check this out

[TheBeholdah]

if you had bet the other side of a 75% or more public play (sides and total) starting week 6 you would have went 56-33 ATS based on closing lines (there are a few totals that the public % wasnt available that may have changed the numbers very slightly) if you only played the sides you would have gone 23-9 ats. the week 8 numbers are staggering...

11-2 totals 8-1 sides

i looked into all 75% plays for the college year so far, the public cleaned up week 1 and thru the first 5 weeks were over .500 with totals, with sides the public was around .500 but since week 6 vegas has been cleaning up in these situations. it really makes sense it would be that way too since after 5 weeks vegas can make better lines. i dont think this is a trend that will change anytime soon, in the end vegas wins, i am goign to track this for the rest of the year and see if i can find public %'s from previous years(i dont know if thats possible), i;m also going to track it for college bball season, if it profitable next year i am going to put 1 unit on every game that falls in this situation and ride it out for the year, i will likely wait till week 3 to start it. but i will track this and see how it goes.

here are yearly numbers for fading 75% + sides

week 1: 6-13
since: 92-63
for the year: 98-76

if you expand it to 70%+ sides

for the year: 121-96, 114-81 if you take out week 1

fading totals 75% +

weeks 1-4: 29-37
since: 42-28

so for the year , if you faded all 75% or more sides and totals you would be:

169-141, and that is with a slow start. it looks like it would be best to wait a few weeks into the season to start the fade system. also doing this with reduced juice would be a must, many sites offer the -105 fridays but these numbers are based on closing lines so i'll have to figure that out.

i definately had too much time on my hands to do this but it is worth it cuz i may seriously do this system next year.

[akatdrake]

That's really interesting. Kepe it up and I'd be with you tailing that system. GL to you on all your plays this week.

[PSU-MAN]

Beholdah,

I was checking the same stats the last three weeks. The public was incorrect most of the time when 75% or more were on a team. I didnt get a chance to tally up week 8 as of yet.

[joepa66]

I'm not much into watching where the money is.....but that is some quite interesting stuff Beholdah. Keep us posted....I'm never one to shy away from making some cash!!!!