MP's Birthday Week 11 Plays

[MParris86]

Hoping I can celebrate my B-day a day early with a win tonight. I'm going out on a limb and putting a small parlay wager on:

Toledo +210 and Over 67.5 (1.5 units to 7.7 units)

I was looking at the tale of the tape and neither team can really stop anyone. Toledo can't stop good passing attacks. In four games against teams with good passing stats (>250 pass ypg) Toledo has allowed 260 yards per game and 13 TDs to only 1 INT. Ball State can throw the ball around the field well, so it looks like Toledo will allow some points.

Ball State can't handle teams with good rushing attacks like Toledo. Navy racked up 521 rushing yards, CMU had 298 and Illinois had 324. Parmalee should have a big game against a porous front seven.

Toledo's offense has been on fire in recent weeks and Ball State doesn't present any challenges. The Rockets have scored 55 points per game over their last three games. Even if they only get to 40 I think they not only have a good shot of winning, but Ball State should put up at least 28 to push it over the total.

Toledo games have gone over the total 8 of 9 times this year and the over has hit in all 6 MAC games.

I'll cross my fingers for a shootout. They weather in the midwest in unusually warm and its a bright sunny day here in Cleveland so the elements shouldn't come into play.

Prediction: Toledo 44 Ball State 41


More plays to come later this week...

[joepa66]

BOL to ya Birthday Boy.......
NW is pretty big compared to Dover and rolled......

I am on the Over with ya but taking Cards.....they've played a better and bigger schedule of late even though the Rockets are on the ball lately and scoring loads of points.....ought to be a fun one. Only reason I'm on BSU is they are at home, need a win to become bowl eligible for the first time in a long while, and Nate Davis.......LOL

[MParris86]

Wouldn't be surprised if Ball State wins it, but anything can happen in a shootout type game and I think there's pretty good value in the Toledo ML considering they can score with anyone.

Just a small play for me, so if I hit it it will be a early birthday present to myself, if not then no big deal.

Thanks JoePa and best of luck this weekend (just not tonight )

[The Gipper]

GL & Happy B-day, MP!
Hope Robbie & the Irish give you a belated present Saturday with a WIN over Puke, errr...Duke.

[MParris86]

Thanks Gipper...

What a strange game last night...the first half was all Toledo and Parmale was unstoppable as I thought he would be and points were flying all over the place...then all of a sudden Toledo can't move the ball, gets shut out in the second half and Ball State rolls.

Vegas made out with the under hitting in that game. Weird game that I think frustrated alot of people.

Anyway, will post some others later. Just had to vent a bit.

[MParris86]

Consulted my MAC expert and am also taking the advice of JoePa and Thor and saying...

Miami -7.5 vs. Akron (2 units)

Miami should come out firing at home with a MAC East title within reach. Home teams seem to be hitting in MAC games recently. Miami hasn't lost to Akron at home in the last seven matchups in Oxford.

Prediction: Miami 27 Akron 14

[Whaleydog]

GL MP and Happy B'day

[joepa66]

Hope the birfday hangover is ok.....

Love the Redhawks in a route.....at least that wouldn't surprise me one bit!

[MParris86]

Unreal...Miami outgains Akron 2-1 and forces five turnovers...but all they could muster was one Goddamn defensive touchdown?

Should have bought the 0.5...

[MParris86]

Thursday night:

Oregon -12.5 at Arizona (4 units)

Everybody is over-analyzing this one IMO. Oregon is the superior talent and will finally have a chance to strut their stuff to the east coast viewers on national TV. Dixon will pick apart that Zona D.

Oregon saw OSU go down last week and can't afford to let the same happen...and they wont.

Prediction: Oregon 38 Arizona 21

[AuTiger51]

GL MP. with ya on the Ducks tonight.

[MParris86]

Unbelievable...first game this week Toledo blows a double digit first half lead...second game this week Miami throws three endzone interceptions...last night Dixon gets hurt in the first quarter and RYAN FREAKING LEAF's brother comes in as the backup. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? As soon as they showed Ryan Leaf on the sideline, I knew I was screwed.

That game should have been 15-0 three minutes in and Dixon was en fuego...but like Corso says, "Not so fast my friend..."

Adding:

Iowa State +26.5 vs. Kansas (2.5 units)

Just a few two many points here IMO. Don't want to go against the Jayhawks who have been good to me all year, but I think this line is a bit inflated. Kanas should win by 17-21.

Prediction: Kansas 35 Iowa State 17

I need a spark, so I'll play a 6-team, 7-pt teaser. (2.5 units to win 12.5 units)

CFlorida -6 at SMU (bout time for SMU to pack it in; UCF looking for a CUSA title)
EMichigan +21 vs. CMU (EMU should somewhat protect its home turf)
Georgia -0.5 vs. Kentucky (Dawgs better balanced at home)
GaTech -3 vs. UNC (Choice is back and UNC sucks on the road)
AirForce -4 vs. San Diego St (Chad Hall is best player and lots of momentum after beating ND)
Tennessee -5 vs. Vandy (Vols quietly putting together a nice season)