligent sportsbook betting player often lets the ebb and flow of sportsbook betting line moves work in his favor by simply allowing events to sort themselves out and the line to stabilize. Then he can make a sound and rational judgment on whether or not there is value on that line or if the general sports betting public took that line too far to the point where there is substantial value by going against the move.

If, when handicapping football, a sportsbook betting player likes the favorite of a game that opened at minus-seven and it has been bet up to minus-seven and a half that sportsbook betting player must act fast as the betting activity is trending towards the favorite and the higher the sports betting odds climb on that favorite, the less value that it offers.

An excellent indicator of which side a sportsbook betting player wants to be on in a football game is a scenario in which the sports betting line had a sharp early move, but then later in the week had an opposite move. The likely read on this movement is that the sharps and professionals caused the early move and then the general sports betting public caused the movement back towards where the original sports betting line was. The side that you would want to be on in this scenario should be obvious.

In addition to the general public reaction or overreaction to a line move, there is also late breaking news that can cause sportsbook betting odds to move in one direction or the other. Injuries, weather reports, colorful quotes, trades, etc. call all cause the sports betting odds to fluctuate throughout the week before a football game. When looking at football picks it is important to not allow yourself to be overly influenced by these factors when judging the overall value or lack of it in relation to the sports betting odds.

While the sportsbook betting odds will fluctuate throughout the week leading up to a football game those moves are for different reasons. Early the moves are likely a few large individual bets from professionals while late the moves are from countless small wagers of the general sports betting public. Online sportsbook betting websites and casino sportsbooks will try and counter this fluctuation by trying to steer the action in one direction of a sports betting line; the side that is least likely to win. Beware that they will move the sports betting line to entice football picks on the wrong side of the game.