JoePa's CFB Week #10 All Hallows and Saints Picks

[joepa66]

UPDATED YTD: 33 - 25 - 2
UNITS: +9.5
Week #9: 4 - 2
MAC Football: 17 - 8 (#1:3-0, #2:2-1, #3:2-0, #4:1-1, #5:2-0, #6:1-1, #7:2-2, #8:2-2, #9:2-1)

Check it out again this Friday on Wjer.com.....I'll be part of the play-by-play team of the Dover vs. Canton South first round playoff game! I'll be sure to say hello to my Predict'em friends live on the air if you let me know you'll be listening as Whaleydog did last week. Game time is 7:30PM with pregame at 6:45! Right at gametime I'll give ya a shout out!


Friday -

TEMPLE +8.5 @ OhioU
BOWLING GREEN -7 vs. Akron

Saturday -

HOLY TOLEDO -5.5 vs. Eastern Michigan (get it before the line goes UP!)
BUFFALO +7 @ Miami,OH
THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSTIY -15.5 vs. Wisconsin
TULANE +7 vs. Tulsa
MIZZOU -3.5 @ Colorado
MARYLAND +3 @ North Carolina



OVEN MITT YTD: 4 - 5
Week #9: 1 - 0
Streak: 3 - 0

"Definitely"
ALABAMA +7.5 vs. Lsu

DAMN....he's on a 4-0 Streak!

GL to ya!

[Whaleydog]

GL this week Joepa....I like the play on the whistle and you are correct about the line jumping, at my book it opened at -7....so I bought the hook....I Hope you get the treats without the tricks

[hodown]

GL joepa

[NittanyLions94]

GL JoePA, I'll be making every effort to tune in to your broadcast and listen to a fellow Predictem member

[gopherbroke]

The Mitt's on fire!!!!

I'll listen to the whole game if you'll say "Minnesota Gopher fans better get their reservations ready for the Rose Bowl in Pasadena in the next couple years."

Good luck this weekend. Look forward to the picks, as always...

ARG! Just noticed my Kent St. line has jumped 2 pts!!!! Where did you find the early line? For the love of...

[joepa66]

Originally Posted by gopherbroke

The Mitt's on fire!!!!

EN FUEGO AS Q-UNIT SAYS......

I'll listen to the whole game if you'll say "Minnesota Gopher fans better get their reservations ready for the Rose Bowl in Pasadena in the next couple years."

LMFAO, not in your or my lifetime.......Bring Back Mason!

ARG! Just noticed my Kent St. line has jumped 2 pts!!!! Where did you find the early line? For the love of...

Kent would be a great play NOT to lose this week since they have a bye week....LMAO

Still have some more plays brewing for Friday and Saturday, just watching the lines....

[akatdrake]

JoePa - what's your advice for the Toledo line, I just checked and it's up at -7.5... tail or no tail? buy the hook to seven?

[joepa66]

Akatdrake:

Last week EMU's "big" win over Western went like this:

The Eastern Michigan defense forced six turnovers in a 19-2 victory over Western Michigan on Saturday. WMU was hampered throughout the day by turnovers. The Broncos, who came in averaging more than 30 points a game, fumbled twice inside the Eastern Michigan 20, including once on the goal line. The Eagles also intercepted three passes. I surmise that the Broncos were also looking ahead to Tuesday, Nov. 6th matchup at home vs. West division rival and defending champion Central Michigan instead of concerning themselves with a very good defensive team in EMU.

Toledo is 2nd in the MAC in scoring offense @ 41ppg, #1 in passing offense @ 296ypg and also #1 in rushing offense @ 239ypg which places them #1 in total offense @ 535ypg. EMU has a defense ranked 5th in scoring D giving up 25.2ppg and is also 5th in total defense giving up 378ypg. The EMU offense is very pedestrian ranked near the middle in all categories while UT's is as explodable as the Rocket D is implodable.....UT is dead last in total defense with 463.8ypg allowed and last in scoring D with 39.6ppg allowed.

I simply expect the home field advantage and UT relentless offense to overtake a much weaker EMU unit. And when I compared both team's MAC schedules: EMU lost to Ball State 38-16, won @ NIU 21-19, lost @ Ohio 48-42, and won last week vs. WMU 19-2...the total MAC record the teams on EMUs schedule is 8-13......UT's schedule features AWAY losses to Central Michigan 51-32 (it was close until the last 7 mins when the Chipps scored 2x), Western Michigan 42-28, Buffalo 43-33, and HOME wins over Ohio 43-40 and NIU 70-21 (the same team EMU beat 21-19). The combined record of the MAC teams that UT has beaten are 13-12. If you throw out NIU (0-5) from each team's schedule then EMU's MAC opponents are 8-8 and UT's 13-7.

Now to answer the initial question: EMU may be able to stay close for a while because UT is a second half team. At best me thinks this game is a 7-10 point win for the Rockets only because of their defense. However, EMU has a weak offense and if UT is not as obliging as WMU was with the freebies, it COULD be a blowout!

[gopherbroke]

Kent would be a great play NOT to lose this week since they have a bye week....LMAO

Youuuuuuuu smartass! I obviously meant Toledo...



Look forward to the rest of the picks...Just re-think the whole Gopher thing, huh? IT WOULD BE HILARIOUS!!!! [and you would probably get tossed out of the booth b/c they would undoubtedly think you were shooting coke or heroin...]

I never thought I'd say this #1: Temple is on a 3-game win streak. I never thought I'd say this #2: I'm considering betting on a Temple game again this year. Not a side, but a total. Temple's starting QB (i.e., their offense) is out for the season. I think their back-up is o.k., but real inconsistent from what I understand. Ohio’s defense is getting healthy. They showed up last week, anyway. Possible under?

[FlyersFan]

JoeP- i'll take the yearly obligitory shout out from you.........Sycamore made the playoffs this year down south and plays Moeller in the first round. I think StX will probably win the southern half again this year. They are the Moeller of the 70's and 80's. On a side note, i see you are on Toledo this week. I was really surprised you weren't on them last week. That was one of my favorite plays last week. GL!

[akatdrake]

Hey JoePa - thanks for the detailed explanation. Another thing, when you get the time to answer... when you go to make your picks for the week, do those sort of statistics and O/D, D/O matchups really make that much of a difference, in your opinion?

I mean like let's say last nights GB/DEN matchup with DEN's last ranked rush defense and GB's last ranked rush offense - something has got to give there, right? So do you play the unders hoping on GB taking advantage (or at least trying as they did last night fairly successfully)? I mean do those statistics REALLY influence you?

Nonetheless, love your picks and insight as always. I am going to do my best to listen to you on Friday night! w00t! Thanks in advance.

[MacDaddy]

JoePa,

Would you call my bookie and talk him into giving me the lines that you post? By the time he takes my call, I'm losing a couple of points.

Just kidding. On a serious note, the Temple line looks inflated to me. What am I missing? Temple is much improved and Ohio has been inconsistent to say the least. I'm with you on Temple, but I was thinking the line would be around 4 to 5.

Oh yeah, How can I get the Herd back into the MAC?

[oubiggie]

GL JoePa, go get'em this week. no losers this week!

[pmann]

GL Joe ...and ROLL TIDE oven Mitt

[Underdog88]

GL this week JoePa